Dentalfloss
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NAZ 100 into the open
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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OIL into Nymex open
there is a reaction area @ 29th Oct
trendline drawn from that
tyest of trend is 53.50
rez starts at 53.00 area
horizontal supp marked
there is a reaction area @ 29th Oct
trendline drawn from that
tyest of trend is 53.50
rez starts at 53.00 area
horizontal supp marked
Dentalfloss
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A closer look at that rez area
$50.00 psycho area
$50.00 psycho area
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Dax
will the pivot hold..??
will the pivot hold..??
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Ditto FTSE
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Dow
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UJ
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NAZ 100
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Dow
24450 area held/our pivot...and off we went
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Mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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A busier day for data even if various political and trade related themes
continue to provide the mood music; digesting poor Australian Construction
output, Govt & BoE Brexit risk assessments and Kudlow comments; awaiting
Eurozone M3/Credit and US revised Q3 GDP, Goods Trade Balance and New Home
Sales; Powell speech, Banxico inflation report, German 10-yr & US 7-yr &
2-yr Frn auctions
- USA/China: Kudlow comments offer hope, though still very critical; relief
for credit risk assets likely to be short-lived given continued spread
widening underlines weight of bad positioning
- Powell speech: markets hoping for further signal that a rate pause may
not be far away, though Clarida comments imply Fed still some distance
away
- US Q3 GDP: already somewhat historical from a market perspective, very
modest revisions expected
- US Goods Trade Balance: marginally wider deficit seen, suggesting net
exports to continue to drag on Q4 GDP, though much less than Q3
- US New Home Sales: rebound expected, but still distorted by hurricane
effects
- Charts: USD, EUR & GBP HY Bonds index spreads, JPM EMBI avg spread
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today brings a goodly volume of top level data, and indeed central bank speakers, even if politics and trade tensions remain the overarching watchwords, with the relief reaction to White House adviser Kudlow's comments on the possibility of a US/China trade deal (which also had many criticsms of China's stance) underlining that markets continue to "dine out" on hope at any available opportunity. Unfortunately a look at the array of "risk" credit spread charts attached suggests that there are still a lot of bad positions to purge, in other words expect sellers into relief rallies in the credit space, at the very least. Statistically there are UK BRC Shop Prices and the first element of Australian GDP, Q3 Construction Output (very poor), to digest, while ahead lie Eurozone M3 & Private Sector Credit ahead of a rash of US data - revised Q3 GDP, Advance Goods Trade Balance, New Home Sales and the Richmond Fed surveys. In event terms, the BoE publishes its Financial Stability Report (earlier than originally scheduled) which will include the results of the latest bank 'stress tests', but this may be overshadowed by today's publication of Brexit economic im[act assessments from the UK government and the Bank of England. There are also some ECB speakers on hand ahead of a speech by Fed chair Powell to the Economic Club of New York, while the Banco de Mexico publishes its Q4 Inflation Report, which will bear much scrutiny as Banxico weighs up the risks from yet another MXN rout against the drop in oil prices, as well as the scope for, and impact of some expectedd fiscal largesse from the incoming Lopez Obrador regime. On the govt bond auction front, Germany sells EUR 3.0 Bln of 10-yr Bunds, while the complete this week's refunding exercise with $32.0 Bln of 7-yr T-notes. Powell's speech is unlikely to offer much that is different from last week's outing, though it follows yesterday's speech from vice chair Clarida, which markets spun as 'hawkish' due above all to the following observations. "As the economy has moved to a neighbourhood consistent with the Fed's dual-mandate objectives, risks have become more symmetric and less skewed to the downside than when the current rate cycle began three years ago. Raising rates too quickly could unnecessarily shorten the economic expansion, while moving too slowly could result in rising inflation and inflation expectations down the road that could be costly to reverse, as well as potentially pose financial stability risks." In truth this was nothing more than the usual line being peddled by the FOMC majority, but was spun as hawkish because markets were hoping for something definitively more dovish, i.e. a clearer hint that a pause in the rate hike cycle may be imminent (at least by mid-2019). To be honest that would not be 'data dependency', but rather markets holding out for some typical post GFC 'hand holding', which the Fed abandoned quite some time ago, once again testament to the fragility of financial markets in this QT era.
** U.S.A. - Q3 revised GDP, Oct advance Goods Trade Balance & New Home Sales **
- Q3 GDP is expected to be unrevised at 3.5% SAAR, with a marginal downward revision to 3.9% seen for Personal Consumption from 4.0%, which was stronger than expected in the advance estimate, by implication the marked slowdown reported in Business Investment is not expected to see much in the way of a revision, though an upward revision to Construction Spending may see a smaller drag from Non-residential Investment in Structures (prov. 7.9%). To a degree, markets have moved on from Q3, and are above focussed on the increasing likelihood that Business CapEx will again be weak in Q4, despite what should be some ongoing, even if fading support from this year's tax cuts. As the provisional data also highlighted Q3 saw the largest from Net Exports (-1.8 ppt) in 33 years, in part a reactive correction to front loading of exports in Q2 to beat the imposition of tariffs, but today's advance Goods Trade Balance will offer some insights on whether this will again weigh on Q4 GDP, with a modest widening to $-77.0 Bln from September's $-76.3 Bln anticipated, as attention swings to the top level meeting between the US and China on trade at this weekend's G-20 meeting. As for New Home Sales, the forecast looks for a 4.0% m/m bounce to an SAAR rate of 575K for October, after a partly hurricane related 5.5% m/m drop in September.
From Marc Ostwald
continue to provide the mood music; digesting poor Australian Construction
output, Govt & BoE Brexit risk assessments and Kudlow comments; awaiting
Eurozone M3/Credit and US revised Q3 GDP, Goods Trade Balance and New Home
Sales; Powell speech, Banxico inflation report, German 10-yr & US 7-yr &
2-yr Frn auctions
- USA/China: Kudlow comments offer hope, though still very critical; relief
for credit risk assets likely to be short-lived given continued spread
widening underlines weight of bad positioning
- Powell speech: markets hoping for further signal that a rate pause may
not be far away, though Clarida comments imply Fed still some distance
away
- US Q3 GDP: already somewhat historical from a market perspective, very
modest revisions expected
- US Goods Trade Balance: marginally wider deficit seen, suggesting net
exports to continue to drag on Q4 GDP, though much less than Q3
- US New Home Sales: rebound expected, but still distorted by hurricane
effects
- Charts: USD, EUR & GBP HY Bonds index spreads, JPM EMBI avg spread
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today brings a goodly volume of top level data, and indeed central bank speakers, even if politics and trade tensions remain the overarching watchwords, with the relief reaction to White House adviser Kudlow's comments on the possibility of a US/China trade deal (which also had many criticsms of China's stance) underlining that markets continue to "dine out" on hope at any available opportunity. Unfortunately a look at the array of "risk" credit spread charts attached suggests that there are still a lot of bad positions to purge, in other words expect sellers into relief rallies in the credit space, at the very least. Statistically there are UK BRC Shop Prices and the first element of Australian GDP, Q3 Construction Output (very poor), to digest, while ahead lie Eurozone M3 & Private Sector Credit ahead of a rash of US data - revised Q3 GDP, Advance Goods Trade Balance, New Home Sales and the Richmond Fed surveys. In event terms, the BoE publishes its Financial Stability Report (earlier than originally scheduled) which will include the results of the latest bank 'stress tests', but this may be overshadowed by today's publication of Brexit economic im[act assessments from the UK government and the Bank of England. There are also some ECB speakers on hand ahead of a speech by Fed chair Powell to the Economic Club of New York, while the Banco de Mexico publishes its Q4 Inflation Report, which will bear much scrutiny as Banxico weighs up the risks from yet another MXN rout against the drop in oil prices, as well as the scope for, and impact of some expectedd fiscal largesse from the incoming Lopez Obrador regime. On the govt bond auction front, Germany sells EUR 3.0 Bln of 10-yr Bunds, while the complete this week's refunding exercise with $32.0 Bln of 7-yr T-notes. Powell's speech is unlikely to offer much that is different from last week's outing, though it follows yesterday's speech from vice chair Clarida, which markets spun as 'hawkish' due above all to the following observations. "As the economy has moved to a neighbourhood consistent with the Fed's dual-mandate objectives, risks have become more symmetric and less skewed to the downside than when the current rate cycle began three years ago. Raising rates too quickly could unnecessarily shorten the economic expansion, while moving too slowly could result in rising inflation and inflation expectations down the road that could be costly to reverse, as well as potentially pose financial stability risks." In truth this was nothing more than the usual line being peddled by the FOMC majority, but was spun as hawkish because markets were hoping for something definitively more dovish, i.e. a clearer hint that a pause in the rate hike cycle may be imminent (at least by mid-2019). To be honest that would not be 'data dependency', but rather markets holding out for some typical post GFC 'hand holding', which the Fed abandoned quite some time ago, once again testament to the fragility of financial markets in this QT era.
** U.S.A. - Q3 revised GDP, Oct advance Goods Trade Balance & New Home Sales **
- Q3 GDP is expected to be unrevised at 3.5% SAAR, with a marginal downward revision to 3.9% seen for Personal Consumption from 4.0%, which was stronger than expected in the advance estimate, by implication the marked slowdown reported in Business Investment is not expected to see much in the way of a revision, though an upward revision to Construction Spending may see a smaller drag from Non-residential Investment in Structures (prov. 7.9%). To a degree, markets have moved on from Q3, and are above focussed on the increasing likelihood that Business CapEx will again be weak in Q4, despite what should be some ongoing, even if fading support from this year's tax cuts. As the provisional data also highlighted Q3 saw the largest from Net Exports (-1.8 ppt) in 33 years, in part a reactive correction to front loading of exports in Q2 to beat the imposition of tariffs, but today's advance Goods Trade Balance will offer some insights on whether this will again weigh on Q4 GDP, with a modest widening to $-77.0 Bln from September's $-76.3 Bln anticipated, as attention swings to the top level meeting between the US and China on trade at this weekend's G-20 meeting. As for New Home Sales, the forecast looks for a 4.0% m/m bounce to an SAAR rate of 575K for October, after a partly hurricane related 5.5% m/m drop in September.
From Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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our pivot area held at the open....excellent stuff
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dow into the open
a tad overstretched
a tad overstretched
Dentalfloss
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OIl
50.00 area bounce
bull test in 53.50 area
50.00 area bounce
bull test in 53.50 area
