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The Week Ahead - Brief Preview: 26 to 30 November 2018

This week has a busier run of data, which includes US Personal Income/PCE, revised Q3 GDP, advance Goods Trade Balance, New & Pending Home Sales, Chicago PMI as well as the FOMC minutes, while the Eurozone looks to CPI, and Japan has Tokyo CPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Unemployment, with Canada awaiting Q3 and monthly GDP.

The week ends with the G20 meeting in Argentina, specifically the much anticipated Trump Xi meeting. There will be plenty of Fed, ECB and BoE speak (including Powell & Draghi), while rates are seen unchanged in Israel and South Korea.

But thematically the Brexit cliff edge (specifically the bleak prospects for UK parliamentary approval of the deal), the Italian budget confrontation, along with an oil market that is ostensibly in meltdown (ahead of the early December OPEC+ meeting) will remain the key overarching themes.

Govt bond supply is dominated by the USA ($119 Bln of T-Notes & FRN, ca $150 Bln of T-bills), with Italy holdings its end of month BTPei, CTZ & multi-maturity BTP auctions, while Germany sells 10-yr.

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MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
 
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