Dentalfloss
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our lower pivot became rez
our lower pivot became rez
Trading with point and figure
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OIl updated
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back into our pivot area
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Mornin folks
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DAX into the open
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Dow into the open
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oil
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EURUSD in support
will it hold..??
will it hold..??
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Cable
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Ostwald, Marc
08:17 (40 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Digesting FOMC minutes, Brexit stalemate, Japan Trade and Oz Unemployment,
awaiting UK Retail Sales, US jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing;
EU talks on EU/Eurozone reforms, Fed speak, corporate earnings and
bond auctions in France, Spain & USA; Italy coalition divisions emerging;
Chile to hike rates for first time since 2015
- FOMC minutes: unsurprisingly 'hawkish', notable concern on some asset
prices
- UK Retail Sales: seen dropping m/m echoing anecdotal evidence, base
effects flattering y/y rate, momentum after solid summer slowing
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today's schedule is not short on data or event highlights, but the question is whether overarching political themes again usurp the centre of the stage, or as per Tuesday markets adopt an apropos nothing "look, today is an up / down (delete as appropriate) day, and the macro stuff is duly thrown under a bus". Data wise there are the Japanese Trade (weaker than expected, but wholly due to impact of weather and natural disaster, rather than trade tensions) and Australian Labour data (quirky fall in Unemployment Rate will be reversed) to digest ahead of UK Retail Sales and US weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing survey. In event terms, BoJ's Kuroda reprised recent policy comments, the Bank of Korea unsurprisingly held rates at 1.50% as expected, while ahead lie the second day of the EU summit, with the agenda dominated by the very thorny subject of EU/Eurozone reform, on which precisely zero progress has been made despite the glaringly pressing and acute needs, along with some Fed speak from Bullard and Quarles, and in Latin America's top rated economy Chile, a first rate hike since 2015 is expected. France and Spain hold multi-maturity bond auctions, the US sells a small amount of 30-yr TIPS, while the corporate earnings schedule features amongst others: Kuehne & Nagel, Novartis & SAP in Europe, while across the pond Amex, Bank of New York Mellon, Danaher, Paypal, Philip Morris, Skechers and Travellers are likely to be among the headliners. The FOMC minutes may be being termed 'hawkish', but in truth revealed little outside of some concern about a rising US dollar on EM countries, but this is hardly news, of more interest was the concern expressed about leveraged loans and prices in some other assets classes, which re-emphasizes our oft made point that the Fed is watching overall Financial conditions very closely, and for the time being this sustains their hawkish lean. As for the continued stalemate on Brexit talks, expectations were low, and all that was once again confirmed via way of chatter around extending the 'transition period' is that the EU remains the unchallenged gold medal champion of 'can kicking' (implicitly boding very poorly for today's Eu/Eurozone reform talks). A closer eye needs to be kept on Italy, as divisions between the League and 5 Star, as the latter's leader di Maio had suggested that the tax amnesty that 5 Star ostensibly backed, has been 'manipulated' to favour the mafia - for Italian speakers see: https://www.corriere.it/politica/18...io-df718aa0-d23a-11e8-9cd8-6bfe110c11f0.shtml
** U.K. - September Retail Sales **
- Following on from the lower than expected CPI data, which was far more a case of base effects than any substantive retail price falls in month to month terms and by extension that CPI has fewer implications for today's Retail Sales, above all given the only drop was paced by airfares (Transport -1.8% m/m). The consensus in m/m terms looks for a fall of -0.4% m/m, which fits with the narrative that the consumer spending "sugar high" of the summer was just that, even though y/y rates are seen rising 0.3 ppts to 3.8% ex-Auto fuel and headline 3.6%, which is due to last September's -0.7% m/m falling out of the comparison. The anecdotal evidence from BRC, Barclaycard and Visa Consumer Spending fits wel with the m/m consensus, and while the Average Weekly Earnings data would suggest consumers are gradually seeing a small improvement in take home pay, the impact on spending is likely to be small, above all given the rapid growth in consumer credit in recent years. As ever the political backdrop will be far more salient for short-term UK asset price and FX movements.
from Marc Ostwald
08:17 (40 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Digesting FOMC minutes, Brexit stalemate, Japan Trade and Oz Unemployment,
awaiting UK Retail Sales, US jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing;
EU talks on EU/Eurozone reforms, Fed speak, corporate earnings and
bond auctions in France, Spain & USA; Italy coalition divisions emerging;
Chile to hike rates for first time since 2015
- FOMC minutes: unsurprisingly 'hawkish', notable concern on some asset
prices
- UK Retail Sales: seen dropping m/m echoing anecdotal evidence, base
effects flattering y/y rate, momentum after solid summer slowing
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today's schedule is not short on data or event highlights, but the question is whether overarching political themes again usurp the centre of the stage, or as per Tuesday markets adopt an apropos nothing "look, today is an up / down (delete as appropriate) day, and the macro stuff is duly thrown under a bus". Data wise there are the Japanese Trade (weaker than expected, but wholly due to impact of weather and natural disaster, rather than trade tensions) and Australian Labour data (quirky fall in Unemployment Rate will be reversed) to digest ahead of UK Retail Sales and US weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing survey. In event terms, BoJ's Kuroda reprised recent policy comments, the Bank of Korea unsurprisingly held rates at 1.50% as expected, while ahead lie the second day of the EU summit, with the agenda dominated by the very thorny subject of EU/Eurozone reform, on which precisely zero progress has been made despite the glaringly pressing and acute needs, along with some Fed speak from Bullard and Quarles, and in Latin America's top rated economy Chile, a first rate hike since 2015 is expected. France and Spain hold multi-maturity bond auctions, the US sells a small amount of 30-yr TIPS, while the corporate earnings schedule features amongst others: Kuehne & Nagel, Novartis & SAP in Europe, while across the pond Amex, Bank of New York Mellon, Danaher, Paypal, Philip Morris, Skechers and Travellers are likely to be among the headliners. The FOMC minutes may be being termed 'hawkish', but in truth revealed little outside of some concern about a rising US dollar on EM countries, but this is hardly news, of more interest was the concern expressed about leveraged loans and prices in some other assets classes, which re-emphasizes our oft made point that the Fed is watching overall Financial conditions very closely, and for the time being this sustains their hawkish lean. As for the continued stalemate on Brexit talks, expectations were low, and all that was once again confirmed via way of chatter around extending the 'transition period' is that the EU remains the unchallenged gold medal champion of 'can kicking' (implicitly boding very poorly for today's Eu/Eurozone reform talks). A closer eye needs to be kept on Italy, as divisions between the League and 5 Star, as the latter's leader di Maio had suggested that the tax amnesty that 5 Star ostensibly backed, has been 'manipulated' to favour the mafia - for Italian speakers see: https://www.corriere.it/politica/18...io-df718aa0-d23a-11e8-9cd8-6bfe110c11f0.shtml
** U.K. - September Retail Sales **
- Following on from the lower than expected CPI data, which was far more a case of base effects than any substantive retail price falls in month to month terms and by extension that CPI has fewer implications for today's Retail Sales, above all given the only drop was paced by airfares (Transport -1.8% m/m). The consensus in m/m terms looks for a fall of -0.4% m/m, which fits with the narrative that the consumer spending "sugar high" of the summer was just that, even though y/y rates are seen rising 0.3 ppts to 3.8% ex-Auto fuel and headline 3.6%, which is due to last September's -0.7% m/m falling out of the comparison. The anecdotal evidence from BRC, Barclaycard and Visa Consumer Spending fits wel with the m/m consensus, and while the Average Weekly Earnings data would suggest consumers are gradually seeing a small improvement in take home pay, the impact on spending is likely to be small, above all given the rapid growth in consumer credit in recent years. As ever the political backdrop will be far more salient for short-term UK asset price and FX movements.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
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- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
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- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
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- 3,726
Dentalfloss
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Dow updated
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DAX
supp broken...finally
supp broken...finally
