Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

Naz 100

updated

 

[Dentalfloss]

all in mega rez now
care with sells

 

[Dentalfloss]

updated

updated

 

[Dentalfloss]

A tad more resilient

 

[Dentalfloss]

poss pivot

 

[Dentalfloss]

DAX
we gotta a feel of whats happening

 

[Dentalfloss]

Naz 100

 

[Dentalfloss]

Ostwald, Marc
Attachments
08:22 (1 hour ago)
to Marc

- EU Summit on Brexit in focus on busier day for data, cen. bank events;
UK inflation readings, US Housing Starts, Canada Manufacturing
Sales and Brazil monthly GDP; FOMC Minutes, BoE FPC minutes, ECB BOE &
Fed speakers; plenty more earnings; German long dated Bund sale

- UK CPI: benign base effects the key influence, suggest some downside
risks relative to consensus forecasts

- UK PPI: energy to boost Input prices; Output prices seen subdued

- US Housing Starts: distortions from hurricane related swings likly
to prevail through to the end of the year

- Charts: S&P 500 vs. US Junk Bond ETF; China 10 yr Bond future vs. CSI
300 future; Oman Oil futures vs Dubai Swaps; China & Japan US Treasury
holdings

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The EU leaders' summit discussion on Brexit (expectations low) will inevitably be the focal point on what is a busy day for data and events. Statistically there are Singapore Exports (down m/m but slightly better than expected) to digest ahead of the full gamut of UK inflation readings, Brazil monthly GDP, US Housing Starts and Canadian Manufacturing Sales, while the central bank schedule has BoE's FPC and Fed FOMC minutes and a raft of ECB, BoE and Fed speakers. Corporate earnings feature TSMC in Asia, ASML and Temenos in Europe, while non-financial dominate the US run with Abbott Laboratories, Alcoa and Kinder Morgan likely to be among the headlines grabbers, while Germany offers EUR 1.5 Bln of its 2044 Bund. The September FOMC minutes are unlikely to be that enlightening in so far as this was a press conference and forecast update meeting, though it may offer some further insights on the committee's decision to drop ‘accommodative’ from the statement, and obviously discussions on trade tensions, and perhaps financial market conditions (loose at the time of the meeting), which are (or rather) were to an extent a justification for Powell emphasizing that even though 'accommodative' was dropped from the statement, policy was still in fact 'accommodative' (however paradoxical that might appear). Otherwise the focus will be on whether the ostensible recovery in risk asset sentiment, above all evident in yesterday's equity rally, signals that last week's 'rout' was indeed nothing more than one of the now quite frequent storms in a tea cup (see chart of S&P500 vs US HY Bond ETF), though this clearly does not appear to apply to China.

** U.K. - September CPI, RPI & PPI, August ONS House Prices **
Following from a mixed labour report, which on the one hand saw a further unexpected "leg up" for Average Weekly Earnings to 2.7% vs. 2.6% y/y headline, and even better ex-Bonus to 3.1% vs. 2.9% y/y, the latter being the fastest pace since January 2009, attention swings to the run of inflation readings. Headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% m/m, after August's unexpectedly large, mainly clothing related 0.7% m/m, which implies a renewed dip in the y/y to 2.6% from 2.7%. Base effects are likely to play their part in the headline and core y/y dips, with food, petrol and computer games (i.e. leisure/entertainment) exercising a lot of upward pressure last year, but unlikely to match those rises this year, and perhaps some scope for a correction to the sharp rise in Clothing & Footwear prices last month; overall suggesting some mild downside risks, which would of course mean a more meaningful rise in real wages. Rising energy prices are expected to help to give a 0.9% m/m bump to PPI Input that would see the y/y rate rise to 9.2% from 8.7%, but PPI Output measures are projected to remain very restrained at 2.9% y/y headline and 2.3% y/y core. The ONS House Price measure has been gradually moving into line with other measures, with a drop to 2.8% y/y from 3.1% anticipated.

** U.S.A. - Sept Housing Starts **
- As has been well documented, hurricane effects (starting wih Florence, and then onto Michael) will impact this series quite heavily over the next couple of months, which will make the task of discerning a trend rather challenging, though one can assume that Q4 Construction Output / Housing Investment should get a boost, however transient. Eminently skills shortages in the sector will present a problem, as was all too evident in another blockbuster all-time record high print for Aug JOLTs Jobs Openings yesterday at 7.136 Mln, July revised up to 7.077 Mln. Be that as it may, the consensus sees Starts down 5.6% m/m to an SAAR rate of 1.21 Mln, above the recent lows of 1.174 & 1.177 Mln in June & July, with risks thanks to weather effects to the downside. By contrast Building Permits are seen bouncing a modest 2.0% m/m to 1.274 Mln, suggesting a still solid pipeline for Starts, with the large caveat being that Starts & Permits are very much a lagging 'shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted' indicator for the Housing Market.


from Marc Ostwald

 

[Dentalfloss]

UJ
$$$ a tad weak
comin into support now

 

[Dentalfloss]

oil
in rez

 

[Dentalfloss]

poss pivot

Dump
excellent stuff

 

[Dentalfloss]

DAX
we gotta a feel of whats happening

dumped our lower pivot aswell
excellent

 

[Dentalfloss]

NAZ 100

 

[Dentalfloss]

change reversal to 3
unsupported break

 

[Dentalfloss]

oil
in rez

yes sir

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dump
excellent stuff

updated

 

[Dentalfloss]

Naz 100

updated

 

[Dentalfloss]

all in mega rez now
care with sells

posted @ 7.51 AM
whacked

 

[Dentalfloss]

Naz 100 in our 7225 supp area now

 

[Dentalfloss]

DXY