Dentalfloss
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our 12126 area lined up
Was actually 12133
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Was actually 12133
Dentalfloss
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Overshot a tad
12127 became rez....and dump
12127 became rez....and dump
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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updated
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eurusd testing horizontal rez
Dentalfloss
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Cable in rez
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wuz wrong on cable yesterday..thought it was making a top
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take the signals..dont rely on instinct
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Dow 4 hour data
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oil
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Cable
testing rez
testing rez
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got messy now
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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The Week Ahead - Preview: 17 to 21 September 2018
Outside of the UK, Japan & Canada, the weekly data schedule has a distinctly second division feel to it, while the BoJ, SNB and Norges Bank top the run of central bank policy decisions, with a good number of ECB speakers as the Fed enters its usual purdah week ahead of the 26 September FOMC meeting. Politics and trade will continue to provide their occasional 'electric shock' therapy for markets, be that Trump's legal woes, China/US, NAFTA and other Trade tensions or indeed the trust steeds that are the Brexit/EU (above all informal EU leaders meeting on Wednesday) and Italy budget negotiations. The Eurozone dominates the govt bond auction calendar via was of German 2 & 10-yr, and multi-tranche sales in France and Germany, with UK offering 10-yr conventional Gilts, and the US 10-yr TIPS. Earnings will remain sparse, with the focus for equities on the 'quadruple witching' futures and options expiry in the US and Europe. Points of interest in the commodities space include the EU crop progress report, and the week ending OPEC / NOPEC 'technical' meeting.
- The G7 'flash' PMIs are due, with forecasts as ever rather agnostic, but in broad terms seeing Eurozone Manufacturing edging lower, but US edging up, with Services in both seen little changed, though in all cases stil suggesting a solid pace of expansion. For the US, the NY & Philly Fed surveys are seen moving in opposite direction, reversing August's strength and weakness respectively. The run of Housing data is anticipated to see a marginal drift in the NAHB survey, though still close to the cyclical high, while Starts are expected to rebound from recent weakness, and Existing Home Sales to edge up. As previously noted, unlike the boom of the 'noughties', housing investment is at best a marginal contributor to (or subtractor from) US GDP, per se the array of doom and gloomsters proclaiming another meltdown is imminent are best ignored.
In terms of the UK, a seasonally typical 0.5% m/m uptick in CPI (as summer sales discounts are unwound) aided by rising petrol prices will, thanks to base effects, see the y/y rates on headline and core drift down by 0.1 ppt to 2.4% and 1.8% respectively, though the much maligned RPI measure is seen unchanged at 3.2%. All in all this would underline the lack of pressure on the BoE to tighten policy in the near future, and all the more so given Brexit uncertainties. PPI Input pressures are expected to ease a little with a 0.4% m/m implying a base effect paced drop back in y/y terms to 9.1% from 10.9%, with headline and core PPI Output expected to see a tame 0.2% m/m rise, allowing y/y rates to dip to 2.9% and 2.1%; at some point rising food prices (primarily weather related) are likely to pressure prices a little higher. The Retail Sales roller coaster is seen persisting, with soft surveys (BRC, Visa, Barclaycard) doubtless predicating the anticipated -0.2% m/m headline following July's +0.7% and June's -0.5%, which would leave the more reliable 3mth/3mth comparison in marginally positive territory. PSNB (budget) and Rightmove House Prices are also due.
Over in Japan, Wednesday's Trade data are projected to show Exports picking up to 5.2% y/y, with rising oil prices expected to sustain Import growth at a barely changed 14.6% pace. Following on from the better than expected (though still low) Tokyo readings, National CPI is projected to rise to 1.1% from 0.9% y/y, however the core ex-Fresh Food & Energy measure is only seen edging up to 0.4% from 0.3%. Canada's CPI and Retail Sales are likely to show that while headline CPI remains elevated, core CPI is benign, and personal spending solid in trend terms, thus leaving the BoC with some discretion in policy terms, above all given the soft labour data (Full-time Employment and a dip in Wages). That said markets continue to discount a further rate hike on October 24 with a high degree of certainty (88.2%), in no small part due to Wilkins assertion that rates may well rise at the meeting, even if NAFTA talks were to breakdown completely. Manufacturing Sales are also due with a further solid 1.0% m/m rise seen following June's 1.1%. In New Zealand, Q2 GDP is expected to accelerate in q/q terms to 0.8% from 0.5%, but dip to 2.5% y/y from 2.7% - any downside miss may well prompt speculation about a RBNZ rate cut, given its distinctly dovish shift in Q3. South African CPI and Brazil's IBGE IPCA-15 inflation will be very closely watched, given that both countries are towards the epicentre of beleaguered EM countries/currencies.
- On the central bank front, it could be a potentially momentous week in signal terms in Western Europe, with Norges Bank expected to deliver on a very well telegraphed initial 25bps rate hike to 0.75%, the first hike by a central bank in the region for many, many ears. By contrast neither the BoJ nor Switzerland's SNB are expected to change policy rates or parameters, nor signal any prospect for a near term policy change. However it is worth bearing in mind Japan PM's comment Friday that the BoJ's easy policy should not continue forever, and that it he hopes to see it lay the groundwork for an exit, noting that job growth was an important factor as much as inflation, does perhaps hint at something more than the current 'stealth taper'. As for the SNB, the strength of Q2 GDP (augmented by relatively sharp upward revisions to Q1 and 2017 GDP) gives scope for a slightly less accommodative tone, but with the CHF strengthening, it will doubtless signal (once again) that it is still some distance from an exit. In the EM space, South Africa's SARB is expected to keep rates on hold at 6.50%, with this week's CPI projected to show a marginal y/y rise to leave headline and core unchanged at 5.1% and 4.3%, well within its 4-6% target range. However the dive in the ZAR, as with so many EM currencies, does impart upside risks on inflation going forward, and by extension rates, though with growth weak, and Unemployment high, it will doubtless be cautious. Elsewhere in the CEE / EM space, rates are seen on hold in Hungary, Mongolia, Paraguay and Ukraine.
(Calendar below)
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International
Outside of the UK, Japan & Canada, the weekly data schedule has a distinctly second division feel to it, while the BoJ, SNB and Norges Bank top the run of central bank policy decisions, with a good number of ECB speakers as the Fed enters its usual purdah week ahead of the 26 September FOMC meeting. Politics and trade will continue to provide their occasional 'electric shock' therapy for markets, be that Trump's legal woes, China/US, NAFTA and other Trade tensions or indeed the trust steeds that are the Brexit/EU (above all informal EU leaders meeting on Wednesday) and Italy budget negotiations. The Eurozone dominates the govt bond auction calendar via was of German 2 & 10-yr, and multi-tranche sales in France and Germany, with UK offering 10-yr conventional Gilts, and the US 10-yr TIPS. Earnings will remain sparse, with the focus for equities on the 'quadruple witching' futures and options expiry in the US and Europe. Points of interest in the commodities space include the EU crop progress report, and the week ending OPEC / NOPEC 'technical' meeting.
- The G7 'flash' PMIs are due, with forecasts as ever rather agnostic, but in broad terms seeing Eurozone Manufacturing edging lower, but US edging up, with Services in both seen little changed, though in all cases stil suggesting a solid pace of expansion. For the US, the NY & Philly Fed surveys are seen moving in opposite direction, reversing August's strength and weakness respectively. The run of Housing data is anticipated to see a marginal drift in the NAHB survey, though still close to the cyclical high, while Starts are expected to rebound from recent weakness, and Existing Home Sales to edge up. As previously noted, unlike the boom of the 'noughties', housing investment is at best a marginal contributor to (or subtractor from) US GDP, per se the array of doom and gloomsters proclaiming another meltdown is imminent are best ignored.
In terms of the UK, a seasonally typical 0.5% m/m uptick in CPI (as summer sales discounts are unwound) aided by rising petrol prices will, thanks to base effects, see the y/y rates on headline and core drift down by 0.1 ppt to 2.4% and 1.8% respectively, though the much maligned RPI measure is seen unchanged at 3.2%. All in all this would underline the lack of pressure on the BoE to tighten policy in the near future, and all the more so given Brexit uncertainties. PPI Input pressures are expected to ease a little with a 0.4% m/m implying a base effect paced drop back in y/y terms to 9.1% from 10.9%, with headline and core PPI Output expected to see a tame 0.2% m/m rise, allowing y/y rates to dip to 2.9% and 2.1%; at some point rising food prices (primarily weather related) are likely to pressure prices a little higher. The Retail Sales roller coaster is seen persisting, with soft surveys (BRC, Visa, Barclaycard) doubtless predicating the anticipated -0.2% m/m headline following July's +0.7% and June's -0.5%, which would leave the more reliable 3mth/3mth comparison in marginally positive territory. PSNB (budget) and Rightmove House Prices are also due.
Over in Japan, Wednesday's Trade data are projected to show Exports picking up to 5.2% y/y, with rising oil prices expected to sustain Import growth at a barely changed 14.6% pace. Following on from the better than expected (though still low) Tokyo readings, National CPI is projected to rise to 1.1% from 0.9% y/y, however the core ex-Fresh Food & Energy measure is only seen edging up to 0.4% from 0.3%. Canada's CPI and Retail Sales are likely to show that while headline CPI remains elevated, core CPI is benign, and personal spending solid in trend terms, thus leaving the BoC with some discretion in policy terms, above all given the soft labour data (Full-time Employment and a dip in Wages). That said markets continue to discount a further rate hike on October 24 with a high degree of certainty (88.2%), in no small part due to Wilkins assertion that rates may well rise at the meeting, even if NAFTA talks were to breakdown completely. Manufacturing Sales are also due with a further solid 1.0% m/m rise seen following June's 1.1%. In New Zealand, Q2 GDP is expected to accelerate in q/q terms to 0.8% from 0.5%, but dip to 2.5% y/y from 2.7% - any downside miss may well prompt speculation about a RBNZ rate cut, given its distinctly dovish shift in Q3. South African CPI and Brazil's IBGE IPCA-15 inflation will be very closely watched, given that both countries are towards the epicentre of beleaguered EM countries/currencies.
- On the central bank front, it could be a potentially momentous week in signal terms in Western Europe, with Norges Bank expected to deliver on a very well telegraphed initial 25bps rate hike to 0.75%, the first hike by a central bank in the region for many, many ears. By contrast neither the BoJ nor Switzerland's SNB are expected to change policy rates or parameters, nor signal any prospect for a near term policy change. However it is worth bearing in mind Japan PM's comment Friday that the BoJ's easy policy should not continue forever, and that it he hopes to see it lay the groundwork for an exit, noting that job growth was an important factor as much as inflation, does perhaps hint at something more than the current 'stealth taper'. As for the SNB, the strength of Q2 GDP (augmented by relatively sharp upward revisions to Q1 and 2017 GDP) gives scope for a slightly less accommodative tone, but with the CHF strengthening, it will doubtless signal (once again) that it is still some distance from an exit. In the EM space, South Africa's SARB is expected to keep rates on hold at 6.50%, with this week's CPI projected to show a marginal y/y rise to leave headline and core unchanged at 5.1% and 4.3%, well within its 4-6% target range. However the dive in the ZAR, as with so many EM currencies, does impart upside risks on inflation going forward, and by extension rates, though with growth weak, and Unemployment high, it will doubtless be cautious. Elsewhere in the CEE / EM space, rates are seen on hold in Hungary, Mongolia, Paraguay and Ukraine.
(Calendar below)
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International
Dentalfloss
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They are both in rez and wont yield
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When it gets messy like that then move to fx and oil
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Messy means..... The breakout areas are difficult to pinpoint. That is no good for us. The only way round that is to fiddle with the inputs and wait. Much rasiervto move on to fx and oil/gold
