Dentalfloss
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minor trend is up
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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30min is a general view
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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have added a horizontal in 12068 area
Dentalfloss
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is that a minor pullback or a new minor downtrend
difficult to tell
difficult to tell
Dentalfloss
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stops very tight now
Dentalfloss
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gettin near our 12089 poss supp
Dentalfloss
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bounce to test our pivot area
C
cantagril
Good morning gentlemen and udders,
No trading for me until next week. Day job getting in the way again
ATB for an interesting and profitable day ......and a good w/e
No trading for me until next week. Day job getting in the way again
ATB for an interesting and profitable day ......and a good w/e
Dentalfloss
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price broke out at pivot area
Dentalfloss
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to test our 12126 rez area
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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in supp now
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Nice scalp
good stuff
once you mark supp/rez then you have a good feel of what is happening
it does not have to be accurate as market goes where it wants..not to where you want it/levels
Dentalfloss
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Ostwald, Marc
Attachments
08:22 (8 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Digesting run of China activity indicators, awaiting US Retail Sales,
Industrial Production, Import Prices, Michigan Sentiment; Russia rate
decision, Carney speech and smattering of ECB speak
- China: Retail Sales and Industrial Production beat forecasts, but still
sluggish on any historical comparison; FAI growth at record low, though
Private Sector still strong, public sector likely restrained by local
govt financing scrutiny
- Russia rates: set to hold rates again, but likely to signal tightening
bias
- US Retail Sales: auto sales to restrain headline, core measures to remain
robust, some modest upside risks
- US Industrial Production: seen picking up vs. July; headline to be
supported by mining and utilities, downside risks on manufacturing
output given labour data, and potential drag from autos
- Charts: China FAI vs GDP; China Public vs Private Sector FAI
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
It's another data bonanza day, above all from China overnight (Retail Sales, Industrial Production, FAI & Unemployment), while the US dominates the remaining schedule (Retail Sales, Import Prices, Industrial Production, Business Inventories & prov. Michigan Sentiment), with Swedish CPI and Turkish monthly Current Account thrown into the mix for good measure. As expected Peru's central bank held rates (2.75% overnight), while Russia's Bank Rossi pronounces on rates later this morning, with the first run of post council meeting ECB speakers featuring Nowotny and Smets, and BoE's Carney and Chicago Fed's Evans also speaking. The overnight run of Chinese data was mixed, even if the slightly better than expected pick-up in Retail Sales (9.05 vs. f'cast 8.8%) moves rather more into line with anecdotal. Industrial Production also edged higher (6.1% y/y), though the details show Auto Output was close to flat, while Steel Output slowed from July, with a rise in Oil Output and Power Generation providing an offset. FAI slid again in headline terms, to a fresh low of just 5.3% y/y against forecasts of 5.6% and July's 5.5%, which suggests that the expected boost from a resumption of public sector infrastructure investment programmes is as yet not in evidence, though the still solid pace of Private Sector FAI (8.7% y/y vs. July 8.8%) implies that this is not due to a broad based squeeze, though the intense scrutiny of local govt financing may still be a considerable drag (see charts attached). The first rise in Crude Output in nearly 3 years would appear to be a case of state owned oil; companies heeding President Xi's call to boost domestic production in light of trade tensions, and facilitated by oil prices holding above their perceived breakeven rate of $70 per bbl. The continued robust pace of steel Output may be deceptive in so far as it looks to be a case of companies looking to boost output ahead of winter environmental curbs, which are anecdotally likely to be even harsher than usual this year. Still, the markets' focus remains firmly on US/China trade tension developments, rather than incoming macro data. Next week's data schedule will be rather modest, with a raft of surveys (regional Fed, flash PMIs), UK CPI, PPI & Retail Sales, US Housing data and Japan CPI on the data schedule, while there are rate decisions in Switzerland and South Africa.
** Russia - Bank Rossi rate decision **
- While Russia and Turkey are absolutely in very different places in terms of economic and monetary policy, today's Bank Rossi decision does follow the dramatic 625 bps rate hike to 24.0% by Turkey's TCMB. Be that as it may, it is seen holding rates at 7.25%, with monetary policy chief Zobotkin sounding less than hawkish when he spoke last week, though conceding that if inflation does appear to be accelerating to beyond 4.0% by year end due to the latest bout of sanction related RUB weakness, then some policy tightening will be needed, a sentiment also echoed by governor Nabiullina last Thursday. That is likely to be the message accompanying the highly likely no change decision today.
** U.S.A. - August Retail Sales & Industrial Production **
- Retail Sales inevitably get top billing among the raft of releases today, the strong start to Q3 seen across all measures in July is expected to be reprised in August (headline 0.4% m/m, ex-Autos 0.5% and core 0.4%, equating in y/y terms to 6.8%, 7.0% and 5.2%), with a very strong run of weekly Redbook Sales perhaps suggesting some upside risks, as does the surge in Consumer Confidence, even if Auto Sales continue to be very sluggish, at least in growth terms). Industrial Production is forecast to pick up from July's 0.1% to 0.3% m/m, with Manufacturing Output seen at 0.4% from July's 0.3%, though the risks appear to be to the downside given a flat m/m reading for Manufacturing hours in the labour data, which also saw a 3K drop in Manufacturing payrolls (with back month revisions also likely to weigh), and perhaps some drag from the auto assembly rate in light of sluggish sales in July & August. Headline production should however get a boost from strength in mining (i.e. oil) hours, and also from utilities output).
from Marc Ostwald
Attachments
08:22 (8 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Digesting run of China activity indicators, awaiting US Retail Sales,
Industrial Production, Import Prices, Michigan Sentiment; Russia rate
decision, Carney speech and smattering of ECB speak
- China: Retail Sales and Industrial Production beat forecasts, but still
sluggish on any historical comparison; FAI growth at record low, though
Private Sector still strong, public sector likely restrained by local
govt financing scrutiny
- Russia rates: set to hold rates again, but likely to signal tightening
bias
- US Retail Sales: auto sales to restrain headline, core measures to remain
robust, some modest upside risks
- US Industrial Production: seen picking up vs. July; headline to be
supported by mining and utilities, downside risks on manufacturing
output given labour data, and potential drag from autos
- Charts: China FAI vs GDP; China Public vs Private Sector FAI
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
It's another data bonanza day, above all from China overnight (Retail Sales, Industrial Production, FAI & Unemployment), while the US dominates the remaining schedule (Retail Sales, Import Prices, Industrial Production, Business Inventories & prov. Michigan Sentiment), with Swedish CPI and Turkish monthly Current Account thrown into the mix for good measure. As expected Peru's central bank held rates (2.75% overnight), while Russia's Bank Rossi pronounces on rates later this morning, with the first run of post council meeting ECB speakers featuring Nowotny and Smets, and BoE's Carney and Chicago Fed's Evans also speaking. The overnight run of Chinese data was mixed, even if the slightly better than expected pick-up in Retail Sales (9.05 vs. f'cast 8.8%) moves rather more into line with anecdotal. Industrial Production also edged higher (6.1% y/y), though the details show Auto Output was close to flat, while Steel Output slowed from July, with a rise in Oil Output and Power Generation providing an offset. FAI slid again in headline terms, to a fresh low of just 5.3% y/y against forecasts of 5.6% and July's 5.5%, which suggests that the expected boost from a resumption of public sector infrastructure investment programmes is as yet not in evidence, though the still solid pace of Private Sector FAI (8.7% y/y vs. July 8.8%) implies that this is not due to a broad based squeeze, though the intense scrutiny of local govt financing may still be a considerable drag (see charts attached). The first rise in Crude Output in nearly 3 years would appear to be a case of state owned oil; companies heeding President Xi's call to boost domestic production in light of trade tensions, and facilitated by oil prices holding above their perceived breakeven rate of $70 per bbl. The continued robust pace of steel Output may be deceptive in so far as it looks to be a case of companies looking to boost output ahead of winter environmental curbs, which are anecdotally likely to be even harsher than usual this year. Still, the markets' focus remains firmly on US/China trade tension developments, rather than incoming macro data. Next week's data schedule will be rather modest, with a raft of surveys (regional Fed, flash PMIs), UK CPI, PPI & Retail Sales, US Housing data and Japan CPI on the data schedule, while there are rate decisions in Switzerland and South Africa.
** Russia - Bank Rossi rate decision **
- While Russia and Turkey are absolutely in very different places in terms of economic and monetary policy, today's Bank Rossi decision does follow the dramatic 625 bps rate hike to 24.0% by Turkey's TCMB. Be that as it may, it is seen holding rates at 7.25%, with monetary policy chief Zobotkin sounding less than hawkish when he spoke last week, though conceding that if inflation does appear to be accelerating to beyond 4.0% by year end due to the latest bout of sanction related RUB weakness, then some policy tightening will be needed, a sentiment also echoed by governor Nabiullina last Thursday. That is likely to be the message accompanying the highly likely no change decision today.
** U.S.A. - August Retail Sales & Industrial Production **
- Retail Sales inevitably get top billing among the raft of releases today, the strong start to Q3 seen across all measures in July is expected to be reprised in August (headline 0.4% m/m, ex-Autos 0.5% and core 0.4%, equating in y/y terms to 6.8%, 7.0% and 5.2%), with a very strong run of weekly Redbook Sales perhaps suggesting some upside risks, as does the surge in Consumer Confidence, even if Auto Sales continue to be very sluggish, at least in growth terms). Industrial Production is forecast to pick up from July's 0.1% to 0.3% m/m, with Manufacturing Output seen at 0.4% from July's 0.3%, though the risks appear to be to the downside given a flat m/m reading for Manufacturing hours in the labour data, which also saw a 3K drop in Manufacturing payrolls (with back month revisions also likely to weigh), and perhaps some drag from the auto assembly rate in light of sluggish sales in July & August. Headline production should however get a boost from strength in mining (i.e. oil) hours, and also from utilities output).
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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our 12126 area lined up
In the past I would have gotten back in somewhere at 12120 as that was previous marked rez but rez actually moved to 12125...that's where I've been caught out in the past. Had to have larger stops.
Now I'm just trying to get a couple of trades a day which have a higher chance of success and minimise the downside quantum risk. Hard to sit on hands
