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Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Atilla
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Morning chasps...you're unusually matinal Atilla
CAC...I tried selling it yesterday with excretory results so perhaps I should buy it. Who knows? I certainly don't. The 5 min is bearish and the End is Nigh ....
I'm either that or nocturnal these days as don't get to play as much as I would like. This week is very busy with work and social activities and life must go on.
I do try and pop in to play catch up with you and Dentists super posts.
With Trump over here news should be bullish or favourable but one never knows as it could be similar to Trudeau's experience when Trump accused him of stabbing US in the back. There is that possibility Trump will not like the big baby balloon over London and true to form end up acting like one.
:cheesy:
Dentalfloss
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Alors.....
C
cantagril
Dentalfloss
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Alors.....
You bloody Englishmen....We will beat you in the final
Waistcoat ...or no waistcoat
C
cantagril
Dentalfloss
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C
cantagril
C
cantagril
Next one at 5360...now trading at 5375:whistling
Dentalfloss
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Trade wars roar back to scupper mindless 'risk on' move; NATO meeting, raft of
central bank speakers, Canada and Poland rate decisions; digesting better than
expected Japan Orders and Australia Consumer Confidence ahead of US PPI;
Germany, Portugal and US to auction govt bonds
- Trade wars: focus on China response to latest round of US tariffs;
fall-out to be felt most acutely by Canada and EU
- US PPI: modest m/m gain expected, focus on any evidence of trade
tariff related pressures; Trade Services as ever the wild card
- Canada rates: rate hike baked in the cake, likely to stick to data
and NAFTA dependency on outlook; MPR forecast revisions in focus
- Charts: US HY Bond Avg Spread vs S&P500; WTI Oil & Copper futures; BoC
rate probabilities & CAD CFTC COT net position
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
While the statistical schedule has some items of note - Japan Machinery Orders, US PPI and Turkey's Current Account (all the more sensitive after Erdogan's nepotistic indulgence in appointing his son-in-law as Finance Minister yesterday); it is the run of central bank and political events that will likely dominate. The latter sees an array of ECB, BoE and Fed speakers including Carney, Draghi & Williams, rate decisions in Canada and Poland, the NATO summit and a meeting of the France and German Finance Ministers, while German (10yr), US (10yr) and Portugal (10 & 16-yr) sell bonds. But as the Trump regime once again heads down the suicide alley of imposing further trade sanctions on China, which looks to be an even bigger faux pas, in so far as it follows hot on the heels of yesterday's US accusation that China is hampering negotiations with North Korea on denuclearization, it will be trade and political tensions that once again dictate market sentiment. The really foolish element in all of this is that the damage from such measures will above all be felt by Canada and the EU economies, rather than China. The question is as ever how China responds, with indications suggesting that it will not be looking at 'knock for knock' measures, but rather at higher level targets, which implies agriculture and measures to obstruct / hamper US companies doing business in China. In turn all of this underlines that the start of week 'risk on' sentiment in markets was yet another display of 'weight of cash inflows' complacency, born on the seemingly inextinguishable Pavlovian diktat of TINA and FOMO. Poland's NBP will definitely keep rates on hold when it meets today, and governor Glapinski continues to signal that rates are likely to be on hold well into 2019, though other MPC members think that a rate hike might need to be considered by the end of 2018. NY Fed's Williams speech requires particular attention, as markets continue to err to the dovish side on the likely Fed rate trajectory.
** U.S.A. - June PPI **
- This should attract attention, and not just for some pointers on tomorrow's CPI, but above all given a good deal of chatter about trade tariff related pressures being passed through to end users, even if May's rise was largely a function of rising transport costs (i.e. energy). That said a similar consensus to CPI of 0.2% m/m hardly suggests anything that will really worry the FOMC, with the headline y/y rate seen unchanged at 3.1%, and the ex-Food & Energy at 2.6% from 2.4%. As ever much will depend on the volatile Trade Services component, while a close eye should continue to be kept on Steel Mill Products that jumped 4.3% in May, as well as what appears to be some modest upward pressure in Capital Goods.
** Canada - BoC rate decision and Monetary Policy Report **
- Despite a rather mixed set of labour data (Employment +31.8K, Full-time 9.1K, Wages 3.5 y/y from 3.9% and Unemployment Rate rising to 6.0%), a further 25 bps rate hike is expected at the Bank of Canada policy meeting, which will also be accompanied by its latest Monetary Policy Report and press conference. The message from Poloz and Wilkins is likely to remain the same, i.e. that their rate trajectory remains data dependent, and there remain considerable risks to the outlook for the economy and policy, above all due to trade tensions, even if they are basically happy with the inflation outlook. How the CAD responds will be of interest, in so far as Monday's CFTC report highlighted a sharp rise in the CAD net short to 49.5K, still a far cry from the 99.1K short in May 2017, but nearing prior inflection points in 2014, 2015 and 2016, typically in the 60-70K net short area.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
*******************
From Marc Ostwald
central bank speakers, Canada and Poland rate decisions; digesting better than
expected Japan Orders and Australia Consumer Confidence ahead of US PPI;
Germany, Portugal and US to auction govt bonds
- Trade wars: focus on China response to latest round of US tariffs;
fall-out to be felt most acutely by Canada and EU
- US PPI: modest m/m gain expected, focus on any evidence of trade
tariff related pressures; Trade Services as ever the wild card
- Canada rates: rate hike baked in the cake, likely to stick to data
and NAFTA dependency on outlook; MPR forecast revisions in focus
- Charts: US HY Bond Avg Spread vs S&P500; WTI Oil & Copper futures; BoC
rate probabilities & CAD CFTC COT net position
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
While the statistical schedule has some items of note - Japan Machinery Orders, US PPI and Turkey's Current Account (all the more sensitive after Erdogan's nepotistic indulgence in appointing his son-in-law as Finance Minister yesterday); it is the run of central bank and political events that will likely dominate. The latter sees an array of ECB, BoE and Fed speakers including Carney, Draghi & Williams, rate decisions in Canada and Poland, the NATO summit and a meeting of the France and German Finance Ministers, while German (10yr), US (10yr) and Portugal (10 & 16-yr) sell bonds. But as the Trump regime once again heads down the suicide alley of imposing further trade sanctions on China, which looks to be an even bigger faux pas, in so far as it follows hot on the heels of yesterday's US accusation that China is hampering negotiations with North Korea on denuclearization, it will be trade and political tensions that once again dictate market sentiment. The really foolish element in all of this is that the damage from such measures will above all be felt by Canada and the EU economies, rather than China. The question is as ever how China responds, with indications suggesting that it will not be looking at 'knock for knock' measures, but rather at higher level targets, which implies agriculture and measures to obstruct / hamper US companies doing business in China. In turn all of this underlines that the start of week 'risk on' sentiment in markets was yet another display of 'weight of cash inflows' complacency, born on the seemingly inextinguishable Pavlovian diktat of TINA and FOMO. Poland's NBP will definitely keep rates on hold when it meets today, and governor Glapinski continues to signal that rates are likely to be on hold well into 2019, though other MPC members think that a rate hike might need to be considered by the end of 2018. NY Fed's Williams speech requires particular attention, as markets continue to err to the dovish side on the likely Fed rate trajectory.
** U.S.A. - June PPI **
- This should attract attention, and not just for some pointers on tomorrow's CPI, but above all given a good deal of chatter about trade tariff related pressures being passed through to end users, even if May's rise was largely a function of rising transport costs (i.e. energy). That said a similar consensus to CPI of 0.2% m/m hardly suggests anything that will really worry the FOMC, with the headline y/y rate seen unchanged at 3.1%, and the ex-Food & Energy at 2.6% from 2.4%. As ever much will depend on the volatile Trade Services component, while a close eye should continue to be kept on Steel Mill Products that jumped 4.3% in May, as well as what appears to be some modest upward pressure in Capital Goods.
** Canada - BoC rate decision and Monetary Policy Report **
- Despite a rather mixed set of labour data (Employment +31.8K, Full-time 9.1K, Wages 3.5 y/y from 3.9% and Unemployment Rate rising to 6.0%), a further 25 bps rate hike is expected at the Bank of Canada policy meeting, which will also be accompanied by its latest Monetary Policy Report and press conference. The message from Poloz and Wilkins is likely to remain the same, i.e. that their rate trajectory remains data dependent, and there remain considerable risks to the outlook for the economy and policy, above all due to trade tensions, even if they are basically happy with the inflation outlook. How the CAD responds will be of interest, in so far as Monday's CFTC report highlighted a sharp rise in the CAD net short to 49.5K, still a far cry from the 99.1K short in May 2017, but nearing prior inflection points in 2014, 2015 and 2016, typically in the 60-70K net short area.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
*******************
From Marc Ostwald
C
cantagril
Added 1l at 5380
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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still not quite into our 50% area
think it could have done enough for now
think it could have done enough for now
Dentalfloss
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Hopefully ...Carney will be wearing a waistcoat when he speaks today
Dentalfloss
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SPX
range constrition.....somethin brewin
range constrition.....somethin brewin
Dentalfloss
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Wednesday
Dentalfloss
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we might start to rally a bit now
still a falling knife until we see reaction at 2772 area
still a falling knife until we see reaction at 2772 area
Dentalfloss
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dax...seems to be gettin support
Dentalfloss
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12460 needs to be supp on p/b
Dentalfloss
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ditto 24700 on dow
