Dentalfloss
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If we break the pivot area
first rez is 2787-2790 area
first rez is 2787-2790 area
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Canta...be ready at both ends
OCO
OCO
Dentalfloss
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- UK dominates in data terms (monthly GDP, Services, BRC, Ind Production,
Trade) and politically; Norway CPI, French/Italy Production, German ZEW
and US NFIB Small Business Optimism/JOLTs Jobs complete schedule;
EU/US meetings also in focus; Netherlands, Germany & US to sell bonds
- UK: first ever monthly GDP seen posting solid gain on Services and
Production/Construction recovery; Trade deficit set to narrow, but
remain wide
- China inflation: unwind of Food price fall edges CPI higher; weaker
CNY, domestic supply constraints and higher oil prices boost PPI -
but unlikely to trouble PBoC
- USA: NFIB likely to edge down from 35-yr high, some downside risks due
to trade tensions, but to remain strong overall
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
If Monday was notable for both its dearth of scheduled events and markets' increasingly deadened reaction function (thanks to the rather ominous combination of central bank unconventional liquidity and post GFC regulations), then today's schedule has rather more for markets to crack their teeth on, even if indifference and complacency do appear to be the current Zeitgeist. Having digested the monthly China inflation data, the UK dominates the day's with a deluge of statistics, ranging from the overnight BRC Retail Sales through Industrial production, Trade and Construction Output to the Index of Services and the first ever iteration of monthly GDP, with the NIESR's GDP estimate also due. Elsewhere Norwegian CPI, French (disappointing at -0.2% m/m vs. expected 0.7% m/m) and Italian Industrial Production are on hand ahead of Germany's ZEW survey (Expectations -18.0 from -16.1, Current Situation 78.9 vs. 80.6) and the rather more meaningful US NFIB Small Business Optimism. There is also a smattering of ECB and Fed speak, as well as govt bond auctions in the Netherlands (10-yr), Germany (Inflation-linked) and the start of the US fortnightly refunding with $33.0 Bln of 3-yr. Politically, the US/EU meetings in the context of the US-EU Energy Council and the 'Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS' will be need to be watched, given rifts over defence, and trade tensions.
** U.K. - Monthly GDP, Index of Services, Industrial Production, Trade Balance **
- If there was a competition to try and pack as many key economic indicators into one day, then the UK would be in pole position today; though the question is whether markets will really be interested, barring a major surprise as was the case last month, and obviously with the politics 'wild card' hovering in the wings, as the UK govt becomes an ever greater farcical spectacle. Be that as it may (sic!), having digested generally positive BRC Retail Sales (1.1% y/y) and Barclaycard Consumer Spending (5.1% y/y) reports, attention turns to the various monthly activity data. Forecasts assume that the weak start to the quarter for Industrial Production, Construction Output and Trade seen in April was primarily a hangover from Q1 (with the BoE suggesting a transitory bout of involuntary inventory accumulation), with median forecasts looking for 0.5% m/m, 0.3% and £-11.95 Bln respectively. Rather more sensitive for the BoE rate view will be the May Index of Services, seen at 0.2% m/m to boost the 3mth/3mth reading up to 0.4%, which will be accompanied by the ONS new monthly GDP indicator, which is seen posting a solid 0.3% m/m, in no small due to the strong May Retail Sales boosting personal consumption.
** China - June CPI/PPI **
- While PPI turned out slightly above the forecast 4.5% at 4.7% y/y (and May's 4.1%), this owed everything to higher oil prices, a weaker CNY and the supply constraints imposed due to environmental restrictions and the reining in of capacity constraints, rather than anything trade related. As for CPI, this was exactly in line with forecasts at 1.9% y/y (May 1.8%), reflecting some further unwind of food price deflation that dragged lower after the LNY (Food 0.3% y/y vs. May 0.1%), with Non-Food prices continuing to post a very steady profile at an unchanged 2.2%. Some further CNY and trade tariff related pressures will exercise further upward pressure in coming months, but it is all too clear that the Chinese authorities are primarily focussed on measures to sustain growth, and indeed job creation, and debt / credit related problems, and that inflation is very low down on their list of concerns.
** U.S.A. - June NFIB Small Business Optimism / May JOLTS Job Openings **
The NFIB Small Business Optimism is expected to edge down to 106.9 after reach its highest level since September 1983 at 107.8 in May. The latter report was notable for a new cyclical high on Selling Prices at 19 vs. April's 14, while expectations of a 'better economy' rebounded sharply to 37% from 30%, and the 'Good Time to Expand' index hit a new cyclical high at 34% (April 27%). Trade tensions may well dampen economic expectations as they did most notably in March, but other indicators are likely to signal a very robust pace of activity. JOLTS Job Openings are easing to 6.66 Mln after reaching an all-time high of 6.698 Mln in April, an increase of over 700K since February's (also very strong) 6.078 Mln.
from Marc Ostwald
Trade) and politically; Norway CPI, French/Italy Production, German ZEW
and US NFIB Small Business Optimism/JOLTs Jobs complete schedule;
EU/US meetings also in focus; Netherlands, Germany & US to sell bonds
- UK: first ever monthly GDP seen posting solid gain on Services and
Production/Construction recovery; Trade deficit set to narrow, but
remain wide
- China inflation: unwind of Food price fall edges CPI higher; weaker
CNY, domestic supply constraints and higher oil prices boost PPI -
but unlikely to trouble PBoC
- USA: NFIB likely to edge down from 35-yr high, some downside risks due
to trade tensions, but to remain strong overall
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
If Monday was notable for both its dearth of scheduled events and markets' increasingly deadened reaction function (thanks to the rather ominous combination of central bank unconventional liquidity and post GFC regulations), then today's schedule has rather more for markets to crack their teeth on, even if indifference and complacency do appear to be the current Zeitgeist. Having digested the monthly China inflation data, the UK dominates the day's with a deluge of statistics, ranging from the overnight BRC Retail Sales through Industrial production, Trade and Construction Output to the Index of Services and the first ever iteration of monthly GDP, with the NIESR's GDP estimate also due. Elsewhere Norwegian CPI, French (disappointing at -0.2% m/m vs. expected 0.7% m/m) and Italian Industrial Production are on hand ahead of Germany's ZEW survey (Expectations -18.0 from -16.1, Current Situation 78.9 vs. 80.6) and the rather more meaningful US NFIB Small Business Optimism. There is also a smattering of ECB and Fed speak, as well as govt bond auctions in the Netherlands (10-yr), Germany (Inflation-linked) and the start of the US fortnightly refunding with $33.0 Bln of 3-yr. Politically, the US/EU meetings in the context of the US-EU Energy Council and the 'Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS' will be need to be watched, given rifts over defence, and trade tensions.
** U.K. - Monthly GDP, Index of Services, Industrial Production, Trade Balance **
- If there was a competition to try and pack as many key economic indicators into one day, then the UK would be in pole position today; though the question is whether markets will really be interested, barring a major surprise as was the case last month, and obviously with the politics 'wild card' hovering in the wings, as the UK govt becomes an ever greater farcical spectacle. Be that as it may (sic!), having digested generally positive BRC Retail Sales (1.1% y/y) and Barclaycard Consumer Spending (5.1% y/y) reports, attention turns to the various monthly activity data. Forecasts assume that the weak start to the quarter for Industrial Production, Construction Output and Trade seen in April was primarily a hangover from Q1 (with the BoE suggesting a transitory bout of involuntary inventory accumulation), with median forecasts looking for 0.5% m/m, 0.3% and £-11.95 Bln respectively. Rather more sensitive for the BoE rate view will be the May Index of Services, seen at 0.2% m/m to boost the 3mth/3mth reading up to 0.4%, which will be accompanied by the ONS new monthly GDP indicator, which is seen posting a solid 0.3% m/m, in no small due to the strong May Retail Sales boosting personal consumption.
** China - June CPI/PPI **
- While PPI turned out slightly above the forecast 4.5% at 4.7% y/y (and May's 4.1%), this owed everything to higher oil prices, a weaker CNY and the supply constraints imposed due to environmental restrictions and the reining in of capacity constraints, rather than anything trade related. As for CPI, this was exactly in line with forecasts at 1.9% y/y (May 1.8%), reflecting some further unwind of food price deflation that dragged lower after the LNY (Food 0.3% y/y vs. May 0.1%), with Non-Food prices continuing to post a very steady profile at an unchanged 2.2%. Some further CNY and trade tariff related pressures will exercise further upward pressure in coming months, but it is all too clear that the Chinese authorities are primarily focussed on measures to sustain growth, and indeed job creation, and debt / credit related problems, and that inflation is very low down on their list of concerns.
** U.S.A. - June NFIB Small Business Optimism / May JOLTS Job Openings **
The NFIB Small Business Optimism is expected to edge down to 106.9 after reach its highest level since September 1983 at 107.8 in May. The latter report was notable for a new cyclical high on Selling Prices at 19 vs. April's 14, while expectations of a 'better economy' rebounded sharply to 37% from 30%, and the 'Good Time to Expand' index hit a new cyclical high at 34% (April 27%). Trade tensions may well dampen economic expectations as they did most notably in March, but other indicators are likely to signal a very robust pace of activity. JOLTS Job Openings are easing to 6.66 Mln after reaching an all-time high of 6.698 Mln in April, an increase of over 700K since February's (also very strong) 6.078 Mln.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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hiding below the pivot..lol
Dentalfloss
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Dax went with it
excellent stuff
excellent stuff
Dentalfloss
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ditto ftse
C
cantagril
Added another at 35. Same targets.
C
cantagril
Long at 1.3124. Stop at +1.
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Dentalfloss
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GBP=pips
as we said at the weekend
as we said at the weekend
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Dentalfloss
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this is gettin creepy
Last edited:
C
cantagril
CAC still CAC after the cac industrial production numbers. Looking quite perky as they weren't quite as catastrophic as usual
Might try a long if I can get a better price...5385???
Indeed.
I was expecting some movement after the German /EU sediment numbers and reckoned that it would be southerly. Needless to say, the lower orifice has yet to be pleasured so I'm now looking at 5420/25 as an area of interest....on any other index this would be an area of utter boredom. Still, since the whole of France is still reeling from the Spanish rosé scandal (which has been common knowledge for at least 15 years) I feel there might be a modest p/b so the French can claim that the CAC is a real index and statistically significant bla bla bla etc etc
C
cantagril
Yesterday 18h15
Watched it down to 7677 and out at 7685 +23
Itching to do it again ( I think Attila's complaint is contagious after all)
Watched it down to 7677 and out at 7685 +23
Itching to do it again ( I think Attila's complaint is contagious after all)
Dentalfloss
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C
cantagril
Short at 7712 Target 7682
Dentalfloss
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Allez Les Blues
7pm
7pm
Dentalfloss
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ya might get more if spx corrects that overbought
Dentalfloss
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RAF flypast in an hour
They will be dropping cases of Peroni
They will be dropping cases of Peroni
Dentalfloss
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not sure if i will be able to see much..they are coming over Kingston and Egham
C
cantagril
I've got some other stuff to do ( no fly-pasts or peroni involved) so I might have to settle for whatever I can get in the short term
Dentalfloss
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Spx
one liner so far...
no complaints
one liner so far...
no complaints
