Dentalfloss
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Ostwald, Marc
13:56 (15 minutes ago)
to Marc
US May 2018 Labour report: "Strong, strong, strong - no flies on this one #thanksforthetweet"
a) Payrolls / Establishment survey - while not a major 'beat' vs forecasts, 223K vs forecast of 190K and a net upward revision of 15K to April & March is very strong, particularly with the Unemployment Rate this low. As is usual with a solid reading it was led by Services at +171K, Manufacturing a tad slower at +18K vs. April +25K, but good; Transport/warehousing also rebounded +19K vs prior +1K.
b) Unemployment Rate / Household Report - New low for Unemployment Rate at 3.8%, and this was of the genuinely strong variety (i.e. not paced by size of labour force change, just +15K), with Employment +293K, Unemployment -281K ..... and most importantly U-6 Underemployment Rate falls again to a new cylical low of 7.6% vs. April 7.8% & March 8.0%. Implies that labour market slack is now rapidly being eaten up
c) Average Hourly Earnings / Weekly Hours - Given the April disappointment (0.1% m/m), it is probably best to see the slightly better than expected 0.3% m/m 2.7% y/y as maintaining the average, rather than signalling a shift higher. Average Weekly Hours as expected, though Manufacturing Hours dipped very modestly 0.3% m/m, and remain strong. The latter sits slightly uncomfortably with the strength of the regional Manufacturing surveys, and does follow a strong 0.4% m/m in April.
d) Market reaction - not a lot, with Trump's tweet that he was 'looking forward' to the labour data having already prompted markets to discount a better than expected outturn.... back to more politics and trade battles!
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Global Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
13:56 (15 minutes ago)
to Marc
US May 2018 Labour report: "Strong, strong, strong - no flies on this one #thanksforthetweet"
a) Payrolls / Establishment survey - while not a major 'beat' vs forecasts, 223K vs forecast of 190K and a net upward revision of 15K to April & March is very strong, particularly with the Unemployment Rate this low. As is usual with a solid reading it was led by Services at +171K, Manufacturing a tad slower at +18K vs. April +25K, but good; Transport/warehousing also rebounded +19K vs prior +1K.
b) Unemployment Rate / Household Report - New low for Unemployment Rate at 3.8%, and this was of the genuinely strong variety (i.e. not paced by size of labour force change, just +15K), with Employment +293K, Unemployment -281K ..... and most importantly U-6 Underemployment Rate falls again to a new cylical low of 7.6% vs. April 7.8% & March 8.0%. Implies that labour market slack is now rapidly being eaten up
c) Average Hourly Earnings / Weekly Hours - Given the April disappointment (0.1% m/m), it is probably best to see the slightly better than expected 0.3% m/m 2.7% y/y as maintaining the average, rather than signalling a shift higher. Average Weekly Hours as expected, though Manufacturing Hours dipped very modestly 0.3% m/m, and remain strong. The latter sits slightly uncomfortably with the strength of the regional Manufacturing surveys, and does follow a strong 0.4% m/m in April.
d) Market reaction - not a lot, with Trump's tweet that he was 'looking forward' to the labour data having already prompted markets to discount a better than expected outturn.... back to more politics and trade battles!
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Global Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
