Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

Trump import tariff on Marmite.....reason for the tank

 

[Dentalfloss]

eurusd
80 point dump from our 1.1720
without the scalps

 

[Dentalfloss]

7650 caught the falling knife....not recommended to do that
uneless you are sure of a decent confluence in support

 

[cantagril]

7650 caught the falling knife....not recommended to do that
uneless you are sure of a decent confluence in support

Postman used to do a bit of knife-throwing as a stage act I think. He caught this one....don't how many assistants he's been through though.

 

[Dentalfloss]

think it was going to be a messy pullback today until Trump announced new tariffs...then it became a falling knife

 

[Dentalfloss]

Mornin folks

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dow into the open

if bulls can hold 24250-24400 supp area...then we rally
Dax and ftse should follow

 

[Dentalfloss]

Naz 100...not in bad shape
but..
our pivot..not sure about price movement around that/lower horizontal line

 

[Dentalfloss]

Naz 100
a closer look

 

[Dentalfloss]

reasonably bullish
but.....could be a minor top forming

could hold back Dow and euro index
as always..who knows

 

[Dentalfloss]

FTSE

tad bullish

 

[Dentalfloss]

DAX into the open

3

3 waves down..??

 

[Dentalfloss]

usdjpy 109.25 lining up

 

[Dentalfloss]

oil
pivot area looming

 

[Dentalfloss]

rig count 6pm/uk

 

[Dentalfloss]

- Busy run of data and surveys to start the month, but politics and trade
tensions still the key influence: EU response to US sanctions (and Italy
govt programme perhaps) awaited along with Spanish no confidence vote;
Manufacturing PMIs and US labour report top macro schedule, as soft Japan
Q1 Capex, solid Korea trade digested; G7 Finance Minister and Central
Bank meeting continues, BoE Haldane and smattering of Fed speak

- UK Manufacturing PMI: seen mirroring CBI survey with further small dip,
still signalling reasonable pace of expansion

- US Payrolls: despite ADP miss, other survey evidence points to modest
upside relative to consensus

- US Average Hourly Earnings: seen posting "average" m/m gain to leave
y/y rate unchanged, little sign of any near term acceleration

- US Average Weekly Hours seen at cyclical high, may get a boost from
likely very strong Manufacturing Hours

- US Manufacturing ISM: seen rebounding modestly after April dip, regional
surveys point to sharp upside risk

- Chart: Brent vs WTI and other oil prices

** PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE WILL BE NO UPDATES MONDAY 4 JUNE TO
WEDNESDAY 6 JUNE, AS I WILL BE TAKING A SHORT BREAK **

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

It's US labour report and Manufacturing PMIs worldwide day, but it would seem the world's political imps appear determined to remain centre stage, be that the overnight US imposition of steel and aluminium tariffs on EU, Canada and Mexico, or the ongoing Italian political drama, or the Spanish vote of confidence. In respect of the latter, it would appear that the socialist PSOE leader Sanchez has mustered the support of Podemos and a number of regional parties (Catalan Esquerra Republicana, and the Basque Nationalist) to win the vote of no confidence. The irony is that if fresh elections are held then the winners will likely be none of the above, but rather the pro-business Ciudadanos party (similar to Germany's FDP), though they would still require a coalition partner. As for the Trade battle that is now in progress, the key question is what retaliatory measures will be adopted by the EU, which as with the Bush era countermeasures (for which the list in fact was compiled) will "hit where it hurts" in political terms, thus agricultural products (cheese, orange juice, tomatoes and potatoes), Bourbon and Harley-Davidson motorcycles are likely to feature. The statistical schedule, while busy, will probably garner little reaction, and in addition to the PMIs and US labour data, there are Japan Q1 CapEx (very disappointing ex-Software) along with Korea CPI and Trade to digest. On the central bank front, there are speeches from BoE's Haldane, Riksbank's Ingves and Messrs Kaplan and Kashkari from the Fed.

** World - May Manufacturing PMIs / ISM**
- As is usual, forecasts for today's surveys assume either no change from 'flash readings' for the G7, or little change vs. April elsewhere. It will be recalled that while Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs were relatively robust, Services PMIs dipped more than expected, though in the case of Germany, the Ifo survey cast a lot of doubt on the validity of the PMI readings, as it so often does. For the UK, a further dip to 53.5 from April's 53.9 is expected, implying a steady month by month drift lower since the recent 58.3 November high, to an extent mirroring what has been seen in the CBI's industrial Trends survey. As for the US, the Manufacturing ISM is expected to rebound to 58.2 after a sharper than expected dip to 57.3 in April from March's 59.3, with risks firmly skewed to the upside, given a barrage of strong regional surveys, and of course a reminder of what the Beige Book noted: . "Manufacturing shifted into higher gear with more than half of the Districts reporting a pickup in industrial activity and a third of the Districts classifying activity as "strong." Fabricated metals, heavy industrial machinery, and electronics equipment were noted as areas of strength. Rising goods production led to higher freight volumes for transportation firms."

** U.S.A. - May labour report **
- Forecasts for US payrolls and indeed wages as ever look rather agnostic with 190K seen for Payrolls (headline and private), while Average Hourly Earnings are expected to revert to a 0.2% m/m rise that would leave the y/y rate unchanged at 2.6%, while Average Weekly Hours are seen remaining at their highs. In repect of the latter, the strength seen in all May manufacturing surveys implies that Manufacturing Hours should post another strong reading. While the ADP survey missed forecasts, and the prior month was revised down, it has been a poor guide to the official data for much of this year, and given the array of other survey evidence, the risks for today's report look to be modestly to the upside of the consensus, though the wages data will clearly carry much greater weight with the market. A close eye needs to be kept on the Underemployment Rate which remains at its cyclical low of 7.8%, rather higher than the last time the Unemployment Rate was at 3.9%, where it is expected to remain today.

from Marc Ostwald

 

[Dentalfloss]

time for tea and biscuits

 

[Dentalfloss]

oil
pivot area looming

66.00 whacked

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dow into the open

if bulls can hold 24250-24400 supp area...then we rally
Dax and ftse should follow

Yes sir

 

[Dentalfloss]

usdjpy 109.25 lining up

Splat