Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

Cable
needs to test our pivot area

 

[Dentalfloss]

note that the balancing row/in black is directly above

 

[cantagril]

...and another GBPCHF at 1.3468

Slim Pickens so far:

19h22

EG .8745 (av) Currently .8753 +8

GBPCHF 1.3488(av) Currently 1.3497 +11


Long way to go for my target profit

 

[Dentalfloss]

mornin folks

 

[Dentalfloss]

from Marc Ostwald


- Digesting rash of data from Asia - Japan Orders, Singapore Exports and
Australian labour data; awaiting US Philly Fed Manufacturing and weekly
jobless claims; plenty of Fed speakers, key EM rate decisions in Indonesia
and Mexico; Govt bond auctions in France, Spain and USA

- Indonesia: rate hike expected given persistent IDR weakness

- Mexico: Banxico seen on hold, but renewed MXN weakness may force its hand

- UK: BoE Agents' reports make for uncomfortable reading on UK economy, but
latest House of Lords Brexit bill defeat raises 'hope' of remaining in
EU Customs union, but also heightens risk of Tory party leadership
challenge

- Charts; US 10 yr yield, US 10 yr breakeven rate, Brent oil future
July/Aug spread; various EM FX plus BoE May Agents report

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The high watermark in terms of economic data for this has been passed, with the overnight run offering the highlights today via way of Japanese Orders (slightly weaker than expected in m/m terms, but still up 3.3% q/q, with Q2 seen even stronger at 7.1% q/q) Australian labour data (solid full-time 33K Employment gain despite rise in Unemployment Rate), Singapore Exports (much stronger than forecast at 11.8% y/y) and Malaysian Q1 GDP (as expected) with only US weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing survey ahead. Fed speak is again quite plentiful, while the EM rate decision list has markets now looking for a 25 bps rate hike Indonesia to combat prospective inflation pressures from a weak IDR, and no change in Egypt as against -100 bps at the end of last week due to.... EM FX pressures. The wildcard could be Banco de Mexico, which is probably inclined to stand pat at an already lofty 7.50% given the myriad of political uncertainties (NAFTA & domestic elections) and currently easing inflation pressures (though prospectively mounting given the renewed slide in the MXN). The unexpected decision by Brazil's BCB to hold rates, very clearly reflecting the recent weakness in the BRL, and a strong possibility that this will feed through into inflation, certainly suggests that a 'surprise' rate hike in Mexico cannot be ruled out. A busier day for govt bond supply has multi-tranche auctions in France and Spain, and an $11 Bln re-opening of the current 10-yr TIPS, which interestingly is now on a marginally HIGHER breakeven than the 30-yr TIPS - the ugly spectre of myopic LDI driven flows is clearly in the headlights. That said the break higher in US 10 yr yields while setting sights on key resistance at 3.30%, if 3.11% is breached, is thus far seeing little reaction in credit spreads (see attached), nor is it exercising much upward pressure on TIPS breakeven rates. The corporate earnings schedule may not be that busy, but has a number of companies that are sector bellwethers - AP Moller-Maersk, National Grid, Suez, Vivendi and Walmart. In the ICYMI category, the May BoE Agents Reports Summary (see attached) yesterday underlines why the BoE was as cautious as it was last week, and while it hardly paints a great picture of the UK economy, it does need a read through. The section that stands out (given that it highlights service sectors doing 'well') is this: "Business services growth remained moderate (Chart 2). There was a slight pickup in insolvency and restructuring work, robust growth in asset management and firm demand for IT services. However, discretionary spending by corporates, e.g. on events and hospitality, remained weak." But all of that will likely be trampled underfoot by the latest Brexit developments, with the government suffering its 15th defeat in the House of Lords on its Brexit bill (i.e. legislation), which has raised the spectre of the UK remaining in the EU Customs Union beyond 2021, which at one fell swoop would also solve the seemingly intractable Irish border issue. That conclusion may be logical, but the key question is whether the hardline Brexiteers within the Conservative party decide that they are going to challenge PM May for leadership of the party, quite possibly in the very near future, and per se unleash a further round of political uncertainty.

 

[cantagril]

Morning Dentist....and Attila - Brexit not doing it for you these days?

Slim Pickens so far:

19h22

EG .8745 (av) Currently .8753 +8

GBPCHF 1.3488(av) Currently 1.3497 +11


Long way to go for my target profit

Talk about slow....

08h45

Trading now:
EG .8749 +4
GBPCHF 1.3526 +48

At the bottom end of my target so I'll be kicking my heels for a while yet

 

[Dentalfloss]

plenty of fumbling

 

[Dentalfloss]

Morning Dentist....and Attila - Brexit not doing it for you these days?





Talk about slow....

08h45

Trading now:
EG .8749 +4
GBPCHF 1.3526 +48


At the bottom end of my target so I'll be kicking my heels for a while yet

GBPCHF....excellent sir

 

[Dentalfloss]

plenty of fumbling

Tricky

 

[Dentalfloss]

spx...a real donkey....no clues

 

[Dentalfloss]

dollar index

 

[Dentalfloss]

minor trend is down
92.80 is trend supp area

 

[Dentalfloss]

ftse

 

[Dentalfloss]

spx
bounce off our pivot

 

[Dentalfloss]

time for tea and biscuits

 

[Dentalfloss]

spx

 

[Dentalfloss]

keeps testing our pivot
dunno why...who cares
excellent for us

 

[Dentalfloss]

usdjpy 110.80 lined up

 

[Dentalfloss]

spx 2728 lining up

 

[Dentalfloss]

dollar index on cusp of a breakout