Dentalfloss
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overshot a tad....even better
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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dow still has the look of a dead cat bounce
Dentalfloss
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24050 area is supp...prev rez
testing it now
testing it now
Dentalfloss
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24100 is first rez
Dentalfloss
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eurusd 1.2150 is a big supp area
will it hold ?
will it hold ?
Dentalfloss
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ditto Cable 1.3900 area
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Busy day for data, central banks and corporate earnings; ECB tops schedule,
Riskbank precedes; digesting Korea GDP & German Consumer Confidence,
awaiting UK CBI Retail Trades Survey, US Durable Goods, Goods Trade Balance,
Wholesale Inventories, Claims & KC Fed Manufacturing; US 7-yr auction
- Riksbank: rates/QE seen unchanged, SEK slide since February meeting leaves
Riksbank with dilemma on rate trajectory signal
- ECB: no change and no fresh guidance expected, Draghi & Co again likely to
offer no hints on QE taper or termination, express frustration inflation,
but suggest softer Q1 data probably 'transitory'
- USA: data run may prompt last minutes Q1 GDP forecast tweaks, Durables
seen posting solid gain led by transport, shipments key for Q1 GDP;
marginal narrowing in Goods Trade deficit set to confirm big drag on
Q1 GDP
- Charts: ECB & Riksbank rate probabilities, EUR/SEK, EUR TWI, US 7/10 yr
spread and India Currency in Circulation
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
From famine to feast might well describe the contrast between yesterday's and today's schedule of data and events. Pride of place falls to the ECB council meeting which follows Sweden's Riksbank policy meeting, while the statistical run has South Korean Q1 advance GDP and German GfK Consumer Confidence to digest ahead of the UK CBI Distributive / Retail Trades surveys along with a busy run from the US via way of Durable Goods, advance Goods Trade balance, weekly jobless claims, Wholesale Inventories and the KC Fed Manufacturing survey. The US rounds off this week's funding exercise with $27.0 Bln of 7-yr, for which a fat concession has been built in so far as the 7/10 yr UST spread amounts to just 4.5 bps. The corporate earnings schedule is also very busy, with Asia also muscling in with Bank of China, Nomura & Samsung, while Europe looks to Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Fiat Chrysler, KPN, Lufthansa, Nokia, Orange, Telefonica, Total & Volkswagen, and the US has Altria, Amazon, ConocoPhillips, Domino's Pizza, DR Horton, Hershey, GM, Intel, KKR, Mattel, Microsoft, Newmont Mining, Pepsico, Raytheon, Starbucks, Time Warner, Union Pacific, UPS, Valero Energy and Western Digital. Mixed overnight news on the probabilities pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal, with Macron suggesting he will pull out, while EU sources suggest a solution may have been found to overcome Trump's objections, overall implying that the political risk premium on oil prices will remain at least partially sustained.
** Sweden - Riksbank policy meeting **
- Whisper this quietly, but Sweden's 'inflation nutter' central bank may be forced to change its 'fundamentalist' dovish stance when it announces what is expected to be a no change rate and QE decision today. Why? Well take a look at the attached EUR/SEK chart, which amply demonstrates that the seemingly relentless weakening of the SEK since its February meeting, and which has left the SEK around 6.0% weaker in TWI terms than the Riksbank was anticipating in February. Eminently CPI & (core) CPIF are only just getting back to target (March 1.9% and 2.0% y/y after dropping back quite sharply at the turn of the year, and the committee was notably unresponsive to the jump above target in Q3 2017, but at that stage the SEK was relatively 'strong', and has fallen nearly 11.0% since the end of Q3. That said, the ueber-dovish majority, as exemplified by Floden's comments on 13 April expressing disappointment that CPIF was still below target, have hardly been signalling any concern, let alone expressing any sign of joining Ohlsson in voting for a rate hike. But stranger things have happened, and the Riksbank will have to weigh up the risk that a resolutely dovish message today may see the SEK weaken even further, and force a more dramatic volte face later in the year.
** Eurozone - ECB council meeting **
- The ECB is on hold for the time being, and has been pushing back on offering any specifics on when it will end its QE (APP) programme, and even harder on when a first rate hike might occur (leaving aside Nowotny's since disavowed comments). Markets will still be hoping for some hints on whether QE will be halted at the end of Q3, or increasingly more likely tapered one last time in Q4; ECB speakers and sources have stressed that the uptick in inflation has been rather more tortuous than they had hoped, while at the same time stressing the need for the council to shift the parameters for its policy pronouncements / narrative away from liquidity measures, and rather more to rates. The expiry of the EUR 438 Bln total of LTROs on 26 September (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/omo/html/index.en.html ), and how and on what terms it is replaced, looks to be the key liquidity event at which it could offer some signals on its intentions, though no specific details on this will likely be offered until its June meeting. As such Draghi & Co will be at pains (again) to say nothing on the QE and rate trajectory, though markets will be combing through the comments on the current state of the economy (above all GDP and inflation) for a read across to the policy outlook, specifically whether it views the array of rather sluggish data and survey indicators as probably being transitory, or indicative of a more entrenched loss of momentum (it will probably err towards the former, by dint of wanting to avoid offering indirect policy signals). The already voiced concerns on global trade tensions will surely be repeated. The question then is whether the Euro gets a mention, which in truth it should not, in so far as it has trended sideways since the start of the year, and is unchanged from August 2017 in TWI terms (see attached chart of Deutsche Bank's EUR TWI index). The press conference may also see some questions on its NPL rules, given reports (confirmed by the ECB) that it may 'shelve' its plans to force banks to put aside more capital for their existing stock of NPLs, and rather exercise pressure on banks on a case by case basis, given the fierce resistance, above all from Italy, to its previous proposals. But with the board of the ECB’s Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) due to meet in May, Draghi will likely defer to the outcome of that meeting. He may nevertheless face further questions on the broader topic of financial stability, following Lane's suggestion yesterday that central banks need to consider that might at some stage need to 'bail out' a non-bank financial institution in order to ensure financial stability (music to taxpayers' ears! Ed.)
** U.S.A. - March Durable Goods & Trade Balance **
- Today's data run will offer the opportunity for forecasters to tweak their Q1 GDP forecast head of tomorrow's preliminary estimate. Durable Goods Orders are seen posting a further strong jump of 1.6% m/m, led by aircraft orders with Boeing Orders surging to 197 (vs. February's 30, January 28 though below December's bumper 265) and suggesting some upside risks, despite the February surge of 3.0%. Core measures are seen slowing vs February - ex-Transport 0.5% m/m vs. Feb 1.0%, Non-defence Capital Goods ex-Aircraft 0.6% vs. 1.4% - but still in line with expectations of another strong contribution from business investment to Q1 GDP. That will however be contingent on Shipments, within which Non-defence Capital Goods ex-Aircraft Shipments are forecast to rise 0.4% m/m after February's 1.4%. The advance Goods Trade Balance is expected to narrow marginally to $-75.0 bln from February's $-75.9 Bln, which would leave the Q1 Goods Trade deficit at a nominal $-226.3 Bln as against Q4's $-210.3 Bln, and thus affirming expectations of another hefty drag (0.7 ppts?) on Q1 GDP from Net Exports, which will doubtless draw further howling about unfair trade practices from Trump, though the real embarrassment is that a significant contribution to that widening comes from the oil sector (price driven, but also reflecting that the booming US shale sector is producing the wrong sort of oil for parts of the energy processing & product sector due to a lack of investment in infrastructure). Wholesale Inventories are also expected to post a further substantial gain (0.7% m/m vs. prior 1.0% and 0.9%), echoing trends in the more significant Business Inventories, which point to a solid overall contribution to Q1 GDP, after deducting substantially from Q4). Initial Claims are projected to be little changed at 230K. Claims are also due and expected to be little changed again at 230K.
from Marc Ostwald
Riskbank precedes; digesting Korea GDP & German Consumer Confidence,
awaiting UK CBI Retail Trades Survey, US Durable Goods, Goods Trade Balance,
Wholesale Inventories, Claims & KC Fed Manufacturing; US 7-yr auction
- Riksbank: rates/QE seen unchanged, SEK slide since February meeting leaves
Riksbank with dilemma on rate trajectory signal
- ECB: no change and no fresh guidance expected, Draghi & Co again likely to
offer no hints on QE taper or termination, express frustration inflation,
but suggest softer Q1 data probably 'transitory'
- USA: data run may prompt last minutes Q1 GDP forecast tweaks, Durables
seen posting solid gain led by transport, shipments key for Q1 GDP;
marginal narrowing in Goods Trade deficit set to confirm big drag on
Q1 GDP
- Charts: ECB & Riksbank rate probabilities, EUR/SEK, EUR TWI, US 7/10 yr
spread and India Currency in Circulation
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
From famine to feast might well describe the contrast between yesterday's and today's schedule of data and events. Pride of place falls to the ECB council meeting which follows Sweden's Riksbank policy meeting, while the statistical run has South Korean Q1 advance GDP and German GfK Consumer Confidence to digest ahead of the UK CBI Distributive / Retail Trades surveys along with a busy run from the US via way of Durable Goods, advance Goods Trade balance, weekly jobless claims, Wholesale Inventories and the KC Fed Manufacturing survey. The US rounds off this week's funding exercise with $27.0 Bln of 7-yr, for which a fat concession has been built in so far as the 7/10 yr UST spread amounts to just 4.5 bps. The corporate earnings schedule is also very busy, with Asia also muscling in with Bank of China, Nomura & Samsung, while Europe looks to Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Fiat Chrysler, KPN, Lufthansa, Nokia, Orange, Telefonica, Total & Volkswagen, and the US has Altria, Amazon, ConocoPhillips, Domino's Pizza, DR Horton, Hershey, GM, Intel, KKR, Mattel, Microsoft, Newmont Mining, Pepsico, Raytheon, Starbucks, Time Warner, Union Pacific, UPS, Valero Energy and Western Digital. Mixed overnight news on the probabilities pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal, with Macron suggesting he will pull out, while EU sources suggest a solution may have been found to overcome Trump's objections, overall implying that the political risk premium on oil prices will remain at least partially sustained.
** Sweden - Riksbank policy meeting **
- Whisper this quietly, but Sweden's 'inflation nutter' central bank may be forced to change its 'fundamentalist' dovish stance when it announces what is expected to be a no change rate and QE decision today. Why? Well take a look at the attached EUR/SEK chart, which amply demonstrates that the seemingly relentless weakening of the SEK since its February meeting, and which has left the SEK around 6.0% weaker in TWI terms than the Riksbank was anticipating in February. Eminently CPI & (core) CPIF are only just getting back to target (March 1.9% and 2.0% y/y after dropping back quite sharply at the turn of the year, and the committee was notably unresponsive to the jump above target in Q3 2017, but at that stage the SEK was relatively 'strong', and has fallen nearly 11.0% since the end of Q3. That said, the ueber-dovish majority, as exemplified by Floden's comments on 13 April expressing disappointment that CPIF was still below target, have hardly been signalling any concern, let alone expressing any sign of joining Ohlsson in voting for a rate hike. But stranger things have happened, and the Riksbank will have to weigh up the risk that a resolutely dovish message today may see the SEK weaken even further, and force a more dramatic volte face later in the year.
** Eurozone - ECB council meeting **
- The ECB is on hold for the time being, and has been pushing back on offering any specifics on when it will end its QE (APP) programme, and even harder on when a first rate hike might occur (leaving aside Nowotny's since disavowed comments). Markets will still be hoping for some hints on whether QE will be halted at the end of Q3, or increasingly more likely tapered one last time in Q4; ECB speakers and sources have stressed that the uptick in inflation has been rather more tortuous than they had hoped, while at the same time stressing the need for the council to shift the parameters for its policy pronouncements / narrative away from liquidity measures, and rather more to rates. The expiry of the EUR 438 Bln total of LTROs on 26 September (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/omo/html/index.en.html ), and how and on what terms it is replaced, looks to be the key liquidity event at which it could offer some signals on its intentions, though no specific details on this will likely be offered until its June meeting. As such Draghi & Co will be at pains (again) to say nothing on the QE and rate trajectory, though markets will be combing through the comments on the current state of the economy (above all GDP and inflation) for a read across to the policy outlook, specifically whether it views the array of rather sluggish data and survey indicators as probably being transitory, or indicative of a more entrenched loss of momentum (it will probably err towards the former, by dint of wanting to avoid offering indirect policy signals). The already voiced concerns on global trade tensions will surely be repeated. The question then is whether the Euro gets a mention, which in truth it should not, in so far as it has trended sideways since the start of the year, and is unchanged from August 2017 in TWI terms (see attached chart of Deutsche Bank's EUR TWI index). The press conference may also see some questions on its NPL rules, given reports (confirmed by the ECB) that it may 'shelve' its plans to force banks to put aside more capital for their existing stock of NPLs, and rather exercise pressure on banks on a case by case basis, given the fierce resistance, above all from Italy, to its previous proposals. But with the board of the ECB’s Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) due to meet in May, Draghi will likely defer to the outcome of that meeting. He may nevertheless face further questions on the broader topic of financial stability, following Lane's suggestion yesterday that central banks need to consider that might at some stage need to 'bail out' a non-bank financial institution in order to ensure financial stability (music to taxpayers' ears! Ed.)
** U.S.A. - March Durable Goods & Trade Balance **
- Today's data run will offer the opportunity for forecasters to tweak their Q1 GDP forecast head of tomorrow's preliminary estimate. Durable Goods Orders are seen posting a further strong jump of 1.6% m/m, led by aircraft orders with Boeing Orders surging to 197 (vs. February's 30, January 28 though below December's bumper 265) and suggesting some upside risks, despite the February surge of 3.0%. Core measures are seen slowing vs February - ex-Transport 0.5% m/m vs. Feb 1.0%, Non-defence Capital Goods ex-Aircraft 0.6% vs. 1.4% - but still in line with expectations of another strong contribution from business investment to Q1 GDP. That will however be contingent on Shipments, within which Non-defence Capital Goods ex-Aircraft Shipments are forecast to rise 0.4% m/m after February's 1.4%. The advance Goods Trade Balance is expected to narrow marginally to $-75.0 bln from February's $-75.9 Bln, which would leave the Q1 Goods Trade deficit at a nominal $-226.3 Bln as against Q4's $-210.3 Bln, and thus affirming expectations of another hefty drag (0.7 ppts?) on Q1 GDP from Net Exports, which will doubtless draw further howling about unfair trade practices from Trump, though the real embarrassment is that a significant contribution to that widening comes from the oil sector (price driven, but also reflecting that the booming US shale sector is producing the wrong sort of oil for parts of the energy processing & product sector due to a lack of investment in infrastructure). Wholesale Inventories are also expected to post a further substantial gain (0.7% m/m vs. prior 1.0% and 0.9%), echoing trends in the more significant Business Inventories, which point to a solid overall contribution to Q1 GDP, after deducting substantially from Q4). Initial Claims are projected to be little changed at 230K. Claims are also due and expected to be little changed again at 230K.
from Marc Ostwald
C
cantagril
Morning all,
Might be a bit of volatility with the ECB and I think there might be a buy oppo coming up around .8680/.8700 so I've got a Long order in there at .8685.
If that doesn't work out then it might just be back to more of the same i.e ranging .8700 to .8850 ....should be a few pips in there for me somewhere
Might be a bit of volatility with the ECB and I think there might be a buy oppo coming up around .8680/.8700 so I've got a Long order in there at .8685.
If that doesn't work out then it might just be back to more of the same i.e ranging .8700 to .8850 ....should be a few pips in there for me somewhere
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Dentalfloss
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bought
Dentalfloss
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Morning all,
Might be a bit of volatility with the ECB and I think there might be a buy oppo coming up around .8680/.8700 so I've got a Long order in there at .8685.
If that doesn't work out then it might just be back to more of the same i.e ranging .8700 to .8850 ....should be a few pips in there for me somewhere
pips for you
Dentalfloss
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EG
0.8750 linin up
0.8750 linin up
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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spx
Dentalfloss
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decent run
C
cantagril
Triggered. Now long at .8685 Target .8740
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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chart posted 2 hours 45 mins before the open
Dentalfloss
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2665 rez dumped
excellent stuff
excellent stuff
Dentalfloss
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2655 held on p/b
excellent
excellent
