Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

24950 has a pivot...if 25K breaks

and bounce
excellent finish

 

[Dentalfloss]

mornin folks

 

[Dentalfloss]

dax into the open
poss support comin in

 

[cantagril]

Morning 007 et al

Completely missed the move up on UC yesterday but did OK on GBPCHF. Looking at the same play today....

Currently:

Long GBPCHF at 1.3177 Target 1.3202

Long STOXX overnight from 3382 Target 3405

 

[Dentalfloss]

dow into the open

 

[Dentalfloss]

CARE.........
that supp area goes down to 24870

 

[Dentalfloss]

cable in supp....will it hold.??
1.3950 area

 

[Dentalfloss]

index....should be some bulls....yu will need a tight stop
not a done deal

 

[Dentalfloss]

eurusd pulling back from 1.2400 rez area
1.2380 is a pivot
there now

 

[Dentalfloss]

- Digesting solid industry data from Japan and China, awaiting Swedish CPI,
US Retail Sales, PPI & Business Inventories; busy day for ECB speakers,
EU commission response to US trade tariffs awaited along with OPEC Oil
market report; govt bond auctions in Germany an Portugal

- China industry data suggests solid start to 2018, counter to NBS PMI,
Retail Sales somewhat disappointing

- US Retail Sales: seen rebounding from January weakness, surveys imply
some upside risk

- US PPI: energy likely to restrain headline, emergent services pressures
key for core

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A much busier day awaits both in data and event terms. Statistically there are the run of mostly better than expected China monthly activity data, Japan's Private Machinery Orders and India's WPI to digest ahead of Swedish CPI, but pride of place will inevitably goes to US Retail Sales, which are accompanied by PPI and Business Inventories ahead of tonight's NZ Q4 GDP. ECB speakers are plentiful, kicking off with Coeure at a Fintech event, though the annual ECB and Its Watchers conference boasts Draghi, Constancio and de Galhau among its prominent speakers. Oil markets will look to the OPEC monthly Oil Market Report, ahead of tomorrow's IEA version, which will likely offers a truer picture of supply and demand than today's report. The Corporate Earnings calendar in Europe will likely focus on results from Adidas, E.On , Inditex & Prudential, while govt bond supply has 30 yr in Germany and 10 & 30 yr in Portugal. In terms of the ECB speak, it seems unlikely that the dovish tilt of last week's press conference and forecasts will be negated by anything that is said at today's conference. Likewise forecasts for Swedish CPI assume that the seasonal bounce in m/m terms (headline and Core CPIF seen at 0.7% m/m) will keep the y/y rates unchanged at a subdued 1.7% and 1.6% respectively, per se confirming that the rest of the Riksbank policy committee are likely to join Ohlsson in voting for a rate hike anytime soon. In respect of the China economic activity, these were considerably better than expected outside of Retail Sales, which just missed forecasts at a rather disappointing 9.7% y/y, however Industrial Production pretty much smashed forecasts at 7.2% y/y, with accompanying data on Fixed Asset Investment 7.9% y/y vs. expected 7.0% even more encouraging given that an 8.1% y/y rise in Private sector Investment drove that rise, and a strong reading on Power Output 11.0% y/y (partly weather related) appears to corroborate that strength, all of which suggests that the soft NBS Manufacturing PMI was not indicative of a slowdown.

** U.S.A. - Feb Retail Sales / PPI **
- January Retail Sales proved to be very disappointing (headline -0.3% m/m, ex-Autos & Gas -0.2%) with the early month big freeze taking some of the blame, and the assumption underlying the consensus is that February will bounce back with a gain of 0.3% m/m seen across the board. If the various surveys at both consumer and business levels (universally very robust) an the labour market data are anything to go by, then the risks should be skewed to the upside, though this may also be achieved via revisions. Following on from the 'bang in line with forecast' CPI, today brings PPI which will probably have to spring some upside surprises to displace the 'dovish' spin applied to CPI (the latter is best termed 'wishful seeing' & 'wilful blindness'). The drop in oil and a few other commodity prices account for expectations for a very muted 0.1% m/m headline rise, which would still see the y/y rate edge up to 2.8%, though the services related components should provide an offset and account for expectations of a modest 0.2% m/m on core measures; a key question going forward is how the impact of the steel and aluminium tariffs feed into this, though in index terms these actually have a very small weighting in PPI. Business Inventories will also require some attention, in so far as the large drag in Q4 (-0.7 ppts from GDP) is expected to be reversed in Q1, and that doubtless predicates forecasts of a 0.6% m/m rise following December's 0.4%, whereby key question is whether the Inventory / Sales ratio holds at its 3-yr low of 1.33
from Marc ostwald

 

[Dentalfloss]

eurusd pulling back from 1.2400 rez area
1.2380 is a pivot
there now

broke
excellent

 

[Dentalfloss]

our 1.2380 pivot became rez
#excellent stuff

 

[Dentalfloss]

12270 a pivot area on dax

 

[Dentalfloss]

its in the zone

 

[Dentalfloss]

its in the zone/technical....not mental

 

[Dentalfloss]

Mark Douglas....much easier to get into the zone at The Grantley Arms...than read his book

 

[Dentalfloss]

Zone 1 travelcard

 

[Dentalfloss]

dax gone a tad bullish

 

[Dentalfloss]

if we keep above the red
gets tested in 12.1K area

 

[Dentalfloss]

oil into Nymex open