Dentalfloss
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Dax into the open
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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its stuck between 12300 and 12400
if 12300 fails ..then supp area marked below
waiting for NFP
as we said yesterday...bulls are in
if 12300 fails ..then supp area marked below
waiting for NFP
as we said yesterday...bulls are in
Dentalfloss
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eurusd
does supp come in..??
does supp come in..??
Dentalfloss
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ditto dow......stuck in horizontal rez
Dentalfloss
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dax and dow goin either way
we mark horizontal supp and rez and trade the signals
they are both bullish....but quite volatile,especially dow
we mark horizontal supp and rez and trade the signals
they are both bullish....but quite volatile,especially dow
Dentalfloss
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Dax
trend break looming
trend break looming
Dentalfloss
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trend and pivot supp in 12280 area
otherwise we test 12.4K
otherwise we test 12.4K
Dentalfloss
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trend break...first move is a retrace...before yu can assess if its a new downtrend
Dentalfloss
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gets nasty if 12280 becomes rez
Dentalfloss
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Dow into the open
Dentalfloss
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turns nasty if 24800 becomes rez
bulls need 25K as supp
bulls need 25K as supp
Dentalfloss
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cable
our 1.3850 pivot area looming....as rez
its in rez now
our 1.3850 pivot area looming....as rez
its in rez now
Dentalfloss
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C
cantagril
Dentalfloss
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Morning Sir Canta
Dentalfloss
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- Barrage of data to digest as easing Korea tensions, and hopes that trade
wars will not take root improve investor sentiment; No change BoJ, China
CPI & PPI, Japan wages and disappointing French/German Production to
digest; UK Production & Trade, US and Canada Jobs reports and Brazil
inflation ahead
- UK Production: headline to bounce back from Forties pipeline outage,
manufacturing seen ploughing steady expansion
- UK Trade deficit to narrow after unexpected Dec surge, but still
above 12-mth average
- US Payrolls: anecdotal evidence overwhelmingly points to better than
expected outturn; market risk therefore via any downside surprise
- US Unemployment Rate seen posting matching 2000 low, but Underemployment
still something of a black spot (see chart)
- US Average Hourly Earnings expected to post modest gain, suggesting Jan
rise more a function of weather effects, anecdotal evidence still hinting
at acceleration
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A busy day for statistics to end the week, though the events schedule is limited to digesting the highly unsurprising BoJ decision to keep all its various policy parameters unchanged, and a speech from the always very dovish Chicago Fed boss Evans. The US labour data clearly take pride of place in the schedule, but ahead of that there are a barrage of trade and production data in the UK and Eurozone, along with Canadian labour data and Brazilian IBGE IPCA inflation, along with the overnight China inflation (heavily influenced Lunar New Year Year base effects, most notably in Food prices) and Japan wages prints (effectively confirming why the BoJ is still far away from any QQE exit as confirmed by today's policy decision), and notably higher than expected Norway headline CPI, though core CPI remains very subdued). As such next week's busy schedule of US data including CPI and Retail Sales, China Industrial Production, FAI and Retail Sales, and Japanese Machinery Orders will probably not be given much thought. Eminently signs of easing tensions on the Korean peninsula, and the exemptions for Canada and Mexico on the steel and aluminium tariffs may prove to be more a talking point and influence on financial markets. It is worth observing that the 'buy the dip' mentality that has been so prevalent for a number of years has clearly not been dislodged despite 1.0% plus moves in equity indices are again the norm, i.e. confirming that underlying volatility has seen upward shift, even if it still remains subdued by any historical standards. The near term question is whether long-term US bond yields resume their uptrend, after their recent consolidation, and force a re-examination of the lack of any risk premia either in equities or credit. Eminently the fact that the world is still awash in central bank liquidity, and the additional pressure on investors to hunt down risk assets via way of the injection of cash from an estimated $800 Bln of share buybacks related to the US tax reform will tend to reinforce the FOMO (fear of missing out) mentality.
** U.K. - January Industrial Production / Trade Balance **
- Industrial Production is expected to see an unwinds of the impact of the Forties oil pipeline outage, which saw a 1.3% m/m drop in December, and is expected to result in a 1.5% m/m rebound for January. Manufacturing Output by contrast is seen ploughing a steady upward path with a 0.2% m/m rise for a 2.8% y/y gain, following 0.3% m/m in December, and very much in line with the solid if unspectacular indications from the PMI and the CBI Industrial Trends survey. As for Trade, the deficit is expected to narrow from a much wider than anticipated £-13.58 Bln in December to a still very large £-11.9 Bln, which would also be wide of the 12-mth average deficit of £-11.5 Bln. Last month's bounce (1.6% m/m -0.2% y/y) in the very erratic and volatile Construction Output is seen partially reversed by a -0.5% m/m, though it will probably not be until February that the full impact of the Carillion collapse shows up in official data.
** U.S.A. - February labour market report **
- It has to be observed that the array of anecdotal evidence related to today's Payrolls reading is so overwhelmingly positive that the risk and the contrarian position is may be this is a recipe for a downside surprise. Eminently, and has been the case for a number of months, the Payrolls component is definitely subordinated to Average Hourly Earnings, above all from a Fed policy trajectory perspective. Be that as it may, the risks do look to be to the upside of the consensus +200K, with the Unemployment Rate projected to dip to a fresh cyclical low of 4.0% (from 4.1%), the lowest since September 2000. However the Underemployment Rate at 8.2% remains above the 8.0% cyclical lows of October & November, and well above the 7.0% previous cyclical low in September 2000. The latter plays into the relative importance accorded to the Average Hourly Earnings, which are expected to rise by the standard 0.2% m/m, which would see the y/y dip to 2.8% from January's cyclical high of 2.9%, and if that is correct, there will be many who question whether there is a material upward shift in wage settlements, and again point to the weather related factors behind January's pick-up.
from Marc Ostwald
wars will not take root improve investor sentiment; No change BoJ, China
CPI & PPI, Japan wages and disappointing French/German Production to
digest; UK Production & Trade, US and Canada Jobs reports and Brazil
inflation ahead
- UK Production: headline to bounce back from Forties pipeline outage,
manufacturing seen ploughing steady expansion
- UK Trade deficit to narrow after unexpected Dec surge, but still
above 12-mth average
- US Payrolls: anecdotal evidence overwhelmingly points to better than
expected outturn; market risk therefore via any downside surprise
- US Unemployment Rate seen posting matching 2000 low, but Underemployment
still something of a black spot (see chart)
- US Average Hourly Earnings expected to post modest gain, suggesting Jan
rise more a function of weather effects, anecdotal evidence still hinting
at acceleration
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A busy day for statistics to end the week, though the events schedule is limited to digesting the highly unsurprising BoJ decision to keep all its various policy parameters unchanged, and a speech from the always very dovish Chicago Fed boss Evans. The US labour data clearly take pride of place in the schedule, but ahead of that there are a barrage of trade and production data in the UK and Eurozone, along with Canadian labour data and Brazilian IBGE IPCA inflation, along with the overnight China inflation (heavily influenced Lunar New Year Year base effects, most notably in Food prices) and Japan wages prints (effectively confirming why the BoJ is still far away from any QQE exit as confirmed by today's policy decision), and notably higher than expected Norway headline CPI, though core CPI remains very subdued). As such next week's busy schedule of US data including CPI and Retail Sales, China Industrial Production, FAI and Retail Sales, and Japanese Machinery Orders will probably not be given much thought. Eminently signs of easing tensions on the Korean peninsula, and the exemptions for Canada and Mexico on the steel and aluminium tariffs may prove to be more a talking point and influence on financial markets. It is worth observing that the 'buy the dip' mentality that has been so prevalent for a number of years has clearly not been dislodged despite 1.0% plus moves in equity indices are again the norm, i.e. confirming that underlying volatility has seen upward shift, even if it still remains subdued by any historical standards. The near term question is whether long-term US bond yields resume their uptrend, after their recent consolidation, and force a re-examination of the lack of any risk premia either in equities or credit. Eminently the fact that the world is still awash in central bank liquidity, and the additional pressure on investors to hunt down risk assets via way of the injection of cash from an estimated $800 Bln of share buybacks related to the US tax reform will tend to reinforce the FOMO (fear of missing out) mentality.
** U.K. - January Industrial Production / Trade Balance **
- Industrial Production is expected to see an unwinds of the impact of the Forties oil pipeline outage, which saw a 1.3% m/m drop in December, and is expected to result in a 1.5% m/m rebound for January. Manufacturing Output by contrast is seen ploughing a steady upward path with a 0.2% m/m rise for a 2.8% y/y gain, following 0.3% m/m in December, and very much in line with the solid if unspectacular indications from the PMI and the CBI Industrial Trends survey. As for Trade, the deficit is expected to narrow from a much wider than anticipated £-13.58 Bln in December to a still very large £-11.9 Bln, which would also be wide of the 12-mth average deficit of £-11.5 Bln. Last month's bounce (1.6% m/m -0.2% y/y) in the very erratic and volatile Construction Output is seen partially reversed by a -0.5% m/m, though it will probably not be until February that the full impact of the Carillion collapse shows up in official data.
** U.S.A. - February labour market report **
- It has to be observed that the array of anecdotal evidence related to today's Payrolls reading is so overwhelmingly positive that the risk and the contrarian position is may be this is a recipe for a downside surprise. Eminently, and has been the case for a number of months, the Payrolls component is definitely subordinated to Average Hourly Earnings, above all from a Fed policy trajectory perspective. Be that as it may, the risks do look to be to the upside of the consensus +200K, with the Unemployment Rate projected to dip to a fresh cyclical low of 4.0% (from 4.1%), the lowest since September 2000. However the Underemployment Rate at 8.2% remains above the 8.0% cyclical lows of October & November, and well above the 7.0% previous cyclical low in September 2000. The latter plays into the relative importance accorded to the Average Hourly Earnings, which are expected to rise by the standard 0.2% m/m, which would see the y/y dip to 2.8% from January's cyclical high of 2.9%, and if that is correct, there will be many who question whether there is a material upward shift in wage settlements, and again point to the weather related factors behind January's pick-up.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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12316...and bounce
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eurusd 1.2300 for a pump or dump
there now
there now
Dentalfloss
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dump
excellent stuff
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12300 area failed..into our 12280 area
