Trading with point and figure

Dax into the open
its in rez..Draghi talkin later.....who knows...lol

5cmtqs.png
 
Mornin' el Presidente!

A fair bit happening for me what with the ECB and all that.

Am still long underwater from yesterday at .8949 - 15 min chart looks undecided whereas 5 min looks bearish. We're at .8920 area which has served as a pivot several times of late.
 

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dentist007 said:
Stuck my teeth in with Poli Grip in case Draghi pulls a fast one
Click to expand...

Seems to me that more of the same (i.e no change) is what is most likely but that Mario will no doubt say something that will give us a move of some kind. If we do get a surprise then isn't that going to be on the upside?
 
cantagril said:
Seems to me that more of the same (i.e no change) is what is most likely but that Mario will no doubt say something that will give us a move of some kind. If we do get a surprise then isn't that going to be on the upside?
Click to expand...

yes

if there is a surprise....then a new set is 270 on the nhs
 
Digesting talk of US tariff exemptions & Fed Beige Book, China Trade,
Japan GDP, German Orders and UK RICS, focus on ECB meeting; US jobless
claims and Mexico CPI, gaggle of corporate earnings

- China Trade: Lunar New year effects heavily in evidence, but commods
data underlines sharp drop in steel exports trend rate, impact of
Consumption Tax on 'teapot' refiner demand for crude imports

- ECB: focus on whether easing bias dropped, forecast tweaks, Q&A likely
to be filled with questions on US tariffs and Italy election

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The day's run of scheduled data and events is a little lop-sided, in so far as the key data was published overnight, while the ECB meeting dominates the events schedule for the rest of the day. There are the China Trade, higher than expected Japan Q4 GDP revision, UK RICS House Prices (chiming in with other weak housing indicators) and just published German Factory Orders (much weaker than expected, above all due to downward revision to Dec, though possibly weather affected) to digest, with US weekly jobless claims and Mexico CPI the only other items on the agenda. Govt bond supply comes via Ireland (4 & 10-yr), while the corporate earnings schedule has Areva, Aviva, Capita, Continental, and Linde in Europe, and Dell in the USA. While the focus in terms of the US labour market is naturally on tomorrow's monthly labour data, it is worth noting that today's Claims are expected to edge up from a 49-year low of 210K to 220K, underlining the continued strength of labour demand, which was also implied by the better than expected +235K ADP Employment estimate yesterday, as well as the Fed's Beige Book ("Most Districts cited on-going labor market tightness and challenges finding qualified workers across skills and sectors, which, in some instances, was described as constraining growth"). In respect of the China Trade data, it is always best to aggregate January and February Trade data due to the hefty distortions from Lunar New Year effects (above all in timing terms), thus the strength of commodity imports in January and the sharp reversal in February are merely a mirror image of each other. However a couple of points are worth noting: a) steel exports have averaged around 4.5 Mln over the past 6 months, which is very low by any historical standards (see chart), and effectively confirms that production curbs and strong domestic demand are reducing volumes available for export! b) In the metals sector as a whole (i.e. steel, iron ore, copper, aluminium) January and February imports tend to be weaker due to winter factory closures, and that has been further exacerbated by pollution controls, the key question is what happens when the pollution related curbs are lifted as spring arrives, with Iron Ore imports still at strong levels, suggesting producers have been restocking in preparation for the normally high demand months of March and April. c) Crude oil imports look to be somewhat subdued by lower demand from so-called 'teapot' refiners in reaction to the imposition of a consumption tax, which has been implemented to clamp down on tax evasion by these refiners.

** Eurozone - ECB meeting **
- Having signalled at the turn of the year, that the council might make some major policy announcements at today's policy meeting contingent on the fresh set of staff forecasts, which will be published today, the usual array of ECB sources have pushed back sharply on any such expectations, though they have indicated there will be a discussion about dropping the easing bias from the statement. Lower than expected CPI readings and a firmer Euro, and heightened trade tensions with the US all play into the ECB council's caution, though there remain a large number of council members who a) believe that an easing bias is no longer appropriate given solid underlying growth momentum and falling unemployment, and would doubtless add that while inflation may not be headed back to target near-term, the disinflationary risks have gone. b) Many of these were also uncomfortable with the lack of an end date for the QE programme, when the extension was announced in October. While it is 100% not the case that removing the easing bias would be a 'hawkish' signal, the dovish wing of the will be keen to avoid anything that boosts the EUR, and prefer something that might exercise some downward pressure. The trick might be a downward revision to the 2018 CPI forecasts (Headline Dec projection 1.3% with 2019 seen at 1.6% and 2020 1.9%, Core 1.1%, 1.5% and 1.8% respectively) and a slightly more emphatic 'the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.' Inevitably the press conference will also have plenty of questions about US trade tariffs, as well as the Italian election.

from Marc Ostwald
 
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