Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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C
cantagril
C
cantagril
Half off .8929 +19
Dentalfloss
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dax
we had 11700=11900 as supp...missed it
we had 11700=11900 as supp...missed it
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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EG 0.8930 is prev supp
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dax 11900-12K is rez
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dow in rez
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ditto eurusd
Dentalfloss
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- Services PMI dominate data schedule, but all eyes on Italy political
gridlock and Trump tariffs fall-out, as China parliament session opens
- Services PMIs: China and Eurozone solid, UK activity slower, US robust,
India weak
- Italy elections: all eyes turn to President Mattarella after stalemate,
strong Lega Nord & M5S showing a warning shot in case of new elections
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today kicks off the week with Services PMIs from around the world, which will primarily be of interest from the aspect that the dip in a number of the Manufacturing readings was pounced upon by some pundits as signalling that the best may be over for the world economy, though the US Manufacturing ISM served as a warning against overly hasty conclusions. But market chatter will be primarily focussed on the gridlock Italian election results, which puts the focus on President Mattarella and if he can cajole the Centre Right and Centre left into a grand coalition, which both sides have said they are not open to, though they might enter a supply and confidence agreement to support a technocratic government. That said, the fact is as the vote currently stands, the 5 Star Movement (M5S), Lega Nord and the much smaller Brothers of Italy garnered 49% of the vote, giving a very Euro and EU sceptic to the new parliament, even if this primarily reflects a deep seated popular anger at high unemployment and immigration. The latter factor needs to born in mind should no government be formed and fresh elections be called. If these were to be held during the summer, when the seasonal wave of migration from Africa is at its highest, those parties may well see a substantial boost in terms of their shares of the vote. The other factor will be whether the rest of the world waits for the details on the Trump tariffs, or goes straight for the jugular with tariffs that will target exporting businesses in every Republican state, as was the case in 2002 when Bush's ill-fated trade tariffs ended up costing the US steel industry some 200K jobs, according to industry estimates. The fall-out this time is likely to be primarily felt in the steel consuming industries, most obviously the auto sector.
In terms of the Services PMIs, the as expected modest dip in the China Caixin Services PMI continues to be indicative of the economy gradually rebalancing away from industry to Services and Private Consumption, but will not distract the market focus on the fall-out from the authorities to resolve and curb debt and leverage, purge over-capacity in the industrial sector, rein in environmental destruction, and restrain speculation in the property sector - a complex web of interactions, the outcome of which remains very uncertain. Following from the slightly better than expected Q4 GDP, but much weaker than expected Manufacturing, today's sharp drop in the Indian Services PMI (57.8 vs. Jan 51.1) offers good reason to question whether the positive GDP signal will be sustained, as rising inflation once again constrains activity. Eurozone Services PMIs are likely to remain at levels indicative of a very robust level of activity, with the dips in Germany & France expected to be confirmed, Spain beating expectations (57.3 vs. 56.9) and Italy seen posting a dip to 57.0 from 57.7. The UK Services PMI is seen edging up to 53.3, after a sharper than expected fall to 53.0 from 54.2 in January, overall indicative of a slower pace of activity relative to the middle part of this decade, but still reasonably solid. The US Non-manufacturing ISM is forecast to dip, but at 59.0 from 59.9, the underlying pace of activity remains very strong.
RECAP: The Week Ahead - Preview & Highlights: 5 to 9 March 2018
As this week has more than amply demonstrated, politics stilll casts a long shadow over markets, even if they appear on occasion to be rather impervious, even complacent about political risk. Next week's proceedings may be contingent on any unexpected outturns in Italy and Germany, and how the rest of the world reacts and responds to the US tariff details. But in the absence of any dramas on those fronts, the focus will be on the ECB meeting, China's National People Congress, the US labour report and China Trade and inflation data, with RBA and BoC policy meetings also due.
- Statistically, The US labour data are projected to show another solid Payrolls reading, though the 195K looks as ever to be rather agnostic. On the other hand the Unemployment Rate is seen at a fresh cyclical low of 4.0%, and perhaps most significantly Average Hourly Earnings are expected to maintain January's 0.3% m/m pace for an unchanged 2.9% y/y, though the 3-mth annualized rate would also be maintained at 4.0%. In the space between, the week also has Chinese CPI, PPI and Trade data, which may well see distortions from the Lunar New Year, and as such should be treated with great care. A busier week for the UK has BRC Retail Sales, RICS House Prices along with Industrial Production and Trade, which also feature in much of continental Europe, with German Factory Orders also due. Elsewhere Japanese Labour Cash Earnings and what will likely be fairly sharp upward revision to Q4 GDP (1.0% SAAR from 0.5%), Australian Q4 GDP and Canada's labour data.
- Both Australia's RBA and the Bank of Canada are seen holding policy rates, with the former likely to stick to its resolutely neutral stance, while the latter will probably keep the door open for a rate hike in April, while emphasizing that its rate trajectory remains quite fluid, with markets likely to focus on what is said about trade tariffs and NAFTA talks (final day of current round ends today). Thereafter attention turns to the Fed's Beige Book, which will likely paint an upbeat picture of the US economy (and will be accompanied by a goodly volume of Fed speak), and the ECB council meeting, which will also see a fresh set of staff economic forecasts. ECB 'sources' have suggested that there will not be any major policy changes signalled, though the council will likely debate dropping the ECB's easing bias from the statement. After the Euro's recent gyrations, it will also be interesting to see how much prominence is given to the Euro. The Bank of Japan concludes a busy week for major central bank policy meetings, and as has been the case since mid-January, the BOJ will be keen to stress that while the trend in inflation is improving, it remains a long way from being anywhere close to target, and as such a change to its Yield Curve Control and QQE policy settings are not up for debate in the near term. Elsewhere Peru's central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 bps for the sixth time since May 2017 to a low of 2.75%, while rates are seen unchanged in Turkey, Malaysia, Georgia and Kazakhstan.
- The corporate earnings season is winding down, though the there are reports in Europe from Akzo Nobel, Aviva, Capita, Deutsche Post, Linde and Rolls Royce, while Dell and Target are among those reporting in the US.
- Government bond supply is modest with Germany offering two-inflation linked Bunds and OBLs, while Austria sells 4 & 10-yr and the UK auctions a 30-yr Gilt.
- Energy markets will be casting an eye in the direction of the annual CERAWeek energy industry conference in the USA, which has numerous keynote speakers including OPEC chief Barkindo.
from Marc Ostwald
gridlock and Trump tariffs fall-out, as China parliament session opens
- Services PMIs: China and Eurozone solid, UK activity slower, US robust,
India weak
- Italy elections: all eyes turn to President Mattarella after stalemate,
strong Lega Nord & M5S showing a warning shot in case of new elections
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today kicks off the week with Services PMIs from around the world, which will primarily be of interest from the aspect that the dip in a number of the Manufacturing readings was pounced upon by some pundits as signalling that the best may be over for the world economy, though the US Manufacturing ISM served as a warning against overly hasty conclusions. But market chatter will be primarily focussed on the gridlock Italian election results, which puts the focus on President Mattarella and if he can cajole the Centre Right and Centre left into a grand coalition, which both sides have said they are not open to, though they might enter a supply and confidence agreement to support a technocratic government. That said, the fact is as the vote currently stands, the 5 Star Movement (M5S), Lega Nord and the much smaller Brothers of Italy garnered 49% of the vote, giving a very Euro and EU sceptic to the new parliament, even if this primarily reflects a deep seated popular anger at high unemployment and immigration. The latter factor needs to born in mind should no government be formed and fresh elections be called. If these were to be held during the summer, when the seasonal wave of migration from Africa is at its highest, those parties may well see a substantial boost in terms of their shares of the vote. The other factor will be whether the rest of the world waits for the details on the Trump tariffs, or goes straight for the jugular with tariffs that will target exporting businesses in every Republican state, as was the case in 2002 when Bush's ill-fated trade tariffs ended up costing the US steel industry some 200K jobs, according to industry estimates. The fall-out this time is likely to be primarily felt in the steel consuming industries, most obviously the auto sector.
In terms of the Services PMIs, the as expected modest dip in the China Caixin Services PMI continues to be indicative of the economy gradually rebalancing away from industry to Services and Private Consumption, but will not distract the market focus on the fall-out from the authorities to resolve and curb debt and leverage, purge over-capacity in the industrial sector, rein in environmental destruction, and restrain speculation in the property sector - a complex web of interactions, the outcome of which remains very uncertain. Following from the slightly better than expected Q4 GDP, but much weaker than expected Manufacturing, today's sharp drop in the Indian Services PMI (57.8 vs. Jan 51.1) offers good reason to question whether the positive GDP signal will be sustained, as rising inflation once again constrains activity. Eurozone Services PMIs are likely to remain at levels indicative of a very robust level of activity, with the dips in Germany & France expected to be confirmed, Spain beating expectations (57.3 vs. 56.9) and Italy seen posting a dip to 57.0 from 57.7. The UK Services PMI is seen edging up to 53.3, after a sharper than expected fall to 53.0 from 54.2 in January, overall indicative of a slower pace of activity relative to the middle part of this decade, but still reasonably solid. The US Non-manufacturing ISM is forecast to dip, but at 59.0 from 59.9, the underlying pace of activity remains very strong.
RECAP: The Week Ahead - Preview & Highlights: 5 to 9 March 2018
As this week has more than amply demonstrated, politics stilll casts a long shadow over markets, even if they appear on occasion to be rather impervious, even complacent about political risk. Next week's proceedings may be contingent on any unexpected outturns in Italy and Germany, and how the rest of the world reacts and responds to the US tariff details. But in the absence of any dramas on those fronts, the focus will be on the ECB meeting, China's National People Congress, the US labour report and China Trade and inflation data, with RBA and BoC policy meetings also due.
- Statistically, The US labour data are projected to show another solid Payrolls reading, though the 195K looks as ever to be rather agnostic. On the other hand the Unemployment Rate is seen at a fresh cyclical low of 4.0%, and perhaps most significantly Average Hourly Earnings are expected to maintain January's 0.3% m/m pace for an unchanged 2.9% y/y, though the 3-mth annualized rate would also be maintained at 4.0%. In the space between, the week also has Chinese CPI, PPI and Trade data, which may well see distortions from the Lunar New Year, and as such should be treated with great care. A busier week for the UK has BRC Retail Sales, RICS House Prices along with Industrial Production and Trade, which also feature in much of continental Europe, with German Factory Orders also due. Elsewhere Japanese Labour Cash Earnings and what will likely be fairly sharp upward revision to Q4 GDP (1.0% SAAR from 0.5%), Australian Q4 GDP and Canada's labour data.
- Both Australia's RBA and the Bank of Canada are seen holding policy rates, with the former likely to stick to its resolutely neutral stance, while the latter will probably keep the door open for a rate hike in April, while emphasizing that its rate trajectory remains quite fluid, with markets likely to focus on what is said about trade tariffs and NAFTA talks (final day of current round ends today). Thereafter attention turns to the Fed's Beige Book, which will likely paint an upbeat picture of the US economy (and will be accompanied by a goodly volume of Fed speak), and the ECB council meeting, which will also see a fresh set of staff economic forecasts. ECB 'sources' have suggested that there will not be any major policy changes signalled, though the council will likely debate dropping the ECB's easing bias from the statement. After the Euro's recent gyrations, it will also be interesting to see how much prominence is given to the Euro. The Bank of Japan concludes a busy week for major central bank policy meetings, and as has been the case since mid-January, the BOJ will be keen to stress that while the trend in inflation is improving, it remains a long way from being anywhere close to target, and as such a change to its Yield Curve Control and QQE policy settings are not up for debate in the near term. Elsewhere Peru's central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 bps for the sixth time since May 2017 to a low of 2.75%, while rates are seen unchanged in Turkey, Malaysia, Georgia and Kazakhstan.
- The corporate earnings season is winding down, though the there are reports in Europe from Akzo Nobel, Aviva, Capita, Deutsche Post, Linde and Rolls Royce, while Dell and Target are among those reporting in the US.
- Government bond supply is modest with Germany offering two-inflation linked Bunds and OBLs, while Austria sells 4 & 10-yr and the UK auctions a 30-yr Gilt.
- Energy markets will be casting an eye in the direction of the annual CERAWeek energy industry conference in the USA, which has numerous keynote speakers including OPEC chief Barkindo.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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spx 2685 area starts bigger rez
there now
there now
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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spx
in a consolidation...nowt else
in a consolidation...nowt else
Dentalfloss
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12K area....and dump
excellent stuff
excellent stuff
Dentalfloss
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Had to wait for the blow off
Dentalfloss
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11900 supporetd and off we went
Dentalfloss
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dow 24520 for a pump or dump
there now
there now
Dentalfloss
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EG
dump from our .8930
excellent stuff
dump from our .8930
excellent stuff
Dentalfloss
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GBP got a bit of strength today
C
cantagril
Stopped on N°2 at .8915 +5
