Trading with point and figure

if 12K fails...then 11.7K to 11.9K first supp area
it could go anywhere in that area

12100 then 12150 first rez
 
forgot to mention the Smoot-Hawley tariff act of 1930
supposedly brought on the Great depression
However,that was on 20K sets of goods
 
Eurusd

534sgw.png
 
- Trump tariffs, May Brexit speech, and Sunday votes in Italy and Germany
likely to render modest data schedule rather irrelevant; broadly as
expected Tokyo CPI to digest ahead of UK Construction PMI and Canada
GDP; Carney and Mersch to speak

- Trump steel tariffs: Canada, Brazil and South Korea far more at risk
than China

- Italy elections: markets remarkably indifferent to any risk, polls
suggest stalemate, though new electoral law suggests polls need to be
treated with care

- Canada GDP: modest acceleration seen for Q4 vs Q3, but December forecast
suggests loss of momentum going into 2018

- Charts: Top Steel Exporting countries, US HY OAS spread vs Junk bond ETF,
JPM EMBI average spread vs. JPM EM bond ETF

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

Trump's Steel and Aluminium tariffs along with Powell's clear though modest shift in signalling on the Fed's rate trajectory may well prove to be the strongest influence on trading, as another week draw to a close. Statistically the focal points will be digesting the Japan Tokyo CPI and national Unemployment data along with South Korea's Industrial Production and the as ever erratic German Retail Sales, while ahead lie the UK Construction PMI and Canadian montly and quarterly GDP. On the event side of the equation, there are speeches from BoE's Carney and ECB's Mersch, though these seem likely to be subordinate to political developments, with the Irish border issue once again front and central and very problematic in terms of Brexit negotiations, as PM May lays out the government's detailed plans (supposedly) in a keynote speech today, in which she will outline 5 tests for a successful Brexit. In respect of the still to be detailed tariffs announced by Trump, there are a couple of points worth noting, a) how quickly will other countries respond (with counter measures) and does the imposition in effect torpedo any chance of renegotiating NAFTA, and b) in terms of steel, this will hit the likes of Canada, Brazil, South Korea, Japan , Mexico, and Australia much harder than China, which is in fact outside of the top 10 exporter of steel / steel products to the USA, accounting for just 2% of US steel imports, despite it being by far the biggest Steel exporter in the world (see attached graphic). In passing it seems that Kuroda's comments overnight are being interpreted as signalling the BoJ is preparing an exit from its QQE policy. In truth he said nothing new, and he emphasized that an upward adjustment to the 10yr YCC target of 0.0% is not vaguely on the BoJ's radar, given that inflation is still way below the 2.0% objective. We would rather suggest that the JPY strength is a Flight to Quality / Safety reaction to the prospect of trade wars rather than a reaction to Kuroda.

Sunday will of course bring the Italian general election, as well as the result of the SPD's membership vote on forming a grand coalition with CDU/CSU. It has to be observed that neither event appears to be seen as a genuine risk event for financial markets, given that the weakness of the EUR has primarily been a function of Powell's supposed hawkish turn. The (modest) outperformance of the Italian equity market over the past couple of days relative to its Eurozone peer group underlines this. Opinion polls are forbidden by law in Italy in the 2 weeks before the election, but the final polls suggested that no grouping / party will win an overall an majority, but with the new 'Rosatellum' voting system in place, these could easily be wrong. The most likely outcome is a hung parliament, or a small majority for the right wing parties, which would be seen as a positive for Italian assets, but have no impact on EUR. However much depends on just how strong the voter for M5S is in the south, which could possibly usher in a seemingly unlikely coalition between M5S and the Northern League, which markets would likely interpret as sharply increasing the risk of a Euro/EU sceptic government. Both Renzi's PD and Berlusconi's Forza Italia have ruled out a grand coalition, with Berlusconi suggesting he would rather see PM Gentilloni carry on at the head of some form of technocratic government, or fresh elections. But if the result is inconclusive, the task of fashioning a government lies in the provenance of President Mattarella. For the EUR, the more significant risk is that Germany’s SPD party membership vote rejects the formation of the grand coalition with the CDU/CSU, but opinion polls suggest it will be approved by a small majority (55-60%). If that is wrong, then the EUR will come under pressure, as will German and Eurozone equities, though reaction in EUR govt bond markets is likely to remain contained by the ECB’s QE programme.

In the wake of the Trump tariffs, today's Canadian GDP data are probably of less significance than might otherwise have been the case, given a relatively fluid outlook for the BoC's rate trajectory, and much speculation that the Canadian economy may have in fact peaked in Q3. That said, the consensus looks for a modest pick-up in Q4 GDP to 2.0% SAAR vs. Q3's 1.7%, though the accompanying December GDP reading is seen at just 0.1% m/m, implying that the economy was losing momentum going into 2018.
from Marc Ostwald
 
cantagril said:
Short .8842
Click to expand...

Finally got out of this yesterday at .8851 -9.

Not going to attempt to do anything trade-ish today. Will wait for things to become ...um, different, over the w/e.

Am concentrating on rounding up the huskies and making a trip to the supermarket to see if there's anything left on the shelves due to the panic-buying. There's been rumours of another hummus crisis and if there's a run on quinoa, I just don't know what I'll do.
 
first horizontal supp area 2642-2662
then 2616 to 2640

if 2640 area breaks...then a wide horizontal supp area at 2530-2640

there is also an area below which tests the red trendline at 2400-2525 area

could go anywhere.....so wide areas marked
bulls have plenty of support to choose from
 
a break below 11900...there is a mass of supp down to 11.5K

goin either way
bulls got some clout on Friday...can they folow thru..?
 
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