Dentalfloss
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market has just realised that we still have no trade deals lined up
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Missed the long at 350, couldn't get filled!!!
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Dentalfloss
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and no strong leader
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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ftse in a support area
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Gone long 13353
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Dentalfloss
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dow in a pivot 26625 for a pum or dump
there now
there now
Dentalfloss
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eurusd has a supp area@ 1.2330 to 1.2360
could get a hammerin
could get a hammerin
Moneylender
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Dentalfloss
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- Quiet day in data terms to start the week as month end looms: US Personal
Income/PCE & Belgian GDP; EU Brexit negotiating directive and India GDP
outlook; markets continue to trample over news in rush to reach for risk
and yield
- Week Ahead: Eurozone GDP & CPI, US Payrolls, Consumer Confidence and Auto
Sales, Japan growth and labour data, Australia CPI and Canada GDP
- Week Ahead: FOMC meeting heavily unanticipated; Carney testimony and
smattering of ECB speaking
- Week Ahead; busy week for US and European corporate earnings
- Charts: US 10 yr yield, 5/30 yr yield, 5 & 10yr TIPS breakeven inflation
rate; German 5 yr yield; US and EUR HY spread, US Junk bond ETF, JPM
EMBI yield spread; various energy & metals futures
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Outside of the US Personal Income / PCE data (see week ahead below) and Belgian Q4 GDP, there is little on the data schedule today, while the events schedule has some Riskbank speak, the preamble to this week's election year budget in India and an expected no change rate decision in Colombia. Markets indifference to incoming news adn rising govt bond yields remains perhaps the most remarkable aspect of 2018 to date, though obviously this is a trend that has been gaining traction for some time, and clearly has put the Fed's (modest? Ed.) efforts to tighten financial conditions completely to the sword (see chart of US financial conditions vs. Fed Funds Rate, with the lack of any risk premium in credit spreads all too evident, even if the appetite for HY credit does appear to have waned somewhat (see various charts attached). It is not difficult to conclude that this probably signals that G7 central banks have vastly overplayed their hand in terms of unconventional monetary policy measures, and will by extension prove to be the architects and executors of the next financial crisis.
- The Week Ahead - preview: 29 January to 02 February 2018
* 2018's first month end beckons, with a sharp outperformance by equities relative to a soggy month for government bonds (even if credit has done well in spread terms), which implies some rebalancing flows into bonds. A relatively busy week for data has numerous Q4 GDP readings in Europe, Eurozone CPI, the array of monthly growth metrics from Japan and to end the week US labour data among its highlights. Yellen's valedictory meeting as Fed chair, Trump's State of the Union address, China's National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting on constitutional reforms and UK PM May's visit to China feature on the events side of the calendar. Tech sector and a number of major industrial concerns top a busy week for US and European corporate earnings. France, Spain and Germany auction debt in the Eurozone, while the UK sells 2048 Index-Linked Gilts via syndication.
* Statistically perhaps the most poignant question is will any of this week's data points be game changers, or merely 'five minute wonders' as has been the case for a protracted period? In the Eurozone, the advance estimate for Q4 GDP is expected to see another solid 0.6% q/q, to edge the y/y rate up to 2.7% from Q3's 2.6%, led by Germany (not publishing this week) and Spain (exp. 0.7% q/q), with France expected to dip to 0.5% q/q from 0.6%; Belgium and the Baltic countries also report this week. Inevitably the counter to any suggestion that this puts the ECB under pressure to step away from its QE programme, and even consider a rate hike, will be that projections for this week's provisional January CPI data look for headline to dip to 1.3% y/y from 1.4%, and core to edge up to 1.0% y/y from 0.9% - neither of which offer robust enough support for the proposition that inflation is on a sustainable path back to the ECB's target of 'just below 2.0%'. Among other Euro area highlights, the ever erratic German Retail Sales and French Consumer Spending accompany the EC's various confidence surveys.
A quiet week for major data in the UK, with BRC Shop Prices, Consumer Credit and Mortgage Approvals on tap along with GfK Consumer Confidence and Lloyds Business Barometer. As elsewhere the gamut of PMIs are also due.
In the USA, the labour data top the schedule, with Payrolls seen rebounding to around their recent average at 184K, and Average Earnings also expected to post a further solid 0.3% m/m rise to push the y/y rate back up to 2.7%, the Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at its cyclical low of 4.1%. The Q4 Employment Cost Index will also get attention, with expectations projecting a dip to 0.5% q/q from 0.7%. The week kicks off with Personal Income and PCE, which were pre-empted by Friday's Q4 GDP, while the key PCE deflators are seen at 1.7% y/y vs. 1.8% headline, with core at 1.6% y/y from 1.5% - neither of which force a change of tune from the Fed's doves and neutrals. Consumer Confidence is expected to remain very strong, moving up to 123.0 from December's 123.1. January Auto Sales are seen moderating further to a still very solid 17.30 Mln SAAR pace vs. December's 17.76 mln, with a potential drag from the big freeze in the early part of the month.
Japan has its usual end of month run of data that is seen confirming a very tight labour market (though wages stats are published next week), a reasonable pace of consumer spending, and a robust reading of 1.6% m/m for Industrial Production. Australia's Q4 CPI is expected to pick up modestly, but at 2.0% y/y headline (vs 1.9%) and with core measures at 1.9% y/y from 1.8%, while wage growth continues to see little sign of accelerating from very subdued levels, and with a relatively firm AUD, the RBA will hardly be in a rush to signal a change to its very neutral (i.e. steady) rate outlook. Canada's November GDP is expected to pick up from a soft start to Q4, and is seen at 0.4% m/m after a flat reading in October.
* Central Banks: Yellen's last hoorah as Fed chair will inevitably attract some attention, but can hardly be described as hotly anticipated, not only due to the lack of a press conference or fresh set of economic projections, but also because such 'handover' meetings tend to offer nothing that 'rocks the boat' for the successor. The statement may indeed see few changes relative to December (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20171213a.htm ), though the dissents from Evans and Kashkari will be absent as they are no longer voters, with the 2018 voting members rather more hawkishly inclined, most notably Cleveland Fed's Mester and SF Fed's Williams. The latter is at the time of writing the only scheduled Fed speaker this week. There will be a smattering of ECB speak this week, with markets sensitive to the less accommodative lean of many ECB speakers, despite Draghi's efforts to push back on market expectations of a December rate hike last week. BoE governor Carney gives his annual testimony to the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, and will doubtless face questions about his reported comments (to a private breakfast meeting) that Brexit costs the UK £200 Mln in lost GDP every week. The BOJ releases January Policy Meeting's Summary of Opinions, which will attract much attention after contradictory policy hints from BoJ chief Kuroda last week. Following from the re-election of EU sceptic president Zeman at the weekend, the Czech National Bank is seen hiking rates a further 25 bps to 0.75%, in the wake of a sustained pick-up in inflation and indeed solid growth, and despite the recent strength of the CZK. Elsewhere rates are expected to be held in Angola, Chile, Colombia, Georgia and Hungary,
* Politics - President Trump follows up on what was a less confrontational, but nevertheless exemplary display of self-serving tub-thumping in Davos with his first 'State of the Union' address to Congress, which as Reuters have quipped will likely 'raise eyebrows more than stocks'. UK PM may trundles off with a business delegation to China, which will doubtless yield volumes of platitudes and little of substance, while backbenchers in her own party appear to get ever more restless, with continued chatter about a leadership challenge. Meanwhile in Germany, CDU/CSU and SPD leaders are said to be pushing for a coalition agreement within one week, though there still appears to be a large gulf on the thorny issue of immigration, as well as changes to employment laws and taxation.
* Earnings - the tech sector, above all the FANGs, dominates the week's busy US and European earnings schedule. Monday sees Lockheed Martin and Seagate, while Tuesday has Banco Santander and SAP, and 'across the pond' AMD, Corning, HCA, McDonald's and Pfizer. Wednesday brings ArcelorMittal, H&M, Infineon, Siemens and Volvo, while the US looks to AT&T, Boeing, eBay, Eli Lilly, Facebook, MetLife, Microsoft, PayPal & Qualcomm. Thursday has BBVA, Daimler, Roche, Royal Dutch Shell & Unilever, with the US watching for Alibaba, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, ConocoPhillips, Mastercard, Time Warner, UPS & Visa, and Friday brings AstraZeneca, BT, Deutsche Bank, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Merck & Co and Sprint.
* Commodities: A weak USD and a robust profile to global growth should in principle be good more than just crude oil markets, which continue to march higher. The eternal wildcard of weather factors may offer some props in the Agri sector, with a rising volume of flood warnings in Europe (above all France and Germany), and the protracted period of intense heat in Australia the themes du jour. Meanwhile China's efforts to curb pollution continue to play out as key factors in the LNG and coal rallies. (see various attached charts on energy and China metals futures).
from Marc Ostwald
Income/PCE & Belgian GDP; EU Brexit negotiating directive and India GDP
outlook; markets continue to trample over news in rush to reach for risk
and yield
- Week Ahead: Eurozone GDP & CPI, US Payrolls, Consumer Confidence and Auto
Sales, Japan growth and labour data, Australia CPI and Canada GDP
- Week Ahead: FOMC meeting heavily unanticipated; Carney testimony and
smattering of ECB speaking
- Week Ahead; busy week for US and European corporate earnings
- Charts: US 10 yr yield, 5/30 yr yield, 5 & 10yr TIPS breakeven inflation
rate; German 5 yr yield; US and EUR HY spread, US Junk bond ETF, JPM
EMBI yield spread; various energy & metals futures
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Outside of the US Personal Income / PCE data (see week ahead below) and Belgian Q4 GDP, there is little on the data schedule today, while the events schedule has some Riskbank speak, the preamble to this week's election year budget in India and an expected no change rate decision in Colombia. Markets indifference to incoming news adn rising govt bond yields remains perhaps the most remarkable aspect of 2018 to date, though obviously this is a trend that has been gaining traction for some time, and clearly has put the Fed's (modest? Ed.) efforts to tighten financial conditions completely to the sword (see chart of US financial conditions vs. Fed Funds Rate, with the lack of any risk premium in credit spreads all too evident, even if the appetite for HY credit does appear to have waned somewhat (see various charts attached). It is not difficult to conclude that this probably signals that G7 central banks have vastly overplayed their hand in terms of unconventional monetary policy measures, and will by extension prove to be the architects and executors of the next financial crisis.
- The Week Ahead - preview: 29 January to 02 February 2018
* 2018's first month end beckons, with a sharp outperformance by equities relative to a soggy month for government bonds (even if credit has done well in spread terms), which implies some rebalancing flows into bonds. A relatively busy week for data has numerous Q4 GDP readings in Europe, Eurozone CPI, the array of monthly growth metrics from Japan and to end the week US labour data among its highlights. Yellen's valedictory meeting as Fed chair, Trump's State of the Union address, China's National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting on constitutional reforms and UK PM May's visit to China feature on the events side of the calendar. Tech sector and a number of major industrial concerns top a busy week for US and European corporate earnings. France, Spain and Germany auction debt in the Eurozone, while the UK sells 2048 Index-Linked Gilts via syndication.
* Statistically perhaps the most poignant question is will any of this week's data points be game changers, or merely 'five minute wonders' as has been the case for a protracted period? In the Eurozone, the advance estimate for Q4 GDP is expected to see another solid 0.6% q/q, to edge the y/y rate up to 2.7% from Q3's 2.6%, led by Germany (not publishing this week) and Spain (exp. 0.7% q/q), with France expected to dip to 0.5% q/q from 0.6%; Belgium and the Baltic countries also report this week. Inevitably the counter to any suggestion that this puts the ECB under pressure to step away from its QE programme, and even consider a rate hike, will be that projections for this week's provisional January CPI data look for headline to dip to 1.3% y/y from 1.4%, and core to edge up to 1.0% y/y from 0.9% - neither of which offer robust enough support for the proposition that inflation is on a sustainable path back to the ECB's target of 'just below 2.0%'. Among other Euro area highlights, the ever erratic German Retail Sales and French Consumer Spending accompany the EC's various confidence surveys.
A quiet week for major data in the UK, with BRC Shop Prices, Consumer Credit and Mortgage Approvals on tap along with GfK Consumer Confidence and Lloyds Business Barometer. As elsewhere the gamut of PMIs are also due.
In the USA, the labour data top the schedule, with Payrolls seen rebounding to around their recent average at 184K, and Average Earnings also expected to post a further solid 0.3% m/m rise to push the y/y rate back up to 2.7%, the Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at its cyclical low of 4.1%. The Q4 Employment Cost Index will also get attention, with expectations projecting a dip to 0.5% q/q from 0.7%. The week kicks off with Personal Income and PCE, which were pre-empted by Friday's Q4 GDP, while the key PCE deflators are seen at 1.7% y/y vs. 1.8% headline, with core at 1.6% y/y from 1.5% - neither of which force a change of tune from the Fed's doves and neutrals. Consumer Confidence is expected to remain very strong, moving up to 123.0 from December's 123.1. January Auto Sales are seen moderating further to a still very solid 17.30 Mln SAAR pace vs. December's 17.76 mln, with a potential drag from the big freeze in the early part of the month.
Japan has its usual end of month run of data that is seen confirming a very tight labour market (though wages stats are published next week), a reasonable pace of consumer spending, and a robust reading of 1.6% m/m for Industrial Production. Australia's Q4 CPI is expected to pick up modestly, but at 2.0% y/y headline (vs 1.9%) and with core measures at 1.9% y/y from 1.8%, while wage growth continues to see little sign of accelerating from very subdued levels, and with a relatively firm AUD, the RBA will hardly be in a rush to signal a change to its very neutral (i.e. steady) rate outlook. Canada's November GDP is expected to pick up from a soft start to Q4, and is seen at 0.4% m/m after a flat reading in October.
* Central Banks: Yellen's last hoorah as Fed chair will inevitably attract some attention, but can hardly be described as hotly anticipated, not only due to the lack of a press conference or fresh set of economic projections, but also because such 'handover' meetings tend to offer nothing that 'rocks the boat' for the successor. The statement may indeed see few changes relative to December (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20171213a.htm ), though the dissents from Evans and Kashkari will be absent as they are no longer voters, with the 2018 voting members rather more hawkishly inclined, most notably Cleveland Fed's Mester and SF Fed's Williams. The latter is at the time of writing the only scheduled Fed speaker this week. There will be a smattering of ECB speak this week, with markets sensitive to the less accommodative lean of many ECB speakers, despite Draghi's efforts to push back on market expectations of a December rate hike last week. BoE governor Carney gives his annual testimony to the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, and will doubtless face questions about his reported comments (to a private breakfast meeting) that Brexit costs the UK £200 Mln in lost GDP every week. The BOJ releases January Policy Meeting's Summary of Opinions, which will attract much attention after contradictory policy hints from BoJ chief Kuroda last week. Following from the re-election of EU sceptic president Zeman at the weekend, the Czech National Bank is seen hiking rates a further 25 bps to 0.75%, in the wake of a sustained pick-up in inflation and indeed solid growth, and despite the recent strength of the CZK. Elsewhere rates are expected to be held in Angola, Chile, Colombia, Georgia and Hungary,
* Politics - President Trump follows up on what was a less confrontational, but nevertheless exemplary display of self-serving tub-thumping in Davos with his first 'State of the Union' address to Congress, which as Reuters have quipped will likely 'raise eyebrows more than stocks'. UK PM may trundles off with a business delegation to China, which will doubtless yield volumes of platitudes and little of substance, while backbenchers in her own party appear to get ever more restless, with continued chatter about a leadership challenge. Meanwhile in Germany, CDU/CSU and SPD leaders are said to be pushing for a coalition agreement within one week, though there still appears to be a large gulf on the thorny issue of immigration, as well as changes to employment laws and taxation.
* Earnings - the tech sector, above all the FANGs, dominates the week's busy US and European earnings schedule. Monday sees Lockheed Martin and Seagate, while Tuesday has Banco Santander and SAP, and 'across the pond' AMD, Corning, HCA, McDonald's and Pfizer. Wednesday brings ArcelorMittal, H&M, Infineon, Siemens and Volvo, while the US looks to AT&T, Boeing, eBay, Eli Lilly, Facebook, MetLife, Microsoft, PayPal & Qualcomm. Thursday has BBVA, Daimler, Roche, Royal Dutch Shell & Unilever, with the US watching for Alibaba, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, ConocoPhillips, Mastercard, Time Warner, UPS & Visa, and Friday brings AstraZeneca, BT, Deutsche Bank, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Merck & Co and Sprint.
* Commodities: A weak USD and a robust profile to global growth should in principle be good more than just crude oil markets, which continue to march higher. The eternal wildcard of weather factors may offer some props in the Agri sector, with a rising volume of flood warnings in Europe (above all France and Germany), and the protracted period of intense heat in Australia the themes du jour. Meanwhile China's efforts to curb pollution continue to play out as key factors in the LNG and coal rallies. (see various attached charts on energy and China metals futures).
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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Cable
1.4100 area is trend supp
1.4100 area is trend supp
Dentalfloss
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EG
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My Dax is struggling, maybe 13340 is base camp!
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
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lets see if 1.4100 area holds
C
cantagril
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Chicken ****!Mornin' all,
Missed a fun couple of days it appears....
Anyway, per ardua ad nauseam etc etc:
Long EG at .8775 . Chart mildly bullish methinks - looking for 95/10 to start. Just 2 lots - ML would say I'm chicken as usual
Lol
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Stop to plus 1
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