Trading with point and figure

[Moneylender]

Actually.......Am goin to the Churchill movie

Darkest hour, watched it a couple of nights ago, enjoyed it.

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[Moneylender]

Morning all.



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[f2calv]

Grantley Arms eh.
I'll be in Wood St Village visiting an uncle this weekend with my cousin.
What you doing Sat night?

I can recommend the Stephan Langton Inn next time you're in the area

 

[f2calv]

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Really liking Tapatalk! Thanks for the indirect recommendation :smart:

 

[Dentalfloss]

Cannot. Make it.....stay in in and washing my socks

I asked a young lady out.....when I was single.......she did give that excuse

 

[Dentalfloss]

She was a Scouser

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dax

 

[Dentalfloss]

pivot is 13130-13150 area....could get a visit

 

[Dentalfloss]

rez looming
13320-13340 area

 

[Dentalfloss]

- Digesting Japan CPI, awaiting UK & US Q4 advance GDP, US Durables, Trade
& Inventories; Trump speaks at Davos, Czech election & ECB Survey of
Professional Forecasters

- UK GDP: seen unchanged in q/q terms with y/y rate set to slow, NIESR
estimate points to upside risks; Services key

- US GDP: consensus looks for major drag from Net Exports and Inventories,
offset by strength in personal consumption, residential and business
investment: regional Fed surveys all imply upside risks

- US Durable Goods: solid headline gain, core may rebound more substantially
than forecasts assume

- Charts: UK and US GDP, Fed rate probabilities by meeting

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The week ends with something of a bang in data and events terms, with the largely as expected but still very low Japan CPI to digest ahead of the preliminary readings on UK and US Q4 GDP accompanying Trump's speech (rant? Ed.) at Davos, and the 'for what its worth' 2018 economic outlook from Carney, Kuroda & Lagarde. In the "also ran" category, it is worth mentioning that, counter to the narrative in much of the Anglo-Saxon media, polls for the second round of the Czech presidential elections that concludes tomorrow, indicate that the rather more moderate (pro-EU) Drahos could well oust sitting President Zeman, while the ECB follows up yesterday's rearguard action Draghi press conference with its quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters. Draghi found himself in an awkward position yesterday, on the one hand trying not to fuel further Euro gains vs the USD with a thinly veiled attack on Mnuchin's comments about the USD, and on the other conveying the view of the majority on the ECB council that assuming another round of positive ECB staff forecasts in March, then a Q3 end to the QE programme will likely be signalled. Unfortunately he reverted to rhetoric which is wearing thin with markets, above all the emphasis on the line in the statement "the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases", with the gratuitous additional 'guidance' that a rate hike before the end of this year was unlikely. Next week brings month end, which should see rebalancing flows from equities to bonds, Yellen's final FOMC meeting as Fed chair, Trump's state of the Union address, Eurozone CPI, US Payrolls, the end of month run of growth indicators from Japan, PMIs and a marked acceleration in the pace of US and European quarterly earnings, with the FANGs likely to attract most attention.

** U.K. / U.S.A. - Q4 advance GDP **
- The preliminary readings for UK and US Q4 GDP have consensus estimates for UK (0.4% q/q 1.4% y/y) and US (3.0% SAAR) which fall short of other gauges. For example in the UK, the NIESR last week suggested 0.6% q/q, while in the US the regional Fed GDP NowCast measures currently stand as follows - Atlanta 3.4%, St Louis 3.47% and NY 3.94%. In the UK much will depend on the Index of Services (forecast at 0.4%), with a solid contribution expected from Manufacturing, while the not necessarily reliable Retail Sales (0.4% q/q) point to a sluggish contribution from Personal Spending. Overall the UK economy continues to perform better than most had predicted, though is clearly lagging the majority of it G20 peers, and in the short-term renewed Tory party infighting imparts even greater uncertainty, on top of those related to Brexit. By contrast US Q4 Personal Consumption is (rather unsurprisingly) forecast to post a very solid 3.7% rise, with Net Exports likely to have been a key drag, though this is likely to have been offset by solid Business and Residential Investment, as well as a pick-up in govt spending, with inventories as ever a, if not the, wild card, but are likely to be a drag after a very substantial 0.79 ppt contribution to Q3 GDP. Overall 2017 GDP would on the basis of the consensus forecasts turn out around 2.3% y/y, a little disappointing due to the weakness in Q1 2017, but still a notable acceleration from 2016's sluggish 1.5% y/y. The delayed Trade and Wholesale/Retail Inventories (previewed yesterday) will also be published alongside Durable Goods Orders. The latter are forecast to post a 0.8% m/m rise at the headline level, with both core measures (ex-Transport and Non-defence Capital Goods ex-Aircraft) seen rebounding 0.6% m/m from transitory weakness in November; if the various orders components of manufacturing surveys are any guide, then the risk is that these measures will be considerably stronger than forecast, and/or see a notable upward revision to the November readings. Forward looking measures such as Unfilled Orders (last 4.6% y/y) suggest solid momentum continuing in Q1 2018.

from Marc Ostwald

 

[Dentalfloss]

cable...went back into our 1.4250 pivot area
dump
excellent stuff

 

[Dentalfloss]

26230 could get a hammerin
trend supp on our chart and horizontal supp

posted yesterday at 9.04am

could happen today
although Trump is speaking...markets could rally

that supp area moved up during yesterday to 26250 and then 26270
lets see what happens

 

[Dentalfloss]

rez looming
13320-13340 area

rez area...workin well

 

[Dentalfloss]

rez area...workin well

even better now

 

[Dentalfloss]

oil

 

[Moneylender]

Really liking Tapatalk! Thanks for the indirect recommendation :smart:

Hi mate.
Glad you like it, it's really given me more freedom to be away from the screen and still be updated on the boards. Must remember to take the phone with you though, unlike me this morning!

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[Dentalfloss]

cable
back into our 1.4250
will it support..??

 

[Dentalfloss]

Hi mate.
Glad you like it, it's really given me more freedom to be away from the screen and still be updated on the boards. Must remember to take the phone with you though, unlike me this morning!

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Do you get Tapas while you talk..??

:smart::smart::smart::smart:

 

[Dentalfloss]

Do you get Tapas while you talk..??

:smart::smart::smart::smart:

on that note...i am off for Pensioners lunch

 

[Moneylender]

do you get Tapas while you talk

:smart::smart::smart::smart:

No, they are barred.

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