Trading with point and figure

eurusd....looks vulnerable to a sell

2mhbo8y.png
 
Morning!

I held out a little longer, closed 13060. Also had two shorts from 7 am

Daily target hit and most of tomorrow's too!
 
Not sure how relevant Fridays 13160 is, normally would short this from 13100 but I will wait this one out.
 
- Digesting China Industrial Profits, awaiting US New Home Sales on very
subdued Cyber Monday schedule; politics continues to rule the roost
via way of Brexit negotiations, fragile Irish Govt, German coalition
talks, US tax reform and debt ceiling progression

- Week Ahead: Eurozone CPI tops schedule, busy run of US data includes
Personal Income/PCE and housing data; Manufacturing PMIs end the week

- Week Ahead central banks: Yellen, Powell and Dudley all scheduled in
busy week for Fed speak; Fed Beige Book and BoE Bank Stress test also
due

- Charts: various charts on China debt

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

It's Cyber Monday, and those that may be distracted by online purchases are not likely to be missing much in a schedule that has nothing more than US New Home Sales and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity survey to focus on, once the China Industrial Profits data overnight has been digested. Politics continues to offer the overarching them with tensions high between the UK and the Irish Republic in terms of advancing Brexit talks at the December EU summit, which also depends on the far from assured survival of the current Irish Govt. In Germany, there is some movement in terms of the possibility of forming a new 'grand coalition', but signals from both CDU/CSU and SPD have underlined that it will not be formed this year, with many differences on a potential policy agenda very visible. US New Home Sales are expected to drop 6.3% m/m to a still very respectable 625K SAAR pace, and a larger setback after the 18.9% m/m hurricane related surge in September is very possible, particularly as the latter surge was paced by a 26.0% m/m jump in the South. As ever a close eye will need to be kept on inventory levels, which remain very low by any historical standard.

UPDATED: The Week Ahead - Bullet point highlights: 27 November to 1 December 2017

- Month end beckons and typically thinner 'holiday' / year end trading conditions will inevitably prevail.

- Statistically the week ahead has much to digest from the US, though due to the Thanksgiving holiday, and the fact that the first Friday of the month is the 1st, the US Labour data will be published on the 8th December. Topping the US schedule will be Personal Income / PCE, Consumer Confidence, revised Q3 GDP, Auto Sales and various Home Sales and Prices measure.

- Elsewhere Eurozone CPI will garner plenty of attention along with the usual month end barrage of reports from Japan, Q3 GDP from Canada, India and Brazil, as well as Manufacturing PMIs from around the world.

- The 'Politics ueber Alles' meme of 2017 will remain the elephant in the room, with the US, UK, Ireland and Germany along with the ever complex world of the Middle East all vying for attention. The December 8 US debt ceiling deadline looms in the headlights, aside from the ongoing tax reform bills debates, and Trump will meet with Congressional leaders to discuss this tomorrow.

- Central Bank speakers are plentiful, with pride of place going to Yellen's testimony to Congress's Joint Economic Committee, while Powell has his Senate confirmation hearing as Fed Chair; Dudley will speak three times during the week, and the Fed also publishes its Beige Book. The BoE publishes its 2017 Stress Test Results and its latest Financial Stability Report on Tuesday.

- Elsewhere the Bank of Korea is expected to initiate lift-off on rates with a 25 bps hike to 1.50%, while rates are expected to be held in Angola, Ghana, Israel and Kazakhstan. The OECD also publishes its semi-annual Global Economic Outlook.

- China's bond and equity market woes in the wake of the clampdown on banks' interest rate risks and WMPs will continue to be the other major talking point.

- OPEC and Non-OPEC meet on Thursday with a 9-month extension to the current production cap agreement expected, though Russia does appear to be angling for some contingencies, with chatter suggesting that the cuts are linked to the supply-demand balance on the global oil market, or the level of oil inventories, or making a clear reference to the fact that the deal could be reviewed again early next year.

- Govt bond supply comes via way of the usual end of month US 2, 5 & 7-yr and Italian 5 & 10-yr sales. Bond futures contracts will roll over from Dec to March in the US and UK.

- Earnings reports are sparse, with Canada's banks (RBC, Scotiabank and T-D) topping the schedule; Russian energy giants Gazprom & Lukoil also feature along with Barnes & Noble, Britvic, Immofinanz and Kroger.


from Marc Ostwald
 
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