The Week Ahead - Bullet point highlights: 27 November to 1 December 2017
- Month end beckons and typically thinner 'holiday' / year end trading conditions will inevitably prevail.
- Statistically the week ahead has much to digest from the US, though due to the Thanksgiving holiday, and the fact that the first Friday of the month is the 1st, the US Labour data will be published on the 8th December. Topping the US schedule will be Personal Income / PCE, Consumer Confidence, revised Q3 GDP, Auto Sales and various Home Sales and Prices measure.
- Elsewhere Eurozone CPI will garner plenty of attention along with the usual month end barrage of reports from Japan, Q3 GDP from Canada, India and Brazil, as well as Manufacturing PMIs from around the world.
- The 'Politics ueber Alles' meme of 2017 will remain the elephant in the room, with the US, UK, Ireland and Germany along with the ever complex world of the Middle East all vying for attention.
- Central Bank speakers are plentiful, with pride of place going to Yellen's testimony to Congress's Joint Economic Committee; Dudley will speak three times during the week, and the Fed also publishes is Beige Book.
- Elsewhere the Bank of Korea is expected to initiate lift-off on rates with a 25 bps hike to 1.50%, while rates are expected to be held in Angola, Ghana, Israel and Kazakhstan. The OECD also publishes its semi-annual Global Economic Outlook.
- OPEC and Non-OPEC meet on Thursday with a 9-month extension to the current production cap agreement expected, though Russia does appear to be angling for some contingencies, with chatter suggesting that the cuts are linked to the supply-demand balance on the global oil market, or the level of oil inventories, or making a clear reference to the fact that the deal could be reviewed again early next year.
- Govt bond supply comes via way of the usual end of month US 2, 5 & 7-yr and Italian 5 & 10-yr sales. Bond futures contracts will roll over from Dec to March in the US and UK.
- Earnings reports are sparse, with Canada's banks (RBC, Scotiabank and T-D) topping the schedule; Russian energy giants Gazprom & Lukoil also feature along wiht Barnes & Noble, Britvic, Immofinanz and Kroger.
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Marc Ostwald
Global Strategist