Dentalfloss
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DOW
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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DAX
Dentalfloss
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CABLE
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FTSE
Dentalfloss
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EURUSD
new trend /up starting to establish.....that is what we want/get in at the bottom
about to break upwards and coming into prev supp
if supp holds,,,then 1.2100 area/vertical count
500 point move
could be bumpy..lol
new trend /up starting to establish.....that is what we want/get in at the bottom
about to break upwards and coming into prev supp
if supp holds,,,then 1.2100 area/vertical count
500 point move
could be bumpy..lol
Dentalfloss
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from 07/11...dollar has got a tad weak
a nice thrust column on eurusd since that date
tax reforms poss run into problems..hence weak stock index
possibly....
a nice thrust column on eurusd since that date
tax reforms poss run into problems..hence weak stock index
possibly....
Moneylender
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DAX, all change, what a difference a few days make!
Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks
Moneylender
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Morning all.
Dentalfloss
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scalps in and out
Dentalfloss
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13150 for a pump or dump
Moneylender
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Quiet start but looks like it wants to pump
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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- Quiet start to very busy week for key economic data and a raft of central
bank speakers; digesting UK political news and downbeat surveys; awaiting
ECB speak, Italy BTP auctions
- Week Ahead: can data wrest the market narrative away from politics, US
tax plan developments and central banks? Inflation readings and GDP data
in focus, along with UK and US Retail Sales
- Charts: CRB Index, Volatility indices, US Treasury curve & Bund spreads,
USD index, WTI & US Junk Bund ETF
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
What is a busy week (as outlined below) in data and events terms gets off to a very slow start with little that is likely to have much market impact, outside perhaps of the Turkish Current Account, given the mounting pressure on the Turkish Lira. UK PM May's speech at the annual Lord Mayor's Banquet will be closely watched, though if her "keynote" speeches over the past 6 months are anything to go by, then a so-called 'nothing burger' may be all that is on offer. The parliamentary debate on the EU law repeal and Brexit legislation will also be closely eyed, the more so given weekend newspaper reports suggesting that up to 40 Conservative MPs (short of the 48 that is required) are seeking to force a no confidence vote in PM May and by extension a leadership election. The overnight UK surveys hardly make for great reading, with the UK October Visa Consumer spending posting a sharp 0.9% m/m to leave the y/y rate at -2.0%, suggesting downside risks on Thursday's official Retail Sales, while the -0.8% m/m fall in Rightmove House Prices echoes last week's downbeat RICS House Price balance, though it should be emphasized that the move is also seasonal, underlined by the modest uptick in the y/y rate to 1.8% from October's 1.4%.
UPDATED: The Week Ahead preview : 13 to 17 November 2017 2017
- So the question for this week would appear to be whether a busy week for economic data in the US, UK, Eurozone aqnd China can wrest the market narrative away from politics and what will also be a bonanza week for central bank speakers?
- Statistically, US CPI and Retail Sales along with UK inflation and wages readings, Chinese monthly activity data and continental European & Japan Q3 GDP readings look to be the major highlights.
- US CPI perhaps be the most sensitive, as markets try to balance inflation data & their very low expectations against increasingly less than accommodative central bank speak, even from the ECB and BoJ (see also http://www.corelondon.tv/happening-risk-bond-markets/). The consensus look for US CPI to post a very modest 0.1% m/m rise in headline that would drag the y/y rate back to 2.0%, with the risk perhaps to the downside due to the fall in gasoline prices, while core CPI is seen at a 'military medium' 0.2% m/m for an unchanged 1.7% y/y.
- US Retail Sales are likely to see a drag from both Autos and Gasoline, a reactive correction to similarly hurricane induced bump seen in September with the consensus looking for a flat m/m headline, a 0.2% ex-Autos and 0.3% m/m ex-Autos & Gasoline - the risk of quite revisions, and a larger correction appear quite large, but the core 'control group measure' is seen reprising last month's healthy 0.4% m/m rise, and per se indicate a healthy pace of personal spending.
- UK CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% m/m, which would bump the y/y rate up to 3.1% and thus prompt a letter from BoE governor to Chancellor to explain the breach of the 2.0% plus/minus 1.0% CPI target range, though it would be a shade below the BoE's Inflation Report projection that CPI would peak in October at 3.2%, and thereafter start to decelerate. Food and to a lesser extent petrol prices are likely to be key drivers, though other non-discretionary items such as utilities may exercise further upward pressure, with airfares potentially a further upside wild card. Average Weekly Earnings are seen barely changed at 2.1% y/y headline and 2.2% y/y ex-Bonus, per se confirming that real wages will remain firmly in negative territory. Retail Sales will inevitably be a further focal point, with headline and ex-auto fuel measures seen up 0.1% m/m and flat respectively, though the very poor BRC, BDO and Visa retail surveys tend to suggest some downside risks.
- Q3 German GDP is expected to match (and thus confirm) Eurozone Q3 GDP at 0.6% q/q, which will come as no surprise, with the preliminary Q3 readings for Scandinavian, Central and Eastern European countries perhaps of more interest - consensus: Norway (mainland) 0.5% q/q, Romania 1.1% q/q, Czech Rep. 0.3% q/q, Hungary 0.7% q/q, Poland 0.8% q/q along with Netherlands 0.4% q/q & Portugal 0.7%. Japanese Q3 prov. GDP is seen at 0.4% q/q, with CapEx at 0.3% q/q seen offsetting weak Private Consumption at -0.4% q/q.
- China's monthly activity indices and monetary aggregates are also due, with Retail Sales seen edging up to 10.5% y/y vs. September's 10.3% y/y, (though the November data will be of greater interest given another bumper 'Singles Day' last Saturday). By contrast, both Industrial Production (f'cast 6.2% vs. Sept 6.6%) and Fixed Asset Investment (7.3% y.t.d. vs. Jan-Sep 7.5%) are seen losing momentum, with the National Day/Autumn Festival holiday week likely to have presented some headwinds, along with efforts to rein in output in overcapacity and / or polluting sectors.
- Central banks: Draghi, Yellen, Kuroda and Carney will all speak at this week's ECB conference, and there are numerous other Fed, ECB and BoE speakers on the schedule. All of which will likely attract plenty of attention, in so far as last week's somewhat sour tone in risk assets was in part predicated by less accommodative signals from ECB speakers and the BoJ October 'summary of opinions', along with the disappointment on US tax reform plan delays.
- Politics: Those US tax cut plan developments, UK and Middle East political tensions will continue to cast a long shadow, with a new round of NAFTA talks also scheduled. For the UK, the 'two week' ultimatum set by EU's Barnier on Brexit clarification points puts the very embattled UK Govt under even more pressure, and may prompt further ructions in the already deeply divided Conservative party. In Germany, coalition talks would appear to be reaching their final 'make or break' stage, and may yet fail and precipitate a fresh federal election.
- Earnings: Cisco Systems, Home Depot, Petrobras, Target, Tencent, Tyson Foods, Vodafone & Wal-Mart Stores will likely be among those grabbing the headlines. GE's "turnaround plan" which is seen involving a rare and sharp dividend cut will also be closely watched.
- Govt bond supply is very plentiful in Europe with auctions in UK, Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands and Spain, along with 10-yr US TIPS and 5 & 30-yr sales in Japan.
from Marc Ostwald
bank speakers; digesting UK political news and downbeat surveys; awaiting
ECB speak, Italy BTP auctions
- Week Ahead: can data wrest the market narrative away from politics, US
tax plan developments and central banks? Inflation readings and GDP data
in focus, along with UK and US Retail Sales
- Charts: CRB Index, Volatility indices, US Treasury curve & Bund spreads,
USD index, WTI & US Junk Bund ETF
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
What is a busy week (as outlined below) in data and events terms gets off to a very slow start with little that is likely to have much market impact, outside perhaps of the Turkish Current Account, given the mounting pressure on the Turkish Lira. UK PM May's speech at the annual Lord Mayor's Banquet will be closely watched, though if her "keynote" speeches over the past 6 months are anything to go by, then a so-called 'nothing burger' may be all that is on offer. The parliamentary debate on the EU law repeal and Brexit legislation will also be closely eyed, the more so given weekend newspaper reports suggesting that up to 40 Conservative MPs (short of the 48 that is required) are seeking to force a no confidence vote in PM May and by extension a leadership election. The overnight UK surveys hardly make for great reading, with the UK October Visa Consumer spending posting a sharp 0.9% m/m to leave the y/y rate at -2.0%, suggesting downside risks on Thursday's official Retail Sales, while the -0.8% m/m fall in Rightmove House Prices echoes last week's downbeat RICS House Price balance, though it should be emphasized that the move is also seasonal, underlined by the modest uptick in the y/y rate to 1.8% from October's 1.4%.
UPDATED: The Week Ahead preview : 13 to 17 November 2017 2017
- So the question for this week would appear to be whether a busy week for economic data in the US, UK, Eurozone aqnd China can wrest the market narrative away from politics and what will also be a bonanza week for central bank speakers?
- Statistically, US CPI and Retail Sales along with UK inflation and wages readings, Chinese monthly activity data and continental European & Japan Q3 GDP readings look to be the major highlights.
- US CPI perhaps be the most sensitive, as markets try to balance inflation data & their very low expectations against increasingly less than accommodative central bank speak, even from the ECB and BoJ (see also http://www.corelondon.tv/happening-risk-bond-markets/). The consensus look for US CPI to post a very modest 0.1% m/m rise in headline that would drag the y/y rate back to 2.0%, with the risk perhaps to the downside due to the fall in gasoline prices, while core CPI is seen at a 'military medium' 0.2% m/m for an unchanged 1.7% y/y.
- US Retail Sales are likely to see a drag from both Autos and Gasoline, a reactive correction to similarly hurricane induced bump seen in September with the consensus looking for a flat m/m headline, a 0.2% ex-Autos and 0.3% m/m ex-Autos & Gasoline - the risk of quite revisions, and a larger correction appear quite large, but the core 'control group measure' is seen reprising last month's healthy 0.4% m/m rise, and per se indicate a healthy pace of personal spending.
- UK CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% m/m, which would bump the y/y rate up to 3.1% and thus prompt a letter from BoE governor to Chancellor to explain the breach of the 2.0% plus/minus 1.0% CPI target range, though it would be a shade below the BoE's Inflation Report projection that CPI would peak in October at 3.2%, and thereafter start to decelerate. Food and to a lesser extent petrol prices are likely to be key drivers, though other non-discretionary items such as utilities may exercise further upward pressure, with airfares potentially a further upside wild card. Average Weekly Earnings are seen barely changed at 2.1% y/y headline and 2.2% y/y ex-Bonus, per se confirming that real wages will remain firmly in negative territory. Retail Sales will inevitably be a further focal point, with headline and ex-auto fuel measures seen up 0.1% m/m and flat respectively, though the very poor BRC, BDO and Visa retail surveys tend to suggest some downside risks.
- Q3 German GDP is expected to match (and thus confirm) Eurozone Q3 GDP at 0.6% q/q, which will come as no surprise, with the preliminary Q3 readings for Scandinavian, Central and Eastern European countries perhaps of more interest - consensus: Norway (mainland) 0.5% q/q, Romania 1.1% q/q, Czech Rep. 0.3% q/q, Hungary 0.7% q/q, Poland 0.8% q/q along with Netherlands 0.4% q/q & Portugal 0.7%. Japanese Q3 prov. GDP is seen at 0.4% q/q, with CapEx at 0.3% q/q seen offsetting weak Private Consumption at -0.4% q/q.
- China's monthly activity indices and monetary aggregates are also due, with Retail Sales seen edging up to 10.5% y/y vs. September's 10.3% y/y, (though the November data will be of greater interest given another bumper 'Singles Day' last Saturday). By contrast, both Industrial Production (f'cast 6.2% vs. Sept 6.6%) and Fixed Asset Investment (7.3% y.t.d. vs. Jan-Sep 7.5%) are seen losing momentum, with the National Day/Autumn Festival holiday week likely to have presented some headwinds, along with efforts to rein in output in overcapacity and / or polluting sectors.
- Central banks: Draghi, Yellen, Kuroda and Carney will all speak at this week's ECB conference, and there are numerous other Fed, ECB and BoE speakers on the schedule. All of which will likely attract plenty of attention, in so far as last week's somewhat sour tone in risk assets was in part predicated by less accommodative signals from ECB speakers and the BoJ October 'summary of opinions', along with the disappointment on US tax reform plan delays.
- Politics: Those US tax cut plan developments, UK and Middle East political tensions will continue to cast a long shadow, with a new round of NAFTA talks also scheduled. For the UK, the 'two week' ultimatum set by EU's Barnier on Brexit clarification points puts the very embattled UK Govt under even more pressure, and may prompt further ructions in the already deeply divided Conservative party. In Germany, coalition talks would appear to be reaching their final 'make or break' stage, and may yet fail and precipitate a fresh federal election.
- Earnings: Cisco Systems, Home Depot, Petrobras, Target, Tencent, Tyson Foods, Vodafone & Wal-Mart Stores will likely be among those grabbing the headlines. GE's "turnaround plan" which is seen involving a rare and sharp dividend cut will also be closely watched.
- Govt bond supply is very plentiful in Europe with auctions in UK, Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands and Spain, along with 10-yr US TIPS and 5 & 30-yr sales in Japan.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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a bit out on our rez
marked 13150...
13165......errrr
No Whammies for me today
marked 13150...
13165......errrr
No Whammies for me today
Moneylender
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- 5,693
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Moneylender
Legendary member
- Messages
- 5,693
- Likes
- 369
No idea mate. There are lots of hurdles, res points that we must overcome, that is if we do pump from here. If we do the 13150 is the first hurdle, lets get there first.
