Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

eurjpy has a pivot area
132.20-132.50 area

 

[Dentalfloss]

ditto eurusd 1.1650 area

 

[Dentalfloss]

oil 56.20-56.50 supp area

 

[Dentalfloss]

- Digesting very dovish RBA SOMP, awaiting UK Manufacturing, Construction &
Trade data, US Michigan Sentiment; UK politics and Brexit talks likely to
overshadow data; markets clearly unsettled by US tax reform plan divergence;
US Veterans Day may thin volumes

- UK Manufacturing Output: likely to post another solid gain, paced by
strength of Eurozone demand; Trade deficit to narrow from August outlier,
but remaining fundamentally poor

- High Yield bond sectors starting to send warning signal for risk assets

- Charts: iShares HY Bond ETF price, US HY Avg OAS (Option Adjusted Spread),
US HY Energy Avg OAS, EUR HY Avg OAS, USD & EUR HY average yield to worst

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

To end the week, the US bond market will likely be thinned by Veterans' Day, and the UK dominates the day's data schedule, with Norwegian CPI and US provisional Michigan Sentiment accompany the very dovish RBA's Statement on Monetary Policy (aka SOMP), the APEC Meeting, at which Trump and Putin may or may not meet on the sidelines. The substantial divergences in the US House and Senate Tax reform bill proposals are clearly weighing on sentiment in 'risk markets', though there may well be an element of investors taking 'money off the table' as they look to year end, and this along with developments in the Lebanon and Saudi Arabia, where there is talk that King Salman will abdicate in the next 48 hours, will continue to provide the overarching themes, along with whatever political drama can be drummed up in the UK to highlight that it is a near rudderless country, for which the latest EU/UK Brexit negotiations will potentially provide a focal point. In market terms, yesterday was the first time in an age that both credit and equities took a tumble, in reaction to a combination of delays to the US corporate tax plans, and indeed less dovish comments from ECB's Coeure, (the relatively hawkish Mersch speaks today)/ As we have warned previously the Achilles heel for risk markets (particularly equities) was/is always likely to be an adverse turn in credit markets, thus far the moves are relatively modest, but a look at the various charts attached suggests a very close eye needs to be kept on developments.


** U.K. - Industrial Production, Trade and Construction Output **
- The risks on today's data in terms of market reaction look to be asymmetric, by which we mean that "good" numbers will likely provide little in the way of a positive reaction in UK asset prices, while poor numbers would only add to the aforementioned political risk. As has been well documented, the UK Manufacturing sector has enjoyed something of a purple patch this year (and today's data is expected to confirm this), and as the widening non-European trade balance attests, there is no shadow of a doubt that this has been primarily due to the strong recovery in the Eurozone. Today's data are expected to confirm the manufacturing sector strength continues, and underline yet again that the UK continues to suffer from a large trade deficit. The latest Construction PMI and this month's BOE Agents' reports confirmed that while residential construction is picking up, despite the weakness in house sales and prices, commercial and infrastructure related construction remains very weak. Whether the highly erratic Construction Output data confirms this is another question, though forecasts of -0.9% m/m assume so.


from Marc Ostwald

 

[Dentalfloss]

- High Yield bond sectors starting to send warning signal for risk assets

in Marc Ostwald"s email today...oh dear.....lol

 

[cantagril]

Morning all,

EG looking fragile to me. Might just close out and finish for the week.

whamming and bamming today

Is this naked selfie time?

 

[Dentalfloss]

our 13211 workin a treat

 

[Dentalfloss]

Morning all,

EG looking fragile to me. Might just close out and finish for the week.




Is this naked selfie time?

nope...visit to the Grantley Arms in store

 

[Dentalfloss]

dax
a decent 50 pointer from 13211 dump
whammo

 

[Dentalfloss]

dax into the open

13167....and bounce
excellent

 

[Dentalfloss]

a closer look

our 13211 marked premarket

 

[Dentalfloss]

symbol for Barclays high yield etf is JNK

 

[Dentalfloss]

symbol for Barclays high yield etf is JNK

there is another HYG

 

[Dentalfloss]

bitcoin

 

[Dentalfloss]

bitcoin
poss top forming
p/b to start with

note how large the box size is 1.1% for just approx 2 months of data...
that is a real whammo...

 

[Moneylender]

Nice dead cat bounce on DAX

 

[Moneylender]

Off to Ikea now, you lot have 10 mins to buy shares in the store before we get there!!!

 

[inzimam]

wide view of Dax 20x3 1 hour data

 

[Dentalfloss]

dax
a decent 50 pointer from 13211 dump
whammo

and quite a few more

 

[Dentalfloss]

Off to Ikea now, you lot have 10 mins to buy shares in the store before we get there!!!

There must be something in that carrot cake that i am missing...I try to avoid Ikea...it usually means that i have to build something