Dentalfloss
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Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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C
cantagril
Moneylender
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Nope! Still not ready to capitulate.
Dentalfloss
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Decided to ditch this position for -11 x 3l
excellent...glad yu hedged it
Dentalfloss
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but....ya should have bailed out on the first sell signal....despite what your mindset was
take the signals
take the signals
Dentalfloss
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bears will only get a look in when its overextended
Dentalfloss
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- Manufacturing PMIs kick off new month, but focus likely to be on
US, with FOMC statement, FOMC Chair speculation, along with ADP Employment,
Auto Sales & Construction spending; Facebook heads another busy day for
earnings; EIA oil inventories
- UK Manufacturing PMI: expected to post another solid reading, but not
really material in BoE rate decision terms
- US Manufacturing ISM: seen posting modest setback after Sept jump,
Chicago PMI strength imparts upside risk
- US ADP Employment: seen reverting to recent trend rate, no read across
to Payrolls, given prior sharp divergence
- US Auto Sales: seen dropping after September post hurricane surge, some
residual replacement related demand to maintain sales above earlier
trend, focus on truck sales and levels of incentives
- US FOMC: no change, statement likely to hint at Dec rate hike; markets
more interested in Chair decision
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A new month begins with the usual barrage of Manufacturing PMIs, excepting the Eurozone (due to the All Saints Day holiday in some countries / regions), but pride of place on the day's schedule inevitably belongs to the FOMC meeting. Outside of the PMIs, US Auto Sales and Construction Spending accompany the ADP Employment estimate, while the earnings run will likely see results from Allergan, Bunge, CenturyLink, Facebook, Kraft Heinz, MetLife, Molson Coors and Tesla amongst others. In European PMI terms the focus is therefore on the UK, where a very solid but unchanged 55.9 is anticipated, which would underline that manufacturing continues to benefit from the strength of the recovery in the Eurozone, but will have little or no bearing on tomorrow's main event, the Bank of England's much anticipated rate decision.
** U.S.A. - Oct ADP Employment, Manufacturing ISM & Auto Sales **
- Today's ADP Employment may well be largely ignored, in so far as it was totally out of line (at +135K) with the official Payrolls reading last month (-33K), and is seen picking back up to around its recent trend rate at 200K, in contrast to Payrolls that are forecast to jump up to 310K. Given the hefty distortions to both from the hurricanes, an outlier is certainly quite a strong possibility. Following on from a blockbuster Chicago PMI, that confounded forecasts of a drop to 60.0 from September's 65.2, with a further gain to 66.2, today's Manufacturing ISM is forecast to dip to a still very robust 59.5 from September's 60.8, primarily due to an anticipated dip in Prices Paid to 67.8 from a cyclical high of 71.5. Given the strength seen in regional surveys, the risks would appear to be to the upside. Hurricane effects have been all too evident in Auto Sales over the past two months with last month's surge to 18.47 Mln following on from August's annual low of 16.03 Mln. Replacement demand should still serve to boost this month's reading relative to the average 16.65 Mln SAAR pace seen in the months to July, with the consensus looking for a 17.50 Mln pace, which would also fit with the anecdotal evidence from industry exports, JD Power and LMC Automotive. Of particular note in the detail will be whether the strength seen in truck sales persists, which has helped to offset weakness in passenger car sales, as well as the extent to which sales continue to be propped up by aggressive incentives and discounts, which inevitably has served to depress margins.
** U.S.A. - FOMC meeting **
- The FOMC is seen holding its policy rate at 1.0-1.25% and sticking to its balance sheet reduction plans, with markets set to focus on how it pitches its view on the growth, unemployment and inflation outlooks, and above all on the likelihood that it will signal a further rate hike will be likely 'soon', (for reference prior Sept statement here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20170920a.htm ). The solid run of economic data, and an upbeat Beige Book suggest an upbeat assessment of the economy, with the slightly sluggish Q3 GDP Final Domestic Sales reading more than likely dismissable as having been a hurricane effect. For markets, the refinements of the statement may prove to be little more than a distraction from the ostensibly bigger price of who will take the reins at the Fed, with current FOMC member and governor Powell still assumed to be the frontrunner, though we expect Trump to nominate both Powell and Taylor to the Chair and Vice Chair positions, the only question is who get which position.
from Marc Ostwald
US, with FOMC statement, FOMC Chair speculation, along with ADP Employment,
Auto Sales & Construction spending; Facebook heads another busy day for
earnings; EIA oil inventories
- UK Manufacturing PMI: expected to post another solid reading, but not
really material in BoE rate decision terms
- US Manufacturing ISM: seen posting modest setback after Sept jump,
Chicago PMI strength imparts upside risk
- US ADP Employment: seen reverting to recent trend rate, no read across
to Payrolls, given prior sharp divergence
- US Auto Sales: seen dropping after September post hurricane surge, some
residual replacement related demand to maintain sales above earlier
trend, focus on truck sales and levels of incentives
- US FOMC: no change, statement likely to hint at Dec rate hike; markets
more interested in Chair decision
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A new month begins with the usual barrage of Manufacturing PMIs, excepting the Eurozone (due to the All Saints Day holiday in some countries / regions), but pride of place on the day's schedule inevitably belongs to the FOMC meeting. Outside of the PMIs, US Auto Sales and Construction Spending accompany the ADP Employment estimate, while the earnings run will likely see results from Allergan, Bunge, CenturyLink, Facebook, Kraft Heinz, MetLife, Molson Coors and Tesla amongst others. In European PMI terms the focus is therefore on the UK, where a very solid but unchanged 55.9 is anticipated, which would underline that manufacturing continues to benefit from the strength of the recovery in the Eurozone, but will have little or no bearing on tomorrow's main event, the Bank of England's much anticipated rate decision.
** U.S.A. - Oct ADP Employment, Manufacturing ISM & Auto Sales **
- Today's ADP Employment may well be largely ignored, in so far as it was totally out of line (at +135K) with the official Payrolls reading last month (-33K), and is seen picking back up to around its recent trend rate at 200K, in contrast to Payrolls that are forecast to jump up to 310K. Given the hefty distortions to both from the hurricanes, an outlier is certainly quite a strong possibility. Following on from a blockbuster Chicago PMI, that confounded forecasts of a drop to 60.0 from September's 65.2, with a further gain to 66.2, today's Manufacturing ISM is forecast to dip to a still very robust 59.5 from September's 60.8, primarily due to an anticipated dip in Prices Paid to 67.8 from a cyclical high of 71.5. Given the strength seen in regional surveys, the risks would appear to be to the upside. Hurricane effects have been all too evident in Auto Sales over the past two months with last month's surge to 18.47 Mln following on from August's annual low of 16.03 Mln. Replacement demand should still serve to boost this month's reading relative to the average 16.65 Mln SAAR pace seen in the months to July, with the consensus looking for a 17.50 Mln pace, which would also fit with the anecdotal evidence from industry exports, JD Power and LMC Automotive. Of particular note in the detail will be whether the strength seen in truck sales persists, which has helped to offset weakness in passenger car sales, as well as the extent to which sales continue to be propped up by aggressive incentives and discounts, which inevitably has served to depress margins.
** U.S.A. - FOMC meeting **
- The FOMC is seen holding its policy rate at 1.0-1.25% and sticking to its balance sheet reduction plans, with markets set to focus on how it pitches its view on the growth, unemployment and inflation outlooks, and above all on the likelihood that it will signal a further rate hike will be likely 'soon', (for reference prior Sept statement here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20170920a.htm ). The solid run of economic data, and an upbeat Beige Book suggest an upbeat assessment of the economy, with the slightly sluggish Q3 GDP Final Domestic Sales reading more than likely dismissable as having been a hurricane effect. For markets, the refinements of the statement may prove to be little more than a distraction from the ostensibly bigger price of who will take the reins at the Fed, with current FOMC member and governor Powell still assumed to be the frontrunner, though we expect Trump to nominate both Powell and Taylor to the Chair and Vice Chair positions, the only question is who get which position.
from Marc Ostwald
C
cantagril
Of course! and I remember thinking just that....maybe even posting it... but here I am, again
I am currently the proud owner of 1l long EG at .8750 so we'll see how that turns out.
Moneylender
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No sign of any bears yet!
Dentalfloss
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Moneylender
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I thought it was overbought @ 12000 so WDIK?
Dentalfloss
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consecutive signals.....against your trade
means yu got it wrong
close it immediately
means yu got it wrong
close it immediately
Dentalfloss
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Canta...yu got a few of those...consecutive sell signals on eurgbp...the last week
Inzi....yu got plenty of consecutive buy signals on dax...the last few weeks
please ....please.please....do not ignore that
if yu got it wrong....walk...then reassess the chart
Dentalfloss
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consecutive sell signals...means bulls have to work Twice as hard to turn it around.....it is a truly great signal...consecutive
vice versa for buy
it is the best...makes oscillator divergence look second rate
vice versa for buy
it is the best...makes oscillator divergence look second rate
you're absolutely right. i screwed up big time
Dentalfloss
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forget about it...as it will harm your psycho
Dentalfloss
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No sign of any bears yet!
you have to believe what Moneylender posts.....there are no bears as yet
