C
cantagril
The Kraken wakes
Am ruthlessly exploiting your chart from yesterday so keep 'em coming:whistling
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
The Kraken wakes
Am ruthlessly exploiting your chart from yesterday so keep 'em coming:whistling
Dentalfloss
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- Busy day for data and central banks, focus on German Ifo, UK Q3 GDP,
US Durable Goods and New Home Sales; Bank of Canada and Brazil rate
decisions, further deluge of corporate earnings; German 10 yr and
US 5-yr sales
- UK GDP: another modest growth expected, Manufacturing to provide an
offset to weak consumer spending, expected Services rebound in August
key to bounce
- US Durable Goods: solid aircraft orders to again boost headline, but
core measures also sustaining firm trend for the quarter
- Bank of Canada likely to err to the dovish side, Brazil's COPOM set
to cut rates at slower paces, likely to signal near to trough in rates
- Charts: US 10 & 30yr Treasury yields, JPM EMBI spread
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A much busier day awaits in both statistical and events terms, as the US Q3 earnings season band wagon rolls on. In data terms, there are the weaker than expected Australian Q3 CPI to digest (thus keeping the RBA even more firmly in the neutral rate outlook camp). ahead of the advance reading on UK Q3 GDP, the German Ifo survey (seen strong and little changed), Italian Industrial Orders, while the US has Durable Goods Orders, FHFA House Prices and New Home Sales. All market eyes may be on the much anticipated ECB meeting tomorrow, but the focus today will be on the Bank of Canada and Brazil's COPOM. Ahead of those, there will be also some interest in new South Africa Finance Minister Gigaba's first Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS). A raft of earnings in Europe and the US has GSK, Lloyds Bank, Heineken and Lufthansa along with Boeing, Coca Cola and Visa among the headliners. Govt bond supply sees Germany sell a modest EUR 3.0 Bln of its current 10-yr, and the US offer a new 5-yr, the latter follows a weak cover at the 2-yr sale, and a clear break for the 30 yr yield above its 200D Moving Average, which has provided stiff resistance in recent week (see attached charts).
** U.K. - Q3 GDP **
- The advance, output based estimate of UK Q3 GDP is seen posting an unchanged 0.3% q/q, with the y/y rate expected to dip to 1.4% from 1.5%, and only a marginal 0.03 ppt contribution from Retail spending, with Manufacturing and Govt spending again likely to provide some offset. Critical to the outcome will as ever be the Index of Services (ca 80% of UK GDP), where a rebound of 0.3% m/m for August (after a surprise -0.2% m/m in July), which would imply quarterly pace for the 3 months to August dip to just 0.4%; it is this element which may well weigh most heavily in the renewed game of "push me, pull you on rates" that is once again playing out on the BoE's MPC, with Cunliffe's comments on Monday putting him in the 'no November hike' camp. On the other hand, the comment from Chancellor Hammond yesterday that the UK economy is 'approaching full capacity', which sounds like a green light for a rate hike.
** U.S.A. - September Durable Goods, New Home Sales **
- For all that some regions of the US were clearly impacted by the hurricanes, the bulk of manufacturing surveys all pointed to at an best marginal impact on order flows, even if today's Shipments data (important in terms of Friday's advance Q3 GDP) may see some impact from disruptions. Headline orders are seen getting a modest boost from Aircraft Orders, which are seen up 1.0% m/m after August's 2.0% (with some upside risks given Sept Boeing Orders jumped to 72 from August's 33), while the ex-Transport measure sub-index is seen posting another solid 0.5% m/m rise. Meanwhile the CapEx proxy that is Non-defence Capital Goods ex-Aircraft is forecast to slow to 0.3% m/m, but this follows two stellar readings of 1.1% and 1.3% m/m in the first two months of the quarter. The Shipments index is seen dipping -0.1% m/m, but again this follows rises of 1.1% and 1.0%, which in turn imply a solid contribution from Machinery CapEx to Q3 GDP. As for New Home Sales, the risks look to be skewed to the downside of another modest fall of 1.0% m/m to a 555K SAAR pace, given the likely weakness in the southern region due to the hurricanes, even though the stock of new homes for sale is considerably better at 6.1 months of supply (a seven year high) than for existing homes, where inventories languish near their lows.
** Canada / Brazil - Monetary policy meetings **
- The Bank of Canada is seen keeping rates steady at 0.75%, and may well push back on market expectations that rates will at the latest rise another 25 bps in January, particularly after Friday's soft Retail Sales, and the still very subdued CPI profile. By contrast Brazil's COPOM is expected to slow the pace of its rate cuts modestly, with a 75 bps cut to 7.5% expected (vs the record low of 7.25%), and will probably signal that it is close to a trough in the current cycle, after a year of rate cuts from a peak of 14.25%, with the consensus looking for a base at 7.0% by December.
from Marc Ostwald
US Durable Goods and New Home Sales; Bank of Canada and Brazil rate
decisions, further deluge of corporate earnings; German 10 yr and
US 5-yr sales
- UK GDP: another modest growth expected, Manufacturing to provide an
offset to weak consumer spending, expected Services rebound in August
key to bounce
- US Durable Goods: solid aircraft orders to again boost headline, but
core measures also sustaining firm trend for the quarter
- Bank of Canada likely to err to the dovish side, Brazil's COPOM set
to cut rates at slower paces, likely to signal near to trough in rates
- Charts: US 10 & 30yr Treasury yields, JPM EMBI spread
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A much busier day awaits in both statistical and events terms, as the US Q3 earnings season band wagon rolls on. In data terms, there are the weaker than expected Australian Q3 CPI to digest (thus keeping the RBA even more firmly in the neutral rate outlook camp). ahead of the advance reading on UK Q3 GDP, the German Ifo survey (seen strong and little changed), Italian Industrial Orders, while the US has Durable Goods Orders, FHFA House Prices and New Home Sales. All market eyes may be on the much anticipated ECB meeting tomorrow, but the focus today will be on the Bank of Canada and Brazil's COPOM. Ahead of those, there will be also some interest in new South Africa Finance Minister Gigaba's first Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS). A raft of earnings in Europe and the US has GSK, Lloyds Bank, Heineken and Lufthansa along with Boeing, Coca Cola and Visa among the headliners. Govt bond supply sees Germany sell a modest EUR 3.0 Bln of its current 10-yr, and the US offer a new 5-yr, the latter follows a weak cover at the 2-yr sale, and a clear break for the 30 yr yield above its 200D Moving Average, which has provided stiff resistance in recent week (see attached charts).
** U.K. - Q3 GDP **
- The advance, output based estimate of UK Q3 GDP is seen posting an unchanged 0.3% q/q, with the y/y rate expected to dip to 1.4% from 1.5%, and only a marginal 0.03 ppt contribution from Retail spending, with Manufacturing and Govt spending again likely to provide some offset. Critical to the outcome will as ever be the Index of Services (ca 80% of UK GDP), where a rebound of 0.3% m/m for August (after a surprise -0.2% m/m in July), which would imply quarterly pace for the 3 months to August dip to just 0.4%; it is this element which may well weigh most heavily in the renewed game of "push me, pull you on rates" that is once again playing out on the BoE's MPC, with Cunliffe's comments on Monday putting him in the 'no November hike' camp. On the other hand, the comment from Chancellor Hammond yesterday that the UK economy is 'approaching full capacity', which sounds like a green light for a rate hike.
** U.S.A. - September Durable Goods, New Home Sales **
- For all that some regions of the US were clearly impacted by the hurricanes, the bulk of manufacturing surveys all pointed to at an best marginal impact on order flows, even if today's Shipments data (important in terms of Friday's advance Q3 GDP) may see some impact from disruptions. Headline orders are seen getting a modest boost from Aircraft Orders, which are seen up 1.0% m/m after August's 2.0% (with some upside risks given Sept Boeing Orders jumped to 72 from August's 33), while the ex-Transport measure sub-index is seen posting another solid 0.5% m/m rise. Meanwhile the CapEx proxy that is Non-defence Capital Goods ex-Aircraft is forecast to slow to 0.3% m/m, but this follows two stellar readings of 1.1% and 1.3% m/m in the first two months of the quarter. The Shipments index is seen dipping -0.1% m/m, but again this follows rises of 1.1% and 1.0%, which in turn imply a solid contribution from Machinery CapEx to Q3 GDP. As for New Home Sales, the risks look to be skewed to the downside of another modest fall of 1.0% m/m to a 555K SAAR pace, given the likely weakness in the southern region due to the hurricanes, even though the stock of new homes for sale is considerably better at 6.1 months of supply (a seven year high) than for existing homes, where inventories languish near their lows.
** Canada / Brazil - Monetary policy meetings **
- The Bank of Canada is seen keeping rates steady at 0.75%, and may well push back on market expectations that rates will at the latest rise another 25 bps in January, particularly after Friday's soft Retail Sales, and the still very subdued CPI profile. By contrast Brazil's COPOM is expected to slow the pace of its rate cuts modestly, with a 75 bps cut to 7.5% expected (vs the record low of 7.25%), and will probably signal that it is close to a trough in the current cycle, after a year of rate cuts from a peak of 14.25%, with the consensus looking for a base at 7.0% by December.
from Marc Ostwald
C
cantagril
Dentalfloss
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Moneylender
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Great dump out of 13040 area, just closed it now at 13002!
C
cantagril
Didn't get that but I'm long again at 13000
Moneylender
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And me ;-)
C
cantagril
Still holding my long EG position with my interim target of .8980.
Looking at the PA so far I'm thinking that it's looking a bit sticky so I might take my half off at 70 instead. Poss p/b toward .8920 (again) before a decent spike up - might add some more if we get down there.
Looking at the PA so far I'm thinking that it's looking a bit sticky so I might take my half off at 70 instead. Poss p/b toward .8920 (again) before a decent spike up - might add some more if we get down there.
Dentalfloss
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C
cantagril
C
cantagril
Just got stopped on a couple of lots at .8940 which has brought my average entry down a tad and paid for a jar of something cheap at the Dog and Leper. It's not as flash as the Grantley but they change the sawdust every day!
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12990 is trend level there now
Moneylender
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12985 is the true support!
Moneylender
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12984.2 was the low, as 007 says, must try harder!!!:cheesy::cheesy:
C
cantagril
Dentalfloss
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0.8 out....not good enough
needs improvement....lol
definitely Shoddy
I will have to refund our subscribers
C
cantagril
Added 1L at .8922
Dentalfloss
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To our Subscribers
We cannot refund the Stella Artois right now....Its all gone
Its Oktoberfest !
Maybe next month
We cannot refund the Stella Artois right now....Its all gone
Its Oktoberfest !
Maybe next month
Moneylender
Legendary member
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Moneylender
Legendary member
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- 369
Stops tightened on DAX
