Dentalfloss
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got some of the bounce
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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got some of the bounce
Dentalfloss
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23220 pump...got a few more
Dentalfloss
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even more now
stops tight
Moneylender
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Took the bounce @ 12955 and exited @ 12975 so that on top of the drop makes it a very nice Friday.
Dentalfloss
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The Week Ahead - highlights and preview: 23 to 27 October 2017
- Outside of advance UK and US Q3 GDP readings, the week's data looks likely to be playing second fiddle to something of a blockbuster week for central banks, the ECB being primus inter pares, and the deluge of corporate earnings. Politics will as ever cast a long shadow, via way of digesting the run of weekend elections and referenda, Brexit negotiations, US budget and tax reforms, and the Catalonia stand-off, along with the plethora of geo-political tensions.
- The consensus looks for the ECB to announce that it will halve its total QE pace to EUR 30 Bln per month, and extend it for 9 months, as of January 2018. The details will however be significant, particularly whether it lowers the proportion of govt bond purchases the total QE volume, to circumvent prospective 'scarcity' problems, with some speculation that it might also lengthen the maturity spectrum, though the area beyond 30 years in the Eurozone is anything but uniform in country terms. The council may also offer some hints on how it might extend, and probably restructure (at least in maturity terms) its LTRO programme, given that September 2018 sees EUR 432 Bln expiring, though there are unlikely to be any real details. Draghi will inevitably also ram home the message that even once the QE programme (which they will reserve the right to increase and / or restart) ends, there will be a considerable period before a rate hike is 'on the table'. The increasing dispute between Italy and the ECB over legacy bad loans / NPL accounting will also likely be a topic at the press conference.
The ECB's poodle, Sweden's Riksbank, also meets next week and unsurprisingly is expected to keep policy on hold, emphasizing that it will not move before the ECB, and underline its fear of any material SEK appreciation, above all vs. the EUR. Norway's Norges Bank is also seen on hold at 0.50%, and with core (underlying) CPI well contained at 1.0% y/y, and House Prices starting to drift modestly lower, it will also stick to a rate trajectory that currently sees rates rising gently from the end of Q2 2018.
Across the pond, the Bank of Canada is also seen keeping rates steady at 0.75%, and may well push back on market expectations that rates will at the latest rise again in January, particularly after Friday's soft Retail Sales, and still very subdued CPI.
Turkey's TCMB may still be under a lot of political pressure to cut rates, but with the TRY under pressure and CPI sailing higher, it will likely hold rates once again. By contrast, Russia's Bank Rossi still has plenty of room to cut rates with the RUB firm, oil prices steady and CPI remaining well below its forecast of 4.0%, and a further 25 bps rate cut to 8.25% is expected, with perhaps some risk of a further 50 bps cut. Brazil's BCB is expected to slow the pace of its rate cuts modestly, with a 75 bps cut to 7.5% expected, and will probably signal that it is close to pausing the current cycle, after a year of rate cuts from a peak of 14.25%. HUngary's MNB and Colombia's BanColombia are seen on hold.
- Statistics have become something of a punchbag for financial markets, in so far as many prove to be little more than roadkill under the wheels of politics and central bank expectations, prompting kneejerk moves that are quickly reversed. Advance US Q3 GDP is seen slowing to 2.6% SAAR, with strength in Business Investment seen offsetting a slowdown in Personal Consumption to 2.1% from Q2's 3.3%, with a pick up in the GDP deflator to 1.8% from 1.0% also removing some of the Q2 shine, and some impact from the hurricanes also anticipated, which likely heightens the risk of an outlier. UK Q3 GDP is seen unchanged at 0.3% q/q, with the y/y expected to dip to 1.4% from 1.5%, and only a marginal 0.03 ppt contribution from Retail spending, with Govt spending again likely to provide some offset. Otherwise Australian Q3 CPI is projected to post a solid bounce to 0.8% in q/q terms, but only be a shade higher at 2.0% y/y at the headline and core level, giving the RBA plenty ammunition to continue to steer a neutral policy path. Japanese core CPI measures are forecast to be unchanged at 0.5% y/y. Otherwise the US sees Durable Goods Orders, and an array of housing data, flash PMIs are due in Japan, Eurozone and US, with Germany's Ifo Business Climate leading the rush of national business and confidence surveys in the UK and EU.
My thoughts on "U.S Yield Curve indicates a recession, but it this right?"
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
- Outside of advance UK and US Q3 GDP readings, the week's data looks likely to be playing second fiddle to something of a blockbuster week for central banks, the ECB being primus inter pares, and the deluge of corporate earnings. Politics will as ever cast a long shadow, via way of digesting the run of weekend elections and referenda, Brexit negotiations, US budget and tax reforms, and the Catalonia stand-off, along with the plethora of geo-political tensions.
- The consensus looks for the ECB to announce that it will halve its total QE pace to EUR 30 Bln per month, and extend it for 9 months, as of January 2018. The details will however be significant, particularly whether it lowers the proportion of govt bond purchases the total QE volume, to circumvent prospective 'scarcity' problems, with some speculation that it might also lengthen the maturity spectrum, though the area beyond 30 years in the Eurozone is anything but uniform in country terms. The council may also offer some hints on how it might extend, and probably restructure (at least in maturity terms) its LTRO programme, given that September 2018 sees EUR 432 Bln expiring, though there are unlikely to be any real details. Draghi will inevitably also ram home the message that even once the QE programme (which they will reserve the right to increase and / or restart) ends, there will be a considerable period before a rate hike is 'on the table'. The increasing dispute between Italy and the ECB over legacy bad loans / NPL accounting will also likely be a topic at the press conference.
The ECB's poodle, Sweden's Riksbank, also meets next week and unsurprisingly is expected to keep policy on hold, emphasizing that it will not move before the ECB, and underline its fear of any material SEK appreciation, above all vs. the EUR. Norway's Norges Bank is also seen on hold at 0.50%, and with core (underlying) CPI well contained at 1.0% y/y, and House Prices starting to drift modestly lower, it will also stick to a rate trajectory that currently sees rates rising gently from the end of Q2 2018.
Across the pond, the Bank of Canada is also seen keeping rates steady at 0.75%, and may well push back on market expectations that rates will at the latest rise again in January, particularly after Friday's soft Retail Sales, and still very subdued CPI.
Turkey's TCMB may still be under a lot of political pressure to cut rates, but with the TRY under pressure and CPI sailing higher, it will likely hold rates once again. By contrast, Russia's Bank Rossi still has plenty of room to cut rates with the RUB firm, oil prices steady and CPI remaining well below its forecast of 4.0%, and a further 25 bps rate cut to 8.25% is expected, with perhaps some risk of a further 50 bps cut. Brazil's BCB is expected to slow the pace of its rate cuts modestly, with a 75 bps cut to 7.5% expected, and will probably signal that it is close to pausing the current cycle, after a year of rate cuts from a peak of 14.25%. HUngary's MNB and Colombia's BanColombia are seen on hold.
- Statistics have become something of a punchbag for financial markets, in so far as many prove to be little more than roadkill under the wheels of politics and central bank expectations, prompting kneejerk moves that are quickly reversed. Advance US Q3 GDP is seen slowing to 2.6% SAAR, with strength in Business Investment seen offsetting a slowdown in Personal Consumption to 2.1% from Q2's 3.3%, with a pick up in the GDP deflator to 1.8% from 1.0% also removing some of the Q2 shine, and some impact from the hurricanes also anticipated, which likely heightens the risk of an outlier. UK Q3 GDP is seen unchanged at 0.3% q/q, with the y/y expected to dip to 1.4% from 1.5%, and only a marginal 0.03 ppt contribution from Retail spending, with Govt spending again likely to provide some offset. Otherwise Australian Q3 CPI is projected to post a solid bounce to 0.8% in q/q terms, but only be a shade higher at 2.0% y/y at the headline and core level, giving the RBA plenty ammunition to continue to steer a neutral policy path. Japanese core CPI measures are forecast to be unchanged at 0.5% y/y. Otherwise the US sees Durable Goods Orders, and an array of housing data, flash PMIs are due in Japan, Eurozone and US, with Germany's Ifo Business Climate leading the rush of national business and confidence surveys in the UK and EU.
My thoughts on "U.S Yield Curve indicates a recession, but it this right?"
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
Moneylender
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43 non member waching wow
brewski1984
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Dow still going up ridiculous
Moneylender
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Couple bottles of red being devoured so I am finished for the day, managed to write up a module assignment and trade this week, although let a few pips go past me.
good week end all
good week end all
brewski1984
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brewski1984
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And a brave man steps up lol
Holding over weekend?
Holding over weekend?
Sonicscooter
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Currently have an open Dow position.....yes it's knee deep in water, and it's had my botty all week, but seems like fun...
Yes most likely, a small position so very wide stop and long target but if i get 50 points sell of today :|:clap:
Moneylender
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This is how DAX ended up Friday close.
Last edited:
Moneylender
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No sign of DOW turning!!
Moneylender
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51 years ago today this happened. I was 18 and tried to go up and help dig those kids out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOVVF25J04Q&feature=youtu.be
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOVVF25J04Q&feature=youtu.be
Thank you moneylender. RIP.
I made friends with a few Welsh ex- miners in the British Army. Tough but also gentle and very kind hearted. Got invited back to a few sessions in the valleys! Fantastic sense of community.
