- US dominates the schedule with Fed speak, including Yellen and "new boy"
Bostic, accompanying Consumer Confidence, Regional Fed surveys and New
Home Sales; BBA Mortgage Approvals, ECB speak and API oil inventories
- US Consumer Confidence: higher gasoline prices and weaker equities seen
weighing on confidence, though overall still very robust
- US Richmond Fed surveys: region heavily affected by Hurricane Irma
- US New Home Sales: modest rebound seen after sharp July fall, upside risks
- Charts: US 'labour differential'; USD/INR, Brent, LME Aluminium, Copper,
Nickel and Zinc
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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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Today's schedule is dominated by the US, with Fed speak including Yellen speaking at the NABE conference and a maiden speech from new Atlanta Fed President Bostic, along with Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Richmond and Philly Fed surveys; while in Europe there is the French Business Confidence survey and UK BBA Mortgage Approvals to accompany the day's ECB speak. Govt bond supply comes via way of Italian CTZ and BTPei auctions, a German 2-yr sale and the first leg of this week's US supply in the shape of $26 Bln of 2-yr Treasuries. With oil prices, above all Brent (see chart), soaring to more than two year highs on the back of rising tensions due to the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum (results of which are due on Thursday), today's API crude inventories may only garner a market response if they fit with market direction at the point of release. The consensus looks for a 2.3 Mln build after a larger than expected 4.6 Mln build in the prior week, while gasoline stocks are seen dropping 1.0 Mln and Distillates 2.5 Mln lower. A closer eye needs to be kept on EM currencies as the USD starts to show some tentative signs of a revival. Perhaps most notable among those are the Indian Rupee and Indonesian Rupiah, which have benefitted from strong inflows into local govt bond markets from yield hunting carry traders and investors. The INR has seen quite a sharp reversal, as doubts emerge about India's growth outlook, and market chatter today suggests that the RBI has been intervening to stem the INR's downturn.
** U.S.A. - Sep Consumer Confidence, Aug New Home Sales **
- The consensus assumes that last month's unexpected jump to 122.9 (close to March's cyclical high of 123.9) will be reversed, though at 120.0 this would remain at very robust levels by any historical standard. The hurricane related jump in gasoline prices, and the setback in equities likely to have been a drag, despite ongoing strength in labour demand. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Services and the Philly Fed Non-manufacturing surveys will be closely watched for any signs of a hurricane related drop in sentiment, above all in the Richmond Fed region, which was hit hard by Hurricane Irma. New Home Sales are an inherently very volatile series, as was amply demonstrated by the 9.1% m/m drop to 571K in July, which is expected to see a modest 2.5% m/m reversal to 585K, though the risks look to be to the upside, given underlying strength of demand, this may come either via a sharper rebound or frequently sharp revisions.
from Marc Ostwald