Dentalfloss
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ftse in a swing trade buy area...if supp holds
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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dow 21800 pump or dump
there now
there now
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Need 12100 as support then 12135
Dentalfloss
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- Digesting Australia GDP, Japan wages and German Orders, awaiting US
Non-manufacturing ISM and Fed's Beige Book; politics domestic and
international still front and central; Canada, Poland & Brazil rate
decisions
- Japan wages drop implies Q2 private consumption pick-up may not prove
to be sustainable
- US Non-manufacturing ISM: Markit Services PMI and Philly Fed Non-
manufacturing surveys predicate expected rebound from surprise July drop
- Fed Beige Book: focus on wages along with auto, housing and agricultural
sectors
- Bank of Canada: expected to hold rates, but offer strong hint about
October hike
- Charts: WTI vs. RBOB Gasoline, WTI vs Brent, CNY/USD vs CNY TWI
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As with most of this week, today will be more about central banks than the run of economic data, though the latter has a number of points of interest ranging from the overnight Australia Q2 GDP, Japanese wages and German Factory Orders to the US and Canadian Trade data and the Non-manufacturing ISM, even if statistics are largely secondary in terms of their overall market influence at the current juncture. The Bank of Canada (unch), National Bank of Poland (unch) and Brazil COPOM (-100 bps) policy meetings accompany the overnight comments from Kaplan and this evening's Fed Beige Book, while Germany offers a very modest EUR 3.0 Bln of 5-yr OBLs, with this evenings API Oil inventories is the other point of interest, with politics continuing to cast a long shadow, be that Brexit, North Korea or US / UK domestic politics related. Trump's speech this evening is expected to focus on tax reform, and with his approval rating higher in North Dakota (59%), only just second to West Virginia, this could prove to be one of his more pugnacious and bellicose speeches. Japan's wages data proved to be very disappointing, falling 0.3% y/y vs. expectations of a rise of 0.5% y/y, and paced by a steep fall in summer bonuses of -2.2% y/y, with overtime pay rising a very modest 0.1% y/y. It does suggest that the stronger private consumption trend seen in Q2 may prove to be rather less durable, and comes ahead of the expected downward revision to Q2 GDP on Friday to a still respectable 0.7% q/q from the provisional 1.0%. German Factory Orders were also somewhat disappointing at -0.7% m/m vs. a forecast of +0.2% and June's +0.9% m/m, though excluding the very volatile bulk orders category orders were up 0.6%, and the Bundesbank's WDA/SA measure still shows total Orders up 1.4% in the months to July, and accelerating to 7.2% in y/y terms. The progress of Hurricane Irma (being hotly pursued by Hurricane Jose, which is expected to be bounced back by Irma) will also be closely watched, with late Q3 US activity data likely to see a considerable drag as a result.
** Canada - BoC rate decision **
- The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates at 0.75% by a majority of forecasters, though the strength of recent data has some forecasters looking for a 25 bps rate hike. Last week's strong Q2 / June GDP data and the recently quite rapid fall in Unemployment Rate certainly offer grounds for the BoC to follow up on July's tightening, in so far as they imply that the output gap is being eroded at a faster pace than the BoC has been assuming, though with inflation very subdued (the BoC's core common index at 1.4% y/y is only just above its multi-decade low of 1.3%), the case for consecutive meeting rate hikes looks to be quite, even if they will probably signal that an October hike is on the cards, all things being equal. The case for October over September is all the stronger, in so far as the BOC will have a clearer picture on whether the housing market has really turned, whether the strong H1 2017 growth momentum has carried into Q3, and indeed the extent to which the labour market has tightened further, and indeed if the marginal evidence of an uptick in inflation in July will turn into a sustained trend.
** U.S.A. - August Non-manufacturing ISM / Fed Beige Book **
- The unexpectedly steep fall in the July Non-manufacturing ISM to 53.9 from 57.4, was above all predicated on the setback in New Orders (55.1 vs.60.5), which is inherently volatile, and the presumption is that this was something of an outlier. The consensus looks for a rebound to 55.5 at the headline level, in no small part due to the big jump in the often not well correlated Markit Services PMI to a 29 month high of 56.9 from 54.7; the Philadelphia Fed's non-manufacturing survey was also robust. The Beige Book remains the most comprehensive overview of current economic activity in the US, but with Fed speakers and many in financial markets fretting over the inflation outlook, it has for the time being been relegated to a subordinated role, with the primary points of interest related to sector specific information. July's Beige Book implied slightly greater divergence in overall activity 'slight to moderate' versus a protracted period of 'modest to moderate'. It highlighted continued weakness in Auto Sales and some headwinds from low inventories in the housing sector, and a continued strengthening of the oil and natural gas sector recoveries, while also noting continued tightening in labour markets, though still noting that outside of construction and information technology, wage pressures remain modest to moderate. Eminently consumer spending, wage and price trend will attract plenty of attention in today's report, but there will be particular interest in the Agricultural sector given adverse weather conditions, as well as the previously highlighted Auto and Housing sectors
from Marc Ostwald
Non-manufacturing ISM and Fed's Beige Book; politics domestic and
international still front and central; Canada, Poland & Brazil rate
decisions
- Japan wages drop implies Q2 private consumption pick-up may not prove
to be sustainable
- US Non-manufacturing ISM: Markit Services PMI and Philly Fed Non-
manufacturing surveys predicate expected rebound from surprise July drop
- Fed Beige Book: focus on wages along with auto, housing and agricultural
sectors
- Bank of Canada: expected to hold rates, but offer strong hint about
October hike
- Charts: WTI vs. RBOB Gasoline, WTI vs Brent, CNY/USD vs CNY TWI
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As with most of this week, today will be more about central banks than the run of economic data, though the latter has a number of points of interest ranging from the overnight Australia Q2 GDP, Japanese wages and German Factory Orders to the US and Canadian Trade data and the Non-manufacturing ISM, even if statistics are largely secondary in terms of their overall market influence at the current juncture. The Bank of Canada (unch), National Bank of Poland (unch) and Brazil COPOM (-100 bps) policy meetings accompany the overnight comments from Kaplan and this evening's Fed Beige Book, while Germany offers a very modest EUR 3.0 Bln of 5-yr OBLs, with this evenings API Oil inventories is the other point of interest, with politics continuing to cast a long shadow, be that Brexit, North Korea or US / UK domestic politics related. Trump's speech this evening is expected to focus on tax reform, and with his approval rating higher in North Dakota (59%), only just second to West Virginia, this could prove to be one of his more pugnacious and bellicose speeches. Japan's wages data proved to be very disappointing, falling 0.3% y/y vs. expectations of a rise of 0.5% y/y, and paced by a steep fall in summer bonuses of -2.2% y/y, with overtime pay rising a very modest 0.1% y/y. It does suggest that the stronger private consumption trend seen in Q2 may prove to be rather less durable, and comes ahead of the expected downward revision to Q2 GDP on Friday to a still respectable 0.7% q/q from the provisional 1.0%. German Factory Orders were also somewhat disappointing at -0.7% m/m vs. a forecast of +0.2% and June's +0.9% m/m, though excluding the very volatile bulk orders category orders were up 0.6%, and the Bundesbank's WDA/SA measure still shows total Orders up 1.4% in the months to July, and accelerating to 7.2% in y/y terms. The progress of Hurricane Irma (being hotly pursued by Hurricane Jose, which is expected to be bounced back by Irma) will also be closely watched, with late Q3 US activity data likely to see a considerable drag as a result.
** Canada - BoC rate decision **
- The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates at 0.75% by a majority of forecasters, though the strength of recent data has some forecasters looking for a 25 bps rate hike. Last week's strong Q2 / June GDP data and the recently quite rapid fall in Unemployment Rate certainly offer grounds for the BoC to follow up on July's tightening, in so far as they imply that the output gap is being eroded at a faster pace than the BoC has been assuming, though with inflation very subdued (the BoC's core common index at 1.4% y/y is only just above its multi-decade low of 1.3%), the case for consecutive meeting rate hikes looks to be quite, even if they will probably signal that an October hike is on the cards, all things being equal. The case for October over September is all the stronger, in so far as the BOC will have a clearer picture on whether the housing market has really turned, whether the strong H1 2017 growth momentum has carried into Q3, and indeed the extent to which the labour market has tightened further, and indeed if the marginal evidence of an uptick in inflation in July will turn into a sustained trend.
** U.S.A. - August Non-manufacturing ISM / Fed Beige Book **
- The unexpectedly steep fall in the July Non-manufacturing ISM to 53.9 from 57.4, was above all predicated on the setback in New Orders (55.1 vs.60.5), which is inherently volatile, and the presumption is that this was something of an outlier. The consensus looks for a rebound to 55.5 at the headline level, in no small part due to the big jump in the often not well correlated Markit Services PMI to a 29 month high of 56.9 from 54.7; the Philadelphia Fed's non-manufacturing survey was also robust. The Beige Book remains the most comprehensive overview of current economic activity in the US, but with Fed speakers and many in financial markets fretting over the inflation outlook, it has for the time being been relegated to a subordinated role, with the primary points of interest related to sector specific information. July's Beige Book implied slightly greater divergence in overall activity 'slight to moderate' versus a protracted period of 'modest to moderate'. It highlighted continued weakness in Auto Sales and some headwinds from low inventories in the housing sector, and a continued strengthening of the oil and natural gas sector recoveries, while also noting continued tightening in labour markets, though still noting that outside of construction and information technology, wage pressures remain modest to moderate. Eminently consumer spending, wage and price trend will attract plenty of attention in today's report, but there will be particular interest in the Agricultural sector given adverse weather conditions, as well as the previously highlighted Auto and Housing sectors
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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oil 49.00 for a P/D
Dentalfloss
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cable testing our 1.3050 rez
Dentalfloss
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needs to get into 12200 for a bull test
do we break that 3 month/nearly downtrend...just 2 weeks shy of 3 months
12165-12183 first
Dentalfloss
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ftse in a supp area
Moneylender
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Found support a 12090
Aren't we still below the diagonal rez?damn
just got home and did my own analysis but notice ML has posted 3 charts in the same time and Dentist and Cantagril are back from their hols..how slow am I?
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Dentalfloss
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eurusd in rez
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Looks like we bounced off that resistant at about 12110
Dentalfloss
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and dump
excellent
Moneylender
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Updated DAX chart. Need to Break out @ 12115, then down trend will be under threat!
Moneylender
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Closeup for the day sofar!
Dentalfloss
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yeah..its a dog..but good fro scalps
Dentalfloss
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dump...excellent stuff
Dentalfloss
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snd dump..for a few..so far
Dentalfloss
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lookin like 12165 on the cards
Moneylender
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Rumors that Rex Tillerson is on the way out!!!
