Dentalfloss
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22K is rez now..??
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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dow...a tad overnought
main trend that started on 24th july/red
green is internal
could retrace to test green
interaction with that trendline
Dentalfloss
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bears will want to keep bounces below the green trendline
Dentalfloss
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7440 ftse for tomorra
pump or dump
pump or dump
Dentalfloss
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oil dumped...wont help dow
Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
triple whammy on dax
triple whammy on dax
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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12210 is prev rez ....could be supp
difficult to tell if bulls have any clout...could be a recoil in a downtrend
12500 is upside horizontal or 12110 is downside
goin either way
difficult to tell if bulls have any clout...could be a recoil in a downtrend
12500 is upside horizontal or 12110 is downside
goin either way
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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difficult...mixed signals
price has deviated from trendline..poss a tad overbought
but
balancing row is at lower end of pattern..poss bullish still
need to see ink at top of pattern for bearish sentiment
a move to 22100 should make it very overstretched
whho knows...lol
price has deviated from trendline..poss a tad overbought
but
balancing row is at lower end of pattern..poss bullish still
need to see ink at top of pattern for bearish sentiment
a move to 22100 should make it very overstretched
whho knows...lol
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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gotcha
Dentalfloss
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- Minimalist data calendar has UK BRC Shop Prices and Construction PMI
ahead of US ADP Employment; RBI seen cutting rates, Fed hawks on parade,
German 10-yr, EIA Crude Inventories anda further rash of earnings
- UK BRC Shop Prices: dip does not signal trend turn, wholly due to base
effects
- US ADP Employment: consensus forecast as ever agnostic, unreliability
as a predictor for Payrolls underscored in May/June
- India rates: low inflation, structural reforms, inward investment flows
all give RBI scope to ease policy
- Charts: WTI Oil, Iron Ore & Copper
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
It being the second day of the month, the data calendar is as usual rather sparse, primarily being a case of digesting UK BRC Shop Prices ahead of the Construction PMI, while the US has the ADP Private Employment estimate. A busier day on the central bank front has the ECB monthly bulletin ahead of the RBI rate decision, while there is Fed speak from the hawkishly inclined Mester and Williams (non-voters this year). Germany sells a modest EUR 3.0 bln of 10-yr Bunds, and there is another busy run of corporate earnings on both sides of the Atlantic. This afternoon's EIA oil inventories will be closely watched after an unexpected 1.8 Mln jump in the API Crude stocks measures, though product stocks and imports all fell, prompting a correction in crude prices that had become rather overstretched. The overnight BRC Shop Price index posted a surprise slip to -0.4% y/y, though this was entirely due to base effects, given that last July saw a relatively sharp jump to -1.6% y/y from June's -2.0%; in other words this is not a signal that the setback in June's CPI marked the top of the cycle (the August BRC Shop Price measure has an exact reversal in base effect terms). Yesterday's British Gas Electricity price hike (12.5%) and today's Virgin Media one (4.75%) are timely reminders that even if the MPC keeps policy on hold tomorrow as expected, inflation pressures are definitely not going away.
** U.S.A. - July ADP Private Employment **
- AS more than amply demonstrated over the past two months, the ADP estimate of Private Payrolls is quite often a poor predictor of the official, and as such needs to be treated with great care, with June underestimating by 29K and May overestimating by 71K. Forecasts for both measures are however generally very closely aligned, and rarely far from 3 and 6 moth averages for the official data. Survey data has been quite mixed in directional terms vs June, as is typical, though it is worth noting that Initial Claims in the week of the establishment survey dipped to 234K, though this tends to be a better pointer for where the risks lie for the official data rather than the ADP. It has to be added that with markets far more focussed short-term on the ostensible fiasco of US politics, both today's ADP and Friday's labour data are going to have to spring some quite big surprises to have a significant impact.
** India - RBI rate decision **
- As previously noted, India's RBI finds itself in a relatively enviable position, whereby FDI flows are clearly supporting the INR, which currently has the highest net long among Asian currencies; structural reforms are underway and the Goods and Services Tax is finally in place, both of which should help to shift India's trend growth rate higher. Inflation, as per CPI, is very well contained at 1.54% y/y, which in turn means that real 10-yr yields are just below 5.0%. India's other perennial bug bear, its current account, is also very well contained at just 0.6% of GDP; all of which gives the RBI scope to gently ease rates again.
from Marc Ostwald
ahead of US ADP Employment; RBI seen cutting rates, Fed hawks on parade,
German 10-yr, EIA Crude Inventories anda further rash of earnings
- UK BRC Shop Prices: dip does not signal trend turn, wholly due to base
effects
- US ADP Employment: consensus forecast as ever agnostic, unreliability
as a predictor for Payrolls underscored in May/June
- India rates: low inflation, structural reforms, inward investment flows
all give RBI scope to ease policy
- Charts: WTI Oil, Iron Ore & Copper
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
It being the second day of the month, the data calendar is as usual rather sparse, primarily being a case of digesting UK BRC Shop Prices ahead of the Construction PMI, while the US has the ADP Private Employment estimate. A busier day on the central bank front has the ECB monthly bulletin ahead of the RBI rate decision, while there is Fed speak from the hawkishly inclined Mester and Williams (non-voters this year). Germany sells a modest EUR 3.0 bln of 10-yr Bunds, and there is another busy run of corporate earnings on both sides of the Atlantic. This afternoon's EIA oil inventories will be closely watched after an unexpected 1.8 Mln jump in the API Crude stocks measures, though product stocks and imports all fell, prompting a correction in crude prices that had become rather overstretched. The overnight BRC Shop Price index posted a surprise slip to -0.4% y/y, though this was entirely due to base effects, given that last July saw a relatively sharp jump to -1.6% y/y from June's -2.0%; in other words this is not a signal that the setback in June's CPI marked the top of the cycle (the August BRC Shop Price measure has an exact reversal in base effect terms). Yesterday's British Gas Electricity price hike (12.5%) and today's Virgin Media one (4.75%) are timely reminders that even if the MPC keeps policy on hold tomorrow as expected, inflation pressures are definitely not going away.
** U.S.A. - July ADP Private Employment **
- AS more than amply demonstrated over the past two months, the ADP estimate of Private Payrolls is quite often a poor predictor of the official, and as such needs to be treated with great care, with June underestimating by 29K and May overestimating by 71K. Forecasts for both measures are however generally very closely aligned, and rarely far from 3 and 6 moth averages for the official data. Survey data has been quite mixed in directional terms vs June, as is typical, though it is worth noting that Initial Claims in the week of the establishment survey dipped to 234K, though this tends to be a better pointer for where the risks lie for the official data rather than the ADP. It has to be added that with markets far more focussed short-term on the ostensible fiasco of US politics, both today's ADP and Friday's labour data are going to have to spring some quite big surprises to have a significant impact.
** India - RBI rate decision **
- As previously noted, India's RBI finds itself in a relatively enviable position, whereby FDI flows are clearly supporting the INR, which currently has the highest net long among Asian currencies; structural reforms are underway and the Goods and Services Tax is finally in place, both of which should help to shift India's trend growth rate higher. Inflation, as per CPI, is very well contained at 1.54% y/y, which in turn means that real 10-yr yields are just below 5.0%. India's other perennial bug bear, its current account, is also very well contained at just 0.6% of GDP; all of which gives the RBI scope to gently ease rates again.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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Welcome to the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine which has a variety of themes ranging from the US dollar’s woes, through oil, gold, Bitcoin and bond yields and equity markets, asking in many cases whether markets are at or close to inflection point.
Over the past year the US dollar has seen sentiment swing from an interest rate and Trump-flation related euphoria to a ‘bubble burst’ in Q2, but will this consensus swing fall victim to overstretched positioning and seasonality? The downward pressure on govt bond yields and credit spreads is generally assumed to be a product of extreme central bank monetary accommodation in response to a weak inflationary impulse. But there are, and have been, a broader set of factors at work which will likely keep long-term interest rates subdued, even when central banks start to remove ‘the punchbowl from the table’. Gold prices have been locked in a narrow range for a protracted period, we look at the many structural factors that have served to contain the price, and highlight physical market trends which might trigger a rally. Are their lessons to be learned from the Bimetallic (Gold & Silver) Standard over the post (US) Civil War era for the apparent challenge of cryptocurrencies to the hegemony of the US dollar? Accompanying the US dollar’s weakness has been a re-emergence of the ‘bad news is good’ syndrome, which gained traction at the height of extreme central bank accommodation, but is this really anything other than a knee-jerk phenomenon?
In a broad sweep, this edition also looks at prospects for the EU’s renewable fuel industry, as the European Commission faces a critical decision. Where does the sugar market go after this year’s rout, as health politics runs rings around the uncertainty surrounding the quasi-liberalization of EU sugar markets, and what are the prospects for grains in the currently heavily weather related trading patterns? Last but not least, and after a roller coaster ride, what are the prospects for oil markets? What are likely to be the key influences as OPEC contends with rising US shale production?
Marc Ostwald
Global Strategist
ADM Investor Services International Ltd
Over the past year the US dollar has seen sentiment swing from an interest rate and Trump-flation related euphoria to a ‘bubble burst’ in Q2, but will this consensus swing fall victim to overstretched positioning and seasonality? The downward pressure on govt bond yields and credit spreads is generally assumed to be a product of extreme central bank monetary accommodation in response to a weak inflationary impulse. But there are, and have been, a broader set of factors at work which will likely keep long-term interest rates subdued, even when central banks start to remove ‘the punchbowl from the table’. Gold prices have been locked in a narrow range for a protracted period, we look at the many structural factors that have served to contain the price, and highlight physical market trends which might trigger a rally. Are their lessons to be learned from the Bimetallic (Gold & Silver) Standard over the post (US) Civil War era for the apparent challenge of cryptocurrencies to the hegemony of the US dollar? Accompanying the US dollar’s weakness has been a re-emergence of the ‘bad news is good’ syndrome, which gained traction at the height of extreme central bank accommodation, but is this really anything other than a knee-jerk phenomenon?
In a broad sweep, this edition also looks at prospects for the EU’s renewable fuel industry, as the European Commission faces a critical decision. Where does the sugar market go after this year’s rout, as health politics runs rings around the uncertainty surrounding the quasi-liberalization of EU sugar markets, and what are the prospects for grains in the currently heavily weather related trading patterns? Last but not least, and after a roller coaster ride, what are the prospects for oil markets? What are likely to be the key influences as OPEC contends with rising US shale production?
Marc Ostwald
Global Strategist
ADM Investor Services International Ltd
Dentalfloss
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1.3265 area on cable
poss rez starts at 1.3250 ...then up to 1.3300
poss rez starts at 1.3250 ...then up to 1.3300
Dentalfloss
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eurusd in rez 1.1830 to 1.1865 area
Dentalfloss
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1.1868.8 hit 15 mins later ....and dump
Dentalfloss
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1.3250 area hit...and dump
