Dentalfloss
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12046 is a supp on dax...could get tested
tricky...lol
tricky...lol
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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- Manufacturing PMIs as ever dominate first day of month, Eurozone provisional
Q2 GDP, US Personal Income/PCE, Construction Spending and Auto Sales also
due; UK and German auctions, and plenty more earnings; Trump woes, and
API oil inventories the other points of focus
- Asia PMIs generally disappointing outside of China, Eurozone PMIs seen
signalling solid pace of activity; UK expected to edge higher; US ISM
seen edging down after unexpected June jump, but still robust
- RBA resolutely neutral on policy outlook, redeploys protesting AUD
strength as obstacle to tighter policy
- Eurozone GDP: seen maintaining solid Q1 pace, and as ever short on detail
- US Auto Sales: rebound expected after protracted drop from December peak,
some upside risks relative to consensus, unlikely to dispel array of
sector concerns
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A new month, but thematically very little changes, with US politics and geo-political tensions (above all North Korea) still more than throwing a 'tape bomb', while financial repression continues to ensure an asymmetric perspective on incoming data and surveys. While Manufacturing PMIs as ever dominate the schedule on the first day of the month, there is considerably more to consider, ranging from provisional Eurozone Q2 GDP, UK Nationwide House Prices and German Unemployment through US Personal Income/PCE, Construction to US Auto Sales. Otherwise the RBA struck an unsurprisingly neutral tone on the policy outlook, sticking resolutely to the line that it has oft repeated in recent weeks. After resolutely rejecting renewed government pressure to cut rates last week, and even threatening a further rate hike, Turkey's TCMB publishes its latest inflation report, which may help to expand on what might help to trigger a rate cut, or what adverse scenario they can foresee as having the potential to prompt a rate hike. Germany with EUR 4.0 Bln 2-yr and the UK with a further tranche of the 2.25% 2027 Gilt top the govt bond auction schedule. President Trump's woes appear to be rather relentless, with the departure of Scaramucci as White House Communications Director after less than 10 days adding farce to the equation, and only exacerbating concerns about his presidency. As expected, the RBA left rates on hold, and signalled a neutral outlook, while at the same time reviving its protests about the strength of the AUD to underline its resistance to tightening policy any time soon.
** Eurozone _ Q2 provisional GDP **
- Despite an array of 'nay sayers' arguing (at the time) that the Q1 pace of 0.6% q/q could not be sustained, the consensus is for a repeat, which would see the y/y rate at 2.1% from 1.9%. The provisional report is always a little thin on detail and reliant on preliminary readings from just 6 countries, with the provisional, and obviously pivotal, German reading not due until 15th August; the risks may be marginally to the upside of the consensus, notwithstanding the reported dip seen yesterday for Belgium to 0.4% q/q from Q1's 0.6%. While this solid growth momentum is obviously positive, the fact remains that it will not be a game changer for the ECB, with the fractionally higher than expected July core CPI (1.2%) offering a tentative signal that H2 CPI may start to trend higher on a sustainable basis perhaps more significant. But only if this is accompanied by a further erosion of still very substantial labour market slack (even in Germany, where today's Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at 5.7%, well above US, UK and Japan), and broader and stronger wage growth.
** World - July Manufacturing PMIs/ISM **
- Asia's PMIs overnight were decidedly mixed, though markets will almost certainly focus on the unexpected rise in the Caixin version of China's Manufacturing PMI, and ignore what appears to be a GST related dip in India, which may in the end prove to be transitory, and generally weak or weaker than prior month readings elsewhere in most of the rest of Asia. Eurozone PMIs were somewhat mixed in the flash editions, and prompted a certain degree of market disappointment, which national surveys, above all French Business Confidence and a very strong Ifo survey, were quick to dispel, with the focus today on Italy and Spain, where marginal dips (-0.2) to 55.0 and 54.5 are expected, along with the broader array of EU readings. The UK reading is forecast to be little changed at 54.5 (June 54.3), to an extent mirroring last week's CBI Industrial Trends survey, though the two surveys quite frequently diverge in month to month terms. But given the sector is rather marginal in overall GDP terms, this will have to be substantially wide of the consensus to have more than a passing impact, particularly with the BoE meeting looming in the headlights. In the US, the divergence between the Markit PMI (exp. 53.2), which has been mired in a tight range for months, and the buoyant Manufacturing ISM, forecast to dip to 56.5 after jumping 2.9 pts to 57.8 in June, has served to reinforce markets' preference for the latter. Of particular note within the ISM will be whether the jump in Orders last month (62.4 vs 57.1) proves to be a 'flash in the pan', or whether it is largely sustained; yesterday's Chicago PMI will certainly have some seeing some downside risks, though the two are not always well correlated in month to month terms.
** U.S.A. - July Auto Sales **
- Having been something of a stalwart during the post-GFC recovery, the auto sector globally has stumbled from one scandal or mishap to another in recent years, and now faces a mounting array of headwinds, ranging from recalls and the diesel emissions debacle through mounting concerns about the leasing model of auto finance (particularly rising consumer delinquencies potentially leading to ABS defaults), to the complexity of managing the transition from fossil fuel to electronically powered cars, with the concomitant risks of avoiding the cliff edge of stranded production assets during that lengthy transition period. US Auto Sales have staked a claim for the 'hero to zero' award this year, having peaked at a clearly unsustainable 18.29 Mln rate in December, and fallen in yr/yr terms for the five past months, and indeed in month on month SAAR terms in every month this year except April. The consensus looks for some relief in July, which is typically a strong month, in no small part assisted by the 4th July, with a 16.8 Mln SAAR pace expected after dropping ton yr/yr terms for the five past months, and indeed in month on month SAAR terms in every month this year except April. The consensus looks for some relief in July, which is typically a strong month, in no small part assisted by the 4th July, with a 16.8 Mln SAAR pace expected after dropping to the year's low of 16.41 Mln in June. Industry estimates suggest a somewhat stronger outturn in the 17.2 Mln region, which would still imply a 4.0% drop in y/y terms, but at least stall what has appeared to be a relentless loss of momentum, even if a 16.5 Mln pace is still very respectable pace by any historical standard. However, industry estimates also suggest that incentives (consumer discounts) hit a record $3,876, way above the record $3,597 set in July 2016. As such, the primary comfort from anything stronger than expected would be a very small positive contribution to July Retail Sales.
n yr/yr terms for the five past months, and indeed in month on month SAAR terms in every month this year except April. The consensus looks for some relief in July, which is typically a strong month, in no small part assisted by the 4th July, with a 16.8 Mln SAAR pace expected after dropping to the year's low of 16.41 Mln in June. Industry estimates suggest a somewhat stronger outturn in the 17.2 Mln region, which would still imply a 4.0% drop in y/y terms, but at least stall what has appeared to be a relentless loss of momentum, even if a 16.5 Mln pace is still very respectable pace by any historical standard. However, industry estimates also suggest that incentives (consumer discounts) hit a record $3,876, way above the record $3,597 set in July 2016. As such, the primary comfort from anything stronger than expected would be a very small positive contribution to July Retail Sales.
n yr/yr terms for the five past months, and indeed in month on month SAAR terms in every month this year except April. The consensus looks for some relief in July, which is typically a strong month, in no small part assisted by the 4th July, with a 16.8 Mln SAAR pace expected after dropping to the year's low of 16.41 Mln in June. Industry estimates suggest a somewhat stronger outturn in the 17.2 Mln region, which would still imply a 4.0% drop in y/y terms, but at least stall what has appeared to be a relentless loss of momentum, even if a 16.5 Mln pace is still very respectable pace by any historical standard. However, industry estimates also suggest that incentives (consumer discounts) hit a record $3,876, way above the record $3,597 set in July 2016. As such, the primary comfort from anything stronger than expected would be a very small positive contribution to July Retail Sales.
Q2 GDP, US Personal Income/PCE, Construction Spending and Auto Sales also
due; UK and German auctions, and plenty more earnings; Trump woes, and
API oil inventories the other points of focus
- Asia PMIs generally disappointing outside of China, Eurozone PMIs seen
signalling solid pace of activity; UK expected to edge higher; US ISM
seen edging down after unexpected June jump, but still robust
- RBA resolutely neutral on policy outlook, redeploys protesting AUD
strength as obstacle to tighter policy
- Eurozone GDP: seen maintaining solid Q1 pace, and as ever short on detail
- US Auto Sales: rebound expected after protracted drop from December peak,
some upside risks relative to consensus, unlikely to dispel array of
sector concerns
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A new month, but thematically very little changes, with US politics and geo-political tensions (above all North Korea) still more than throwing a 'tape bomb', while financial repression continues to ensure an asymmetric perspective on incoming data and surveys. While Manufacturing PMIs as ever dominate the schedule on the first day of the month, there is considerably more to consider, ranging from provisional Eurozone Q2 GDP, UK Nationwide House Prices and German Unemployment through US Personal Income/PCE, Construction to US Auto Sales. Otherwise the RBA struck an unsurprisingly neutral tone on the policy outlook, sticking resolutely to the line that it has oft repeated in recent weeks. After resolutely rejecting renewed government pressure to cut rates last week, and even threatening a further rate hike, Turkey's TCMB publishes its latest inflation report, which may help to expand on what might help to trigger a rate cut, or what adverse scenario they can foresee as having the potential to prompt a rate hike. Germany with EUR 4.0 Bln 2-yr and the UK with a further tranche of the 2.25% 2027 Gilt top the govt bond auction schedule. President Trump's woes appear to be rather relentless, with the departure of Scaramucci as White House Communications Director after less than 10 days adding farce to the equation, and only exacerbating concerns about his presidency. As expected, the RBA left rates on hold, and signalled a neutral outlook, while at the same time reviving its protests about the strength of the AUD to underline its resistance to tightening policy any time soon.
** Eurozone _ Q2 provisional GDP **
- Despite an array of 'nay sayers' arguing (at the time) that the Q1 pace of 0.6% q/q could not be sustained, the consensus is for a repeat, which would see the y/y rate at 2.1% from 1.9%. The provisional report is always a little thin on detail and reliant on preliminary readings from just 6 countries, with the provisional, and obviously pivotal, German reading not due until 15th August; the risks may be marginally to the upside of the consensus, notwithstanding the reported dip seen yesterday for Belgium to 0.4% q/q from Q1's 0.6%. While this solid growth momentum is obviously positive, the fact remains that it will not be a game changer for the ECB, with the fractionally higher than expected July core CPI (1.2%) offering a tentative signal that H2 CPI may start to trend higher on a sustainable basis perhaps more significant. But only if this is accompanied by a further erosion of still very substantial labour market slack (even in Germany, where today's Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at 5.7%, well above US, UK and Japan), and broader and stronger wage growth.
** World - July Manufacturing PMIs/ISM **
- Asia's PMIs overnight were decidedly mixed, though markets will almost certainly focus on the unexpected rise in the Caixin version of China's Manufacturing PMI, and ignore what appears to be a GST related dip in India, which may in the end prove to be transitory, and generally weak or weaker than prior month readings elsewhere in most of the rest of Asia. Eurozone PMIs were somewhat mixed in the flash editions, and prompted a certain degree of market disappointment, which national surveys, above all French Business Confidence and a very strong Ifo survey, were quick to dispel, with the focus today on Italy and Spain, where marginal dips (-0.2) to 55.0 and 54.5 are expected, along with the broader array of EU readings. The UK reading is forecast to be little changed at 54.5 (June 54.3), to an extent mirroring last week's CBI Industrial Trends survey, though the two surveys quite frequently diverge in month to month terms. But given the sector is rather marginal in overall GDP terms, this will have to be substantially wide of the consensus to have more than a passing impact, particularly with the BoE meeting looming in the headlights. In the US, the divergence between the Markit PMI (exp. 53.2), which has been mired in a tight range for months, and the buoyant Manufacturing ISM, forecast to dip to 56.5 after jumping 2.9 pts to 57.8 in June, has served to reinforce markets' preference for the latter. Of particular note within the ISM will be whether the jump in Orders last month (62.4 vs 57.1) proves to be a 'flash in the pan', or whether it is largely sustained; yesterday's Chicago PMI will certainly have some seeing some downside risks, though the two are not always well correlated in month to month terms.
** U.S.A. - July Auto Sales **
- Having been something of a stalwart during the post-GFC recovery, the auto sector globally has stumbled from one scandal or mishap to another in recent years, and now faces a mounting array of headwinds, ranging from recalls and the diesel emissions debacle through mounting concerns about the leasing model of auto finance (particularly rising consumer delinquencies potentially leading to ABS defaults), to the complexity of managing the transition from fossil fuel to electronically powered cars, with the concomitant risks of avoiding the cliff edge of stranded production assets during that lengthy transition period. US Auto Sales have staked a claim for the 'hero to zero' award this year, having peaked at a clearly unsustainable 18.29 Mln rate in December, and fallen in yr/yr terms for the five past months, and indeed in month on month SAAR terms in every month this year except April. The consensus looks for some relief in July, which is typically a strong month, in no small part assisted by the 4th July, with a 16.8 Mln SAAR pace expected after dropping ton yr/yr terms for the five past months, and indeed in month on month SAAR terms in every month this year except April. The consensus looks for some relief in July, which is typically a strong month, in no small part assisted by the 4th July, with a 16.8 Mln SAAR pace expected after dropping to the year's low of 16.41 Mln in June. Industry estimates suggest a somewhat stronger outturn in the 17.2 Mln region, which would still imply a 4.0% drop in y/y terms, but at least stall what has appeared to be a relentless loss of momentum, even if a 16.5 Mln pace is still very respectable pace by any historical standard. However, industry estimates also suggest that incentives (consumer discounts) hit a record $3,876, way above the record $3,597 set in July 2016. As such, the primary comfort from anything stronger than expected would be a very small positive contribution to July Retail Sales.
n yr/yr terms for the five past months, and indeed in month on month SAAR terms in every month this year except April. The consensus looks for some relief in July, which is typically a strong month, in no small part assisted by the 4th July, with a 16.8 Mln SAAR pace expected after dropping to the year's low of 16.41 Mln in June. Industry estimates suggest a somewhat stronger outturn in the 17.2 Mln region, which would still imply a 4.0% drop in y/y terms, but at least stall what has appeared to be a relentless loss of momentum, even if a 16.5 Mln pace is still very respectable pace by any historical standard. However, industry estimates also suggest that incentives (consumer discounts) hit a record $3,876, way above the record $3,597 set in July 2016. As such, the primary comfort from anything stronger than expected would be a very small positive contribution to July Retail Sales.
n yr/yr terms for the five past months, and indeed in month on month SAAR terms in every month this year except April. The consensus looks for some relief in July, which is typically a strong month, in no small part assisted by the 4th July, with a 16.8 Mln SAAR pace expected after dropping to the year's low of 16.41 Mln in June. Industry estimates suggest a somewhat stronger outturn in the 17.2 Mln region, which would still imply a 4.0% drop in y/y terms, but at least stall what has appeared to be a relentless loss of momentum, even if a 16.5 Mln pace is still very respectable pace by any historical standard. However, industry estimates also suggest that incentives (consumer discounts) hit a record $3,876, way above the record $3,597 set in July 2016. As such, the primary comfort from anything stronger than expected would be a very small positive contribution to July Retail Sales.
Dentalfloss
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breaking news.....Kelly has fired Trump
Dentalfloss
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Trump.....I thought my wife was difficult....lol
Dentalfloss
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dow...a tad overnought
main trend that started on 24th july/red
green is internal
could retrace to test green
main trend that started on 24th july/red
green is internal
could retrace to test green
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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21960 is horizontal supp
21930 prev rez
21950 is trendline
or...
we pump 22K
21930 prev rez
21950 is trendline
or...
we pump 22K
Dentalfloss
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dax...12100 area held...and pump
excellent
we need to get into 12180
excellent
we need to get into 12180
Dentalfloss
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12150 for a pump or dump first
Dentalfloss
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upside horizontal count of 22032
Dentalfloss
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0.8930 hit
excellent stuff
excellent stuff
Dentalfloss
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pump to our 12180 area
Long Move Killer
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:clap:
Dentalfloss
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And Whammo
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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yes sir
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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eurjpy
our 130.50 pump or dump area workin again today
our 130.50 pump or dump area workin again today
Dentalfloss
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yes sir
gotcha
Dentalfloss
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dax flyin
as we said...bears got lucky yesterday with Scaramucci
as we said...bears got lucky yesterday with Scaramucci
C
cantagril
Still got my 220 longs and added a couple more at 195. I'll take 232... if I can get it
Hmmm. Now fully hedged and have cunningly locked in an average loss of 20 pips per lot until it clambers back up
To my surprise that ended up being quite a good trade. Took off a couple at 232 for +12 each and the other two at 260 for +65 each.
Now flat....
