Trading with point and figure

its slightly tricky...cos these are just minor trends within some sort of range
direction upwards is slightly uncertain..short term


bulls get a real test at 12623 area

1zy7c47.png
 
you can see the fake quite clearly and the flash crash
went back into supp...and a minor bounce..so far
difficult..until we ss the reaction at 12620..ish
 
Moneylender said:
Morning all.

Vets again this morning if we can catch the critter!
Click to expand...

Morning Maestro!

You're not talking about Daxie here, are you?

Have already missed a short at the 7 o'clock spike. I'll see what else I can miss a bit later on:)
 
Don't forget the ECB at 12:30 he cocked it up last month so he's bound to get it right today.

Dictated by me and typed in my absence.
 
- Digesting BOJ, Japan Trade, Australia jobs and ADB forecast upgrades,
all eyes on ECB; UK Retail Sales, US Claims and Philly Fed also due;
France, Spain & US auctions and plenty more Q2 earnings

- UK Retail Sales; modest rebound expected from May slide, underlying
trend weak and likely to remain so

- BoJ - few surprises, more upbeat GDP forecasts unable to disguise
sixth pushback on timeline for achieving CPI target, easing bias
retained

- ECB likely to do no more than say 'discussing tapering', will update
in September, watch for comments re: EUR strength pushing down on CPI

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

After a week that has been rather sparse thus far in macroeconomic terms, a rather busier schedule awaits with the ECB and BoJ meetings as its inevitable focal points. Statistically there are the Japan Trade and Australian labour data to digest ahead of UK Retail Sales, US jobless claims and Philly Fed survey, and provisional Eurozone Consumer Confidence. There are also rate decisions in Indonesia, South Africa and Paraguay, all of which are expected to see policy rates left on hold, while France (short dated OATs and a selection of OATeis), Spain (5 to 10 yr) and the US (10-yr TIPS) hold bond auctions. US Q2 earnings reports also pick up their pace. As for the BoJ meeting, unsurprisingly the BoJ was forced once again to push back on its CPI forecasts, with CPI now seen close to the 2.0% target in FY2019/20, and as much as it inched up its GDP forecasts for the current and next fiscal year, Kuroda conceded that the risks for the economy and inflation are 'tilted to the downside'. There was also not a lot of confidence evident in the comment that companies are 'more cautious on raising prices but (BoJ) doesn't expect this to go on forever'.

** Eurozone - ECB meeting **
- There has been much speculation about what the ECB might announce at this meeting with regards to tapering its QE programme (as of January 2018). 'Sources' suggest that the ECB will not want a fixed timetable like the Fed had, but will rather factor in considerable flexibility. What may be announced at the meeting is that various ECB departments and committees will be given the task of exploring the best methodology, with a decision deferred until September, when it will also have an updated set of staff forecasts. Given the market furore around Draghi's comments about "reflationary forces displacing deflationary forces", he will surely want to clarify precisely what he meant, and most likely qualify those comments by suggesting that core CPI is far from displaying a sustainable uptrend that would see headline CPI heading towards the ECB target of close to 2.0%, even if the disinflationary threat has passed. He may well again highlight that while the ECB absolutely does not have an exchange rate target, it nevertheless has to take account of the likely impact of EUR strength (or weakness) when considering the outlook for inflation. As such there would appear to be some risk that markets view his comments as being rather more dovish than expected, just as they did with Yellen's testimony.

** U.K. - June Retail Sales **
- Chiming in with the various survey measures of Retail Sales (BRC, Visa, etc), the rebound from the much sharper than expected 1.2% m/m fall in May is expected to be very modest at +0.4% m/m. However thanks to favourable base effects (Brexit referendum related 'shock'), the y/y rate would rebound to 2.5% from 0.9%, though this will prove to be a short-lived benefit. In terms of the clues from Tuesday's CPI, clothing sales should benefit from seasonal discounts, however this may well be more than offset by the lack of discounting in the 'larger ticket' furniture/household goods. Be that as it may, the underlying trend as represented by the 3-mth/3-mth pace of sales (last 0.6% q/q) will remain very weak if the consensus estimate proves to be correct.

from Marc Ostwald
 
dentist007 said:
ya might get 12620 today with Draghi speakin
Click to expand...

You're probably right. He's usually good for a thrill or two.

My reading of PA over the last few weeks is that whatever happens, the 500 - 600 level is unfinished business for the immediate future.
 
My take on the day sofar, draghi is the unknown in a couple of hours. Personally staying out until this pm.

25thie1.jpg
 
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