Trading with point and figure

ftse

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ftse...we have been bullish on that for some time...we said it was lagging dax and dow
200 point move
 
dentist007 said:
ftse...we have been bullish on that for some time...we said it was lagging dax and dow
200 point move
Click to expand...

G'day folks,

ftse - Great analysis 007... glad you got your pips for the weekend!

think we will retrace from yesterday 50-80%.. could be today or tomorrow.

Bulls satisfied @7400.. looking for a move back to 7350..poss back to sp 7336

Could be wrong....and its not to say we won't move to 7410 (fake) in the interim but my tea leaves say a move is on the cards....

Need to keep an eye on PA...and be ready
 
- UK Production, Trade and BoE Inflation Report top day's agenda;
Sweden CPI, US PPI and Jobless Claims, Fed and ECB speak and OPEC Oil
Market Report also on tap; Italy and US to auction govt debt

- UK Production: Utilities & resources seen dragging on headline, surveys
suggest some upside risks on Manufacturing Output, Construction Output
forecast to post dead cat bounce

- UK Trade Balance: modestly narrower deficit seen after 'erratics' pushed
Feb deficit sharply wider

- BoE rate decision: some speculation about additional dissenter

- BoE Q2 Inflation report: focus on extent of any forecast revisions,
likely to highlight firmer GBP and weaker Q1 Consumer Spending as
grounds not to jump the gun in response to inflation rise

- US PPI: seen rebound from March dip, Import Prices imply modest upside
risks, y/y rates underline lack of any significant price pressures

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The 'business' end of the week is upon us in terms of data and central bank events. In the UK Production, Construction Output and Trade data follow the RICS House Price survey, while Sweden (and its inflation nutters at the Riskbank) have CPI, while the US sees weekly jobless claims and PPI. The BoE rate decision is accompanied by the Q2 Inflation Report and press conference and the ECB publishes its Economic Bulletin, while rates are seen on hold in the Philippines, with a sprinkling of ECB and Fed speaks rounding off the day's central bank schedule. Italy with EUR 7.25 Bln total of medium and long-dated BTPs, and the US$15.0 Bln of a new 30-yr feature on the govt bond auction schedule. Elsewhere OPEC publishes its monthly Oil Market Report, which follows yesterday's big jump in oil prices, the largest one day jump since December, that effectively confirms that the negative trend of recent weeks has been overcome, as had been effectively signalled by Friday's key day reversal. Be that as it may, the burden is now on OPEC to deliver & Non-OPEC an extension to their production cap deal when they meet this month.

** U.K. - March Trade, Industrial Production & Trade Balance **
- Ahead of the BoE, today's run of industry statistics are not expected to offer much in the way of encouragement on the economy, despite the optimism seen in recent surveys. Resources and utilities are seen weighing on Industrial Production, where -0.2% m/m is forecast after February's -0.7%, while Manufacturing Output is seen unchanged after a modest -0.1% m/m, though surveys eminently hint at upside risks to today's report, particularly in terms of manufacturing output. The very volatile and frequently heavily revised Construction Output is seen expected to post a dead cat bounce of 0.4% (m) after sliding 1.7% (m) in February, overall confirming a weak Q1. As for the Trade Balance, a modest narrowing in the Visible deficit to £-11.6 Bln is expected from a 6 month wide of £-12.46 Bln, the latter having been attributed to 'erratic' items such as non-monetary gold and aircraft, which in principle hints at a better outcome. At least February's readings saw a relatively positive 4.1% 3-mth/3-mth rise in Exports and 1.7% for Imports, even though this was a slower pace of growth than January. But overall there is little evidence as yet that there have been tangible benefits from the fall in the GBP.

** U.K. - BoE rate decision & Inflation Report **
- While surprises on today's data may prompt some chatter in markets about the MPC might react, such speculation will likely be misplaced. Be that as it may, there is speculation that one or other MPC member may join the departing Forbes in voting for a rate hike, with Saunders being the name in the frame. As noted earlier in the week, the Bank of England is nothing if not opportunistic, and despite much better survey and BRC readings for April, it will doubtless point to the weak Q1 consumer spending data as a key reason for leaning against tightening policy. It will probably also 'talk up' the (modest) recovery in the GBP as offering grounds not to revise up its inflation forecasts, despite the faster than expected rise in both headline and core CPI. The press conference may prove to be a rather dull affair, in so far as Carney and his fellow MPC members will likely be at pains not to offer any opinions which might be construed as 'interfering' in the general election; as such, this could prove to be something of a non-event. Nevertheless, a re-read of last week's Economic Insights "Blaming Brexit" (see attached) is highly recommended.

** U.S.A. - April PPI **
- As with yesterday's higher than expected Import Prices, a 0.2% m/m rebound from the March dip of 0.1% m/m, though due to base effects this would see the y/y rate slip to a modest 2.2%. The Import Price mini surge (0.5% m/m) was surprisingly led by Petroleum Products (1.6% m/m) and Industrial Supplies (1.1%), which appeared somewhat counterfactual given the setback in market prices, and suggests some upside risks for today's report, especially given the likelihood of a rebound in Trade Services. Core PPI is also seen up 0.2% m/m, which would fit with the indications from the Import Price data. After dipping more than expected to 238K, weekly jobless claims are seen reverting to around their recent average level at 245K, though a sharper bounce is possible as this series can be a little choppy at this time of year. However the fact remains that the US labour market remains tight, and thus a sharper than expected bounce should not be seen as being indicative of a potential trend change.


from Marc Ostwald
 
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