Dentalfloss
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12600 poss on the cards
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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7255 supp on ftse
pulling back now
pulling back now
Dentalfloss
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12560 first supp
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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7260 first
Dentalfloss
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- US Health Care Act vote likely front and central as markets look to
Friday's Payrolls; UK/Eurozone Services PMI, UK Credit and Auto Sales,
US Trade, Claims and Productivity also due, ECB speakers, rate meetings
in Norway and Czech Republic, more earnings and UK, French & Spanish
bond sales
- Norges Bank: on hold and likely to avoid any signal on rates that might
strengthen NOK
- Czech CNB: seen on hold after dropping EUR/CZK cap, likely to be
relieved that govt resignation restrained Crown rise
- UK Services PMI: solid Manufacturing & Construction PMIs suggest
scope for upside surprise, against expectations of a dip
- UK Consumer Credit: borrowing expected to dip mirroring soft Retail Sales
- US Non-farm Productivity seen dropping on back of weak GDP, focus on
Unit Labour Costs
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As much as today's schedule is not short of statistical, central bank and earnings highlights, these all fall in the hiatus between the FOMC meeting and tomorrow's US labour data, and as such bear the burden of needing to surprise to inspire any reaction, and will in any case be overshadowed by the vote on the US Health Care Act in Congress. Services PMIs from the UK, Eurozone and Asia are accompanied by UK monetary and credit aggregates, US and Canadian Trade, US Weekly jobless claims, Q1 Productivity and Factory Orders. On the central bank front, there are a number of ECB speakers, while central banks in Norway and the Czech Republic are set to keep policy on hold, and Spain, France and the UK all hold govt bond auctions. In terms of the central bank meetings, this is not a Norges Bank policy report meeting, and unsurprisingly rates are seen on hold at 0.50%, even if recent data and a marked drop in the NOK vs. EUR offer some grounds for a less accommodative message; however Norges Bank will more than likely want to avoid prompting a reversal of the NOK's drop since the March meeting, and per se will likely send a cautious message on the outlook. The CNB holds its first meeting since dropping the EUR/CZK cap, and the resignation of the government, it is also due to update its economic forecasts, with rates seen on hold at 0.05% at this meeting and for the rest of 2017. Given the weight of positioning ahead of removing the 27.00 cap, the CNB will be relieved that there was a) only a limited squeze in reaction, and b) that the fall of the government reversed much of the rise; it will certainly confirm that while it expects to hike rates, it is in no hurry and the pace of any policy tightening will be very gradual.
** UK/Eurozone - April Services PMIs **
- Final Eurozone PMIs are expected to be confirmed, though there would appear to be some scope for a marginal upward revision in Germany, in so far as the dip to 54.7 (vs. March 55.6) appeared to be 'out of sync' with both the Manufacturing PMI and above all the very solid Ifo Business Climate. But the primary point of interest will be whether Spain matches February's 20 month high of 57.7 as forecasts anticipate, and whether Italy's Services sees the rebound to 53.6, after a relatively sharp setback to 52.9 from February's 54.1, thus echoing the better tone in Manufacturing PMI. After a big jump in the UK Manufacturing PMI and a slightly better than forecast Construction PMI, the risks would appear to lie firmly to the upside of the expected slip to 54.5 from March's 55.0 (remembering that this survey does not cover the Retail Sector).
** U.K. - March Consumer Credit / Mortgage Lending **
- As the weakness in the Personal Consumption of the provisional Q1 GDP data highlighted, the BoE rate cut inspired consumer spending 'boom' following the Brexit referendum appears to have hit a speed bump, with the breakneck speed of Consumer Credit growth (last 10.5% y/y) seemingly unsustainable, let alone unhealthy, when compared to the modest growth in Average Earnings. Forecasts assume a setback in March to £1.2 Bln from £1.4 Bln for Consumer Credit, and a similarly sized dip in Mortgage Lending to £3.3 Bln, doubtless predicated on the weak Retail Sales data, which were at least in part due to Easter timing effects.
** U.S.A. - Claims, Trade Balance & Productivity **
- It would be easy to over-extrapolate last week's Claims as signalling a potential turn in the labour market, given that it was the first time in 5 months that Claims have risen for 2 consecutive weeks, and the first time in four months that Claims were above the level in the equivalent week of 2016. However it would require a much longer run to genuinely suggest an inflection point, and the consensus looks for a dip to 248K (vs. 257K). The Trade Balance tends to garner less attention since the introduction of the advance Goods Trade Balance, which widened modestly to $-64.8 Bln from February's $-63.9 Bln, with the consensus looking for a similar sized widening in today's reading to $-44.5 Bln. Both Exports and Imports are expected to rebound from February's fall, but still leave Net Exports making a modest contribution to Q1 GDP. Unsurprisingly, given the very soft Q1 GDP reading, Q1 Productivity is expected to dip 0.1% after finally showing some improvement in H2 2016, but more attention will be given to Unit Labour Costs which are expected to accelerate to 2.7% from 1.7% in Q4, in no small part predicated on last week's Employment Cost Index pick-up to 0.8% q/q, which broke a long run of readings that were mostly 0.5%/0.6%, and this will definitely have seen by the FOMC as underlining the strength of the labour market
from Marc Ostwald
Friday's Payrolls; UK/Eurozone Services PMI, UK Credit and Auto Sales,
US Trade, Claims and Productivity also due, ECB speakers, rate meetings
in Norway and Czech Republic, more earnings and UK, French & Spanish
bond sales
- Norges Bank: on hold and likely to avoid any signal on rates that might
strengthen NOK
- Czech CNB: seen on hold after dropping EUR/CZK cap, likely to be
relieved that govt resignation restrained Crown rise
- UK Services PMI: solid Manufacturing & Construction PMIs suggest
scope for upside surprise, against expectations of a dip
- UK Consumer Credit: borrowing expected to dip mirroring soft Retail Sales
- US Non-farm Productivity seen dropping on back of weak GDP, focus on
Unit Labour Costs
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As much as today's schedule is not short of statistical, central bank and earnings highlights, these all fall in the hiatus between the FOMC meeting and tomorrow's US labour data, and as such bear the burden of needing to surprise to inspire any reaction, and will in any case be overshadowed by the vote on the US Health Care Act in Congress. Services PMIs from the UK, Eurozone and Asia are accompanied by UK monetary and credit aggregates, US and Canadian Trade, US Weekly jobless claims, Q1 Productivity and Factory Orders. On the central bank front, there are a number of ECB speakers, while central banks in Norway and the Czech Republic are set to keep policy on hold, and Spain, France and the UK all hold govt bond auctions. In terms of the central bank meetings, this is not a Norges Bank policy report meeting, and unsurprisingly rates are seen on hold at 0.50%, even if recent data and a marked drop in the NOK vs. EUR offer some grounds for a less accommodative message; however Norges Bank will more than likely want to avoid prompting a reversal of the NOK's drop since the March meeting, and per se will likely send a cautious message on the outlook. The CNB holds its first meeting since dropping the EUR/CZK cap, and the resignation of the government, it is also due to update its economic forecasts, with rates seen on hold at 0.05% at this meeting and for the rest of 2017. Given the weight of positioning ahead of removing the 27.00 cap, the CNB will be relieved that there was a) only a limited squeze in reaction, and b) that the fall of the government reversed much of the rise; it will certainly confirm that while it expects to hike rates, it is in no hurry and the pace of any policy tightening will be very gradual.
** UK/Eurozone - April Services PMIs **
- Final Eurozone PMIs are expected to be confirmed, though there would appear to be some scope for a marginal upward revision in Germany, in so far as the dip to 54.7 (vs. March 55.6) appeared to be 'out of sync' with both the Manufacturing PMI and above all the very solid Ifo Business Climate. But the primary point of interest will be whether Spain matches February's 20 month high of 57.7 as forecasts anticipate, and whether Italy's Services sees the rebound to 53.6, after a relatively sharp setback to 52.9 from February's 54.1, thus echoing the better tone in Manufacturing PMI. After a big jump in the UK Manufacturing PMI and a slightly better than forecast Construction PMI, the risks would appear to lie firmly to the upside of the expected slip to 54.5 from March's 55.0 (remembering that this survey does not cover the Retail Sector).
** U.K. - March Consumer Credit / Mortgage Lending **
- As the weakness in the Personal Consumption of the provisional Q1 GDP data highlighted, the BoE rate cut inspired consumer spending 'boom' following the Brexit referendum appears to have hit a speed bump, with the breakneck speed of Consumer Credit growth (last 10.5% y/y) seemingly unsustainable, let alone unhealthy, when compared to the modest growth in Average Earnings. Forecasts assume a setback in March to £1.2 Bln from £1.4 Bln for Consumer Credit, and a similarly sized dip in Mortgage Lending to £3.3 Bln, doubtless predicated on the weak Retail Sales data, which were at least in part due to Easter timing effects.
** U.S.A. - Claims, Trade Balance & Productivity **
- It would be easy to over-extrapolate last week's Claims as signalling a potential turn in the labour market, given that it was the first time in 5 months that Claims have risen for 2 consecutive weeks, and the first time in four months that Claims were above the level in the equivalent week of 2016. However it would require a much longer run to genuinely suggest an inflection point, and the consensus looks for a dip to 248K (vs. 257K). The Trade Balance tends to garner less attention since the introduction of the advance Goods Trade Balance, which widened modestly to $-64.8 Bln from February's $-63.9 Bln, with the consensus looking for a similar sized widening in today's reading to $-44.5 Bln. Both Exports and Imports are expected to rebound from February's fall, but still leave Net Exports making a modest contribution to Q1 GDP. Unsurprisingly, given the very soft Q1 GDP reading, Q1 Productivity is expected to dip 0.1% after finally showing some improvement in H2 2016, but more attention will be given to Unit Labour Costs which are expected to accelerate to 2.7% from 1.7% in Q4, in no small part predicated on last week's Employment Cost Index pick-up to 0.8% q/q, which broke a long run of readings that were mostly 0.5%/0.6%, and this will definitely have seen by the FOMC as underlining the strength of the labour market
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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ftse in supp now....will it hold ..??
G'day all,
Ftse sp 7250 zone....should hold if the bulls are in...looking at 7290-7300 if so
WTI looking interesting....poss swing long 4730 zone
cable looking at settling back 1.2850 for a bit..could rangebound to 1.29...who knows...we live in interesting times lol
Ftse sp 7250 zone....should hold if the bulls are in...looking at 7290-7300 if so
WTI looking interesting....poss swing long 4730 zone
cable looking at settling back 1.2850 for a bit..could rangebound to 1.29...who knows...we live in interesting times lol
locked in a few from the bounce...off 7251..see if we have a retrace off 7260 and to what level...all clues...
Dentalfloss
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yes sir
horizontal count targets hit
Dentalfloss
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yes sirDAX into the open
As we said yesterday..there was still room to go up as horizontal count target had not been reached
TV debate on French tv last night could have sent it up a tad..?? who knows
Dentalfloss
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pretty accurate count
Dentalfloss
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dax...whackin the bears...lol
Dentalfloss
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time for tea and biscuits
ftse...decent move to 7275 from sp and made a few...?cable.. not sure it made a big impact as moves seem to be to/at technical levels..
Ftse heading back to sp 7255ish for this arvo fun and games..
WTI Oil quite a dump to below 47..see if 4680 holds.. did try a long @4730 and got stopped out without too much damage (learnt my lesson last time with WTI)
Think I'll stick with the ftse for now... lol
Dentalfloss
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the volatility is supposed to be after the French election...lol
Moneylender
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Its oil screwing the Dow
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
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- 3,726
uso in horizontal supp
Moneylender
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Oil still doing the business
