COMMENT: There were no real surprises in the statement, which was carefully crafted to acknowledge what the FOMC suggested were 'transitory' weaknesses in personal consumption and core inflation, while placing particular emphasis on the pick-up in business investment and the strength of the labour market. As suggested in the preview, the Fed is clearly determined to lead markets in terms of the policy outlook, rather than being led by them (above all in reaction to any weak data), as was the case for much of the past 3 years, and this puts even greater emphasis on the Fed's rhetoric in the few weeks immediately before the June 13-14 meeting. The remaining text, including the passage on its balance sheet was left unchanged, as was to be expected. Markets can now focus on today's Health Care Act vote in Congress, which now appears to have the necessary votes for approval, and would eminently represent a victory for Trump after a series of defeats, along with tomorrow's labour data. In theory, it should also offer some fiscal 'room for manoeuvre' to implement some of the tax reform package. However whether this can reignite market sentiment about the Trump-flation trade is debatable, above all given the Chinese authorities less accommodative credit stance, and their broader efforts to clamp down on leverage in the economy.
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Marc Ostwald
Strategist
ADM Investor Services International