Trading the SPX

A closer look at the wave IV were in at the moment...

The delta hints at an expanded flat or a triangle pattern with the high around the FED meeting at the start of May...
 

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Bez said:
60 min full count...

I'm out of my depth in these markets.

I can appreciate £ hitting the $2 mark but these market highs in the indeces are quite something else. Don't understand it.

:confused:
 
Bez said:
Atilla remember this post :?:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=320406&postcount=1317

Its just the basic delta long term points its been saying in needed a new high into late April early May Time..

Yes I do and can recognise it as the 4 year cycle LTD.

It's just realisation on my part the amazing aspect of Delta Phenomenon and it's predictive power. I was expecting it to fall. I'll put fundamental analysis behind me. :eek:

Many thanks Bez. :)
 
It maps the 18 point seasonal long that last delta chart.. The next higher frame up is the Long term as you say. Under delta rules a Higher frame must come in with a lower frame so the odds always favoured a new high due to the fact the Feb high is a bit to early for the LTD when the Super long frame is up.

:)
 
Bez said:
Update on that EW....

:?:

my take on things.
I would consider the red line to provide strong resistance to the upward movement especially since it is combined with an ABCD.
The fact that , on the way, up the SPX made a stop on the brown line, enhances the above possibility. The fib. ratios add validity as well.
One last thing but most important.
We trade probabilities not certainties
D.
 

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Hi debbie its a very viable count you have the other option is this...

We could go into a lesser wave iv of the C wave to then go on & complete the larger degree 1:1 @ 1484 area...:?:

The wave iv count is incorrect below 1459...

Edit put a clearer high time frame chart up...
 

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Don't know if this is mere coincidence but look at the bounces with respect to the top.

Gap fill at 1462 by the weekend?

I see the 1:1 lurking at 1492 (ES) ...though fwiw YM has already completed one.
 

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Bez said:
Hi debbie its a very viable count you have the other option is this...

We could go into a lesser wave iv of the C wave to then go on & complete the larger degree 1:1 @ 1484 area...:?:

Hi Bez,
I have been following your posts and are most impressive, although my take on Delta is elementary and I do not follow Elliott waves. I use very simple things, price and time patterns
Starting from the premice that anything can happen in the market, I will agree that your version is possible.
I rarely look at the SPX, mostly I look at the ES and there I have drawn an ABCD with a not so nice ratio but which finishes at the green rectangle. For me at that area I can take the risk and short the future, always with the tight stop loss. This is not the best pattern to enter but I can live with the risk
D.
ps. how do attach thumbnails? It is much nicer the way you do it.
 

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Bez said:
Hi debbie its a very viable count you have the other option is this...

We could go into a lesser wave iv of the C wave to then go on & complete the larger degree 1:1 @ 1484 area...:?:

The wave iv count is incorrect below 1459...

Edit put a clearer high time frame chart up...

Bez,
By the way, doesn't the Delta/ Market Matrix expect a high around this period?
 
I can see you 1:1 ratio at the of your chart ( the 2 green lines) into the rectangle..

The Shorter Delta time frames are hinting at lower prices tomorrow as we've had 4 highs in a row..The big question is it a wave 4 or the start of something bigger...:)

Just save your chart as a JPEG instead of the standard Esignal png & your charts will display like mine..

Thanks for the kind words :)
 
It does ...We have a Medium frame coming into play....

The problem is the next higher frame the seasonal Long is up which tends to drag the lower frames late or just on time & that window is nomally around the 24th of April..

:)
 
Bez said:
It does ...We have a Medium frame coming into play....

The problem is the next higher frame the seasonal Long is up which tends to drag the lower frames late or just on time & that window is nomally around the 24th of April..

:)
I was going to give it till today ,19th, and allow the time period to be streched till the 20th. You are prepared to wait till next Tuesday if I understand you properly. Probably you are right
 
sorry, I forgot.
Could you post a chart showing the Delta time frames you mentioned above but on a 60min or a daily chart?
thanks
D.
 
This is what I see on the mini Dow. I may be wrong but I cannot see it on the ES. However, I do not think these two can work separately.
 

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Debbie, excuse my ignorance, but are the numbers 1.83, 1.87 etc. ratios of price moves. And are these significant numbers? And what does the D signify - A is up, B is correction, and C is up again but Ds seem to mark possible tops.

Bez, The ballistic breakout in the semiconductors today makes me think we might head higher for a few days now, perhaps into next Thursday, before a major correction. This seems to tally with your wave (C) in your 60 min chart though (maybe with a little correction before it), but it doesn't seem to tally with your higher frame chart which says we're going to yo-yo about for a few days now. Now that I think of it, this might be possible to tempt shorters back in before this final wave up.

I guess what I'm basically saying is what in the theory says we're going to pause at this important juncture rather than just blast right through hang around for a few days at or just under 1500 and then plummet till the end of the year! :^D
 
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Chocolate said:
Debbie, excuse my ignorance, but are the numbers 1.83, 1.87 etc. ratios of price moves. And are these significant numbers? And what does the D signify - A is up, B is correction, and C is up again but Ds seem to mark possible tops.

Bez, The ballistic breakout in the semiconductors today makes me think we might head higher for a few days now, perhaps into next Thursday, before a major correction. This seems to tally with your wave (C) in your 60 min chart though (maybe with a little correction before it), but it doesn't seem to tally with your higher frame chart which says we're going to yo-yo about for a few days now. Now that I think of it, this might be possible to tempt shorters back in before this final wave up.

I guess what I'm basically saying is what in the theory says we're going to pause at this important juncture rather than just blast right through hang around for a few days at or just under 1500 and then plummet till the end of the year! :^D

Does anybody else see H&S on the hourly ( 1 - 4 hr ) charts?

I think we may have a drop to 1455...
 
I don't know if it will plummet till the end of the year though...:?:

It has two options either a Expanded flat or a triangle...The traiangle will take up a lot of time but less on price while the flat will be a swift move down but take less in time...

My old flat count & the triangle...
 

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