Trading the SPX

[Racer]

corrective action sahould end monday and not exceed 1208

Well my suggestion for Monday is trading around the flat point all day

 

[kevinmcm]

Afternoon. After yesterdays pump higher, I see a pullback before a further push 1230 area as a min, 1228-1226 area perhaps if it sneaks down past that level.

 

[kevinmcm]

An obvious channel is in play, which should make it easier to figure out the correct play.

1. Up over 1134ish

2. Head to bottom of cannel, just under 1230

3. Move back to 1226 if lower channel is taken out

 

[GKB]

Almost in the area of the fourth wave low.

Hi Joules,
re. Chatroom discussion, past couple of days. As you know I follow the Dow but the pattern looks very similar to the S&P.

It looks, imo that we are indeed around a fourth wave low. If so the fifth would top perhaps around 10,700 or so. Two points though ...

1) I think that this could well be (iv) of a larger degree 3rd wave which has run (if I'm right) from late Tuesday 30th August. (iv) = (ii) in time.

2) Despite the above, it would be "better" if (iv) were a flat / running corrective to alternate from (ii) which was an 80 point (50%) retrace.

Be interested to see what happens when / if we see 10640/50 today. Thinking for a day trade short around there. Tight stops (unusual for me) this time Might be nice to short from 10700 later on, DV!

Regards,

Graham

 

[Racer]

Hi Joules,
re. Chatroom discussion, past couple of days. As you know I follow the Dow but the pattern looks very similar to the S&P.

S&P top component weights 12 out of 14 are also on the Dow

 

[GKB]

Hi J,

here's my 10p worth

 

[roguetrader]

Glad to see you're still jabbing and moving Joules :cheesy: Hope August was kind to you.

 

[roguetrader]

THERE-YOU-ARE.......mystery boy........and a fistful of dollars to you too, mate



C u in the live room...and no Barry Manilow songs ok

Been away on holiday for the month, so haven't been playing in the market, just reviewing the charts now to see what has been happening, everything looks to be about where it was b4 I went despite all the dramas.

 

[Racer]

XOM.. top weight on S&P.. is neg so that isn't helping the upside

 

[frugi]

Spx 1255

 

[Racer]

Spx 1255

too good to be true?

yes

 

[kevinmcm]

Quote:
Originally Posted by frugi
Spx 1255

too good to be true?

yes

Starting to look that way, consensus turning to pullback but with higher move to come. This morning the gap around 1237 has been covered so if it hangs around here by the open I would expect a quick move back to at least 1238.5, possibly to top of the channel around 1241.

 

[kevinmcm]

SPX gone south by more than I figured on. Needs to get moving soon or the selling will pull it back to 1230-1227. Couple of gaps on 5 min chart from the opening slide which says to me that any further slide will not go too far and should go back to cover these gaps in the days ahead.

 

[kevinmcm]

Gaps filled. Shorts heavily squeazed. Put/call ratio running high. Volumes are relatively light until this afternoon with good positive inflow.

Fibonacci time frame on time in the DJIND with 21 days don from the recent high and 8 days to todays retreat.

An ending pattern underway.

I have one more gap @1240.2 and of course the sudden move up has left two more below, fairly typical expiry week.

Mistake today was longing ahead of the open expeting the opening move to be up. out now but sweated on it for a bit. i'm short now and will be for a few days unless 1244 is taken out.

 

[kevinmcm]

I see gaps below (1236, 1227.7 & 1226.5 ) and with max pain down near 1220, feel that the move up will have to wait a few days more. That doesn't include the 1 min gaps.

Would you really be surprised if it saw the low 1220s, when the post holiday fed pump kicked in?

 

[kevinmcm]

Covered short from last night. Not clear to me where the next move will take it, so standing aside until it becomes clearer.

Could unwind selling today and restest 1237/8 area and then slide. Gap at 1240 and the two down around 1227 to keep an eye on.

A slide under 1231 which now looks like the pivotal area would cement the move to 1227 or lower for me.

 

[kevinmcm]

XJO cycle 144 Oct 8th. Threes in progress.

Hi Joules, what does that mean? Who/what is XJO?

 

[Racer]

The prices paid index soared to 53.41 from 29.00 in August, while the prices received index moved back into positive territory with a reading of 10.23 from -1.00 in August, showing that manufacturers have not been fully able to pass on costs.

 

[Racer]

So the market has put its bulls specs on again, and seeing no problems, but bears can be patient before they attack :cheesy:

A few comments by companies saying margins squeezed and not able to pass on costs, then more and more .........

or pass on costs and prices of everything goes up.. ooops all prices going up everywhere..oh dear, better put up interest rates even more.

Those airlines bankruptcies could be the beginning

 

[Racer]

thank you for the chart Joules, I have also been very keen to follow that market because as you say it has been in a true bull run for a long time now