Trading the SPX

[Racer]

Wednesday's durables report showed drops in nearly all categories of goods.

Demand decreased in July for computers and electronics by 5.9%.

Primary metals orders rose 1.1%. But fabricated metals were down 4.4%. Machinery tumbled 6.2%. Orders eased 2.0% for electrical equipment.

Transportation orders decreased by 8.6%, after dropping 1.6% in June. Demand for motor vehicles and parts rose 1.5% last month, but civilian plane orders plunged 20.2%, and orders for military aircraft fell by 5.0%.

Excluding transportation, orders for other goods fell by 3.2% in July.

Capital goods orders decreased by 8.3% after rising 0.2% in June. Non-defense capital goods - items meant to last 10 years or more - fell by 7.3% last month.

Defense-related capital goods orders tumbled 16.6%.

Excluding defense items, all other durables would have gone down 4.5% last month. Ex-defense orders rose 1.1% in June.

Durable-goods inventories of manufacturers increased 0.6% last month. Unfilled orders rose 1.0%. Shipments dipped 0.1%.

 

[vocalist]

Markets go up on bad news and down on good news

Yes Joules,that probably has something to do with the fact that bad news as you know is taken as positive and that there will be a slowdown of interest rate rises but imo this will all change if the numbers coming out gradually get consistently worse and the masses realise that yes, we may have a a slowdown in interest rate cuts but what we have then is a badly deteriorating economy.Then the market will drop on any news.

 

[cj12]

Thanks for not replying to my question Joules

 

[hornblower]

interesting day !!

 

[Minder]

Corrective action within a larger degree corrective pattern is messy stuff and fine for a practised disciplinarian and for those who are cognizent of their current knowledge and disciplines I commend sitting out and recording as much as you can.

That was good advice and I acted on it. Thanks.

I don't like these moves around what is supposed to be support. No definite direction either way. Best staying out.

 

[hornblower]

Thanks for all that Joules
when I read your posts
I realise how little i know
but please keep telling me these things , and I will learn
I make a few points every day , but never hold over night
thanks for sharing your knowledge with us

 

[Racer]

This chart shows the relationship between interest rates and stocks over time. Click anywhere on the S&P 500 chart to see what the yield curve looked like at that time. Use the Date slider to move back and forth through time.

Yield curve

 

[Racer]

We need more hands to the pump, quick, the 1200 level approaches

 

[Racer]

not bad though

 

[kevinmcm]

Plunge Protection Team? What PPT?

What absolute drivel !

Joules, for every article that says they dont exist there is another saying they do. To what extent the PPT operates I haven't a clue but I do think the market can be and is pushed one way or another. Curbs are used to control the markets (up & down) so who is to say there is no definite use of other means to control a plunging market? Also, who knows how much impact they could have had pre-87 crashes as it didn't exist before then.

 

[Minder]

Whether one exists or not is not really my issue. What does disturb me is that one can entertain and be clear that it's entertainment or one may become a professional investigator /journalist and find out or one can ignore the whole affair and trade well or one can dither away time ponerding on forces that may or may not exist. Which one do you think is profitable?

Maybe an alternative is; which one are you good at and which one you prefer to be good at?

An underestanding of so much information is necessary to be able to trade successfully. How do the uninformed discern what is real from what is just a distraction ?

PPT ? It is irrelevant if such a group exists or not. Temporary and Permanent Open Market Operations ? They exist and are a regular part of the operation of the Federal Reserve in the execution of monetary policy. Likewise Term Investment Options from the US Treasury. Do these operations impact the markets ? I haven't a clue. Due to my lack of experience ? Or due to my lack of understanding ?

So they become a distraction because I have no way of assessing the information available and drawing a correlation with the behaviour of the markets. Yet there are traders who will swear that a correlation exists.

Who to believe ?

Does it help me make money ? The data can be made to fit the action of the market from time to time, but that is true of any data. The market cannot be fully defined by a few lines drawn on a chart, or a set of calculations, or a schedule of repurchase agreements.

For all those that swear a correlation exists, there are many more that will never heard of these operations, and are still very successful.

How do I discern what is important from what is a distraction ?

 

[Racer]

Yes Joules (see my comments on the Dow thread re PPT) it makes for a superb get out excuse for terrrible trading and great conspiracy theory...

they are all out to get me......

 

[Racer]

the media focuses on all the reasons why the market should be going down such as oil and high water.

Hmm, that is a good reason for it to go up cos media is such good source of unbiased and informed news

 

[kevinmcm]

I'm not sure we will see a move past 1205/6 today. Small gap down in that area but a bigger gap above @1211-1212.3 approx. Playing the patience game as always, would prefer a drop first, 3 day/ 5min chart look ready to pulback about here.

I see a gap just under 1206.5, one at 1205 and that pullback has left one at 1208.3, will stick my neck out and say that 1205 will hold for a move back to 1212.5ish.

 

[kevinmcm]

Flip side for me anyway is that 1205 being taken out by more than a point or so implies a test of yesterdays lows, maybe 1197 or lower..

 

[kevinmcm]

Out for now as well. Think it will pullback now that the bigger gap has been covered, looking at 1207.5 - 1208.5 for another entry. Then it should continue up to 1220ish

 

[kevinmcm]

I agree, has the feel of wanting up but cant quite muster enough strength. Been looking at the 7 day chart and see res around 1214.5, 23/08 support at 1214.4, res just under that value on Monday. So, if it does turn up and I expect it will from 2/3 points lower 1214.5 looks like the line to cross for a bigger move up, otherwise failure there shows further weakness. Watching and waiting..

 

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Racer
This chart shows the relationship between interest rates and stocks over time. Click anywhere on the S&P 500 chart to see what the yield curve looked like at that time. Use the Date slider to move back and forth through time.
Yield curve

You know, all good musicians like their inversions but the one looming on that page aint pretty at all ..........

Just catching up with markets, have had connection problems all day due to thunderstorms.

Yield curve steepened today

 

[kevinmcm]

No position at the moment. Looking for a slight bump up at the open then a retrace to 1217.80 - 1216.2, possibly as low as 1214.9 which would fit nicely with the res/support around that area over the last week.

Equates approx to a pullback on DOW of 25-40 points (back to 10440ish) , if it goes further to the 1214/15 area then its around 50/60 points.

General mood is up into Friday so really only expecting a small pullback and would be surprised if 1216 was taken out.

Small gap at 1218.5 and 1213 on 5min chart.

 

[Racer]

Personal saving rate negative and lowest since 1959.
Yes very good I must say.

Heard a comment on TV this morning by someone in a spreadbet company when they were discussing where the markets would open this morning, he said econonomics had nothing to do with these markets.

Hmmm.. slip of the tongue?