Trading the ES (E mini S&P) November 2003

[stoploss please]

Hmmm??

Sand

On the below chart.

A. The PREM was falling but the cash makes a HL at 10.15 EST.
B. We get our rising bottoms.
C. Trendline break as PREM catches up to cash.

Is this how you see it.

Cheers
Andy

 

[sandpiper]

Stoploss,

Yep.

 

[stoploss please]

And

Cheers Sand

At 15.25 the Tick broke beneath support but this was probably engineered by the big boy as the PREM was already making HLs.

 

[stoploss please]

This is like a good old game of backgammon.

 

[sandpiper]

Stoploss,

Don't know about whether the move in TICK was engineered or not. However, it didn't look that weak.

Good spot on the 10:15 cash HL, + prem level/pattern btw. Your view of the "strong" cash was also supported by a good TICK. 10:32 retrace in TICK was a good additional point of reference for an entry (imo) with -e-prem also below fv.

This is an interesting move this morning (in terms of discussion). On my chart prem looks a bit peaky above fair value at about 10:38 when it looks like a buy program(s) were triggered. Then again around 10:58, at which point the cash went "parabollic" (for want of a better term). Prem predominantly stayed above fair value whilst the cash made that parabollic move (I would guess looking at it that the cause was non-arbitrage based buy programs) and then the enevitable happened, i.e the buy program(s) retraced completely, i.e false move.

 

[china white]

Stoplloss,

any time mate - pls fire away any Qs. I'll be happy to help.

as for Friday's price action - I doubt if it was 'action" at all . One S @ 11:00 at about 1059.75 on a Tick neg sequence with a tight stop 1.5 pts above (no Macd of Comp neg div vs. Comp + Tick constantly > 0) wud give a boring win of up to 2.5 pts. The author took 1.5 pts and said "ciao" to November. Was not worth trading at all....

 

[china white]

BTW

Just heard from me old china that TradePortal is finally rolling out futures trading with the lowest intraday margin requirements - USD 500 - yes just a monkey for BOTH ES and NQ!!!! Overnight margin will be same as in IB - USD 4000. Apparently they r getting into biz in a week or two latest.

Talking about increased leverage..... u don't even need to trade options on such a leverage, especially on NQ!

www.TradePortal.com. Probably worth taking a butcher's.

 

[mombasa]

Hi Chaps,

Been skimmimg thru this thread for the last cpl of days trying to figure out what u is on abt

Finally beginning to see the light .... had a look at the Mohan site - interesting stuff - might sign up for a trial period.

However, have finally clicked with Chartman's DOW strategy and am not about to give that all up.

Still, always worth looking at other things to see if they can help, so many thanks for this thread.

gmca686: "I have made 154 trades and made 3,077 points profit. "

That makes 19 points per trade - doesn't compute - or am I missing somfing here?

Rgds

 

[sandpiper]

mombasa,

I think gmca686 is talking about the old s&p handles so 1 point = 1 large S&P tick, i.e a tenth. D4F (which I think he still uses) prices S&P rolling cash in 10ths as well.

Well, that's what I'm assuming anyway.

gmca, please correct me if I is wrong on this.

307 points is still good going. Jeez if it was 3077 big ones I'd be bashing down Mohan's door meself.

 

[china white]

Gmca, fully agree with sand, brilliant, I'd say "surgical" trading!

 

[mombasa]

Thx Sand

 

[hillbillie]

BIX

Why BIX and not BKX (Phily Bank Index)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...10,30,10!la65,90,12!lah65,90,12][J10832595,Y]

 

[china white]

well, hillbillie - just for the sake of consistency, if u r looking for a leader within S&P500 index, u may want to use S&P Bank Index (BIX)

I just compared BIX's and BKX's betas and implied volatilities - they shud be just as good for the purposes of leadership within blue chips.

 

[jonnyy40]

Anyone use ES futures options?How have you found it in comparison to just trading straight?

 

[china white]

jonnyy40,

I do. U get increased leverage with front-end options by a huge multiplier. However, I wud not recommend touching derivatives before u r completely comfortable with trading futs.

 

[stoploss please]

China

Hi mate, I am happy with your method, just want you to define the zones of activity. I have

0 to 300 = Neutral or bearish Resistance
300 to 600 = Moderate bullish,
600 to 900 = Bullish
900 to 1200 = Extremely bullish. If we spike there may be a fade out.

0 to -300 = Neutral or bullish support
-300 to -600 = Moderate bearish
-600 to -900 = Bearish
-900 to -1200 = Extremely bearish but spike down may be a fade up.

Now I suppose we can reverse scalp against the trend above and below the zero line. Is there a zone which works best for bullish or bearish reversal change of trends. I have a feeling you are probably going to say that this cannot be defined.

Cheers
Andy

 

[china white]

matey

very generally - yes

however I believe u r still a tiny bit confused about this latest addition to our system

it is still my strong belief that the absolute value of tick is largely meaningless. Let me give u an absurd example. say u've got Tick of +300. It can be 100 major cap stocks ticking down with 400 small beer stocks ticking up, or 400 larger cap stocks charging up on the tick with 100 smallest beer ones declining. Quite different set-ups with the same absolute value of Tick innit?

All my latest addition to the system is about - is that if u get a "proper" tick neg div sequence - BUT over the entire time of this sequence Tick never tanks below 0 (there r always more advancers than decliners) u need to tighten yr stoploss on yr Short from my usual 3.25 pts to 1.5 pts as the chances of that being just a "bull flag" and mrkt inflecting to the upside hugely increase. And it is perhaps just part of a larger tick neg div sequence in the making. THIS NEW ADDITION TO OUR SYS IS JUST FINE TUNING OF STOPLOSS MANAGEMENT!

However, I'd agree with u that on extreme readings of Tick (>1100) it is a reasonable scalp for 1.5 pts to reverse. I'd strongly advise hvng a tight stoploss on it, which of coz u can move in yr direction if it is more than just a scalp.

Matey - let me tell u something on a bigger pic. Why stoploss management is so important to me. I am fully convinced that successful trading is not about how much u make but about how much of that u keep - which in its essence is how much u lose Hv u ever read the book called "Three Comrades" by Erich-Maria Remarck? There was a chap in that book who had bn a successful trader up until 1929, when he got washed out buying on extreme oversld readings? I bet he was fading Tick below -1200!

cheers
Martin

 

[china white]

BTW - as i mentioned in 1 of my posts about a month ago:

If there was Modified Tick - Tick weighed either by Volume traded on the tick, or even better, by Cap of "ticking" stocks its absolute value wud bear much more significance.

That'd be a brilliant project to create such indicator. it'd definitely require quite a bit of programming skills. let me know if some1 wud be up for that

 

[stoploss please]

China

I know someone who could probably do it.

We should talk.