Trading systems

[CityTrader]

I posted this in another thread, but it's probably better here under it's own title......

Why on earth would ANYONE really sell a system that works? think about it , "system that works". Those last three words. If you had a system that worked, would you really sell it? Would you really run the risk of every nobrainer buying the system and then front running the signals, constantly undercutting each other trying to get in and out before the rest of the followers got in and out???? Would you really sell it for $100 or $1,000 or $10,000 a time? You'd sell it once, for a serious sum of money, and NEVER sell it again. Think about it guys, logically. There is no easy way to making money. Simple.

 

[Finlayson]

I can see the point of 'leasing' a system to a limited number for royalty style income as in the 'mastermind principle'.

but I struggle to see why u would want or need to make a 'good system ' available for general sale

not sure how an open knowledge of a system would affect its results over time..........never really thought about this one

 

[JonnyT]

Hi wayno,

As regards S&P systems there are a few that have stood the test of time. They tend to be volatility breakout systems such as Cyclone and one from Larry Williams.

They do suffer bad periods for example the last three months but long term I expect they will continue to perform given the very nature of markets and humans.

Once again it's down to buying strength and selling weakness.

Have a look at www.futurestruth.com some good stuff there.

For a very sucessful S&P system (and not a volatility breakout one) have a look at www.index-trader.com

Very simply and very profitable over the past 4 years.

JonnyT

 

[Trader333]

Jonny T' Genius,

Do you know what the drawdown on the index-trader system was ?

Cheers


Paul

 

[JonnyT]

Hi Paul,

All the trades are published on the web site www.index-trader.com Real life performance that matches the published results can be observed at www.striker.com

$200 a month if you are interested...

Enter at start of day, 6 point stop loss, trades around 10 times pcm.

JonnyT

 

[Trader333]

Hi Jonny,

Thanks


Paul

 

[fudgestain]

That answer, Wayno, as you identify, is that no one would sell a system that offered the way to amass gains with confidence and consistently accrue such gains. Jacking around trying to sell it for money would be a diversion likely only to produce peanuts.

The relevant and logical development is staking your bets at higher and higher rates in line with the total of your gains added to your original capital. You are then steering a course of continually increasing your rate of gain.

Now this doesn't happen for 2 reasons: the stream of (net) gains is used to provide your income; and systems in general do not have high enough levels of probability in their operation.

 

[CityTrader]

Also, I'd like to think that any system that worked ( NONE OF THEM CAN) would be sold once, to Fidelity, or Goldman's, or Deutsche Bank. why on earth would you bother selling it to the man in the street.

Has anyone on this board, bought such a "guaranteed system" ? come on, now's the time to own up.

 

[rglenn]

I have bought loads of horseracing systems which wasn't worth Jack!

I find trading a whole lot easier(i.e a 3 horse race)- and seeing what I got for my money in my previous venture- I am not about to repeat the same mistakes.

What a load of money££££££££

 

[JonnyT]

Fidelity etc, couldn't trade these systems as they are simply too big.

Rejoice that the little man does have some advantages in life.

JonnyT

 

[CityTrader]

Jonnyt, ok maybe not Fidelity- how about MarshallWace? or Meditor?

Come on punters, own up. It's the first step of the self-help program- admitting your mistakes!

 

[Finlayson]

not a trading system , but I did subscribe to a 'share tip ' system.

sounds cynical bit it just seemed a case of price ramping so the poor mugs(me included) were buying the shares on the monday at a ramped price.

maybe it worked over time, but I think the most valuable thing I learnt from it was not to buy tips & learn for yourself.

it did lead me to 'trading ' so for that I am grateful.

Jason

 

[CityTrader]

JayGe - my experience of tips, is that it's easy for some guy/tipster/punter down the pub, to put you into something, but they very rarely remember to get you out....

 

[JonnyT]

Anyone who wants the PGO system can download from here:

http://ngms27.users.btopenworld.com/

JonnyT

 

[peugots]

Re: PGO system

JonnyT,



Thanks for being kind enough to post the link to your work.

Could you explain what the PGO system is please because I dont have any idea what its for, or indeed those documents on the link.



Thanks in advance.

 

[JonnyT]

Hi peugots,

The PGO is a sytem for trading commodities. It is a long term trend following strategy so has a win ratio < 50%. The spreadsheet is not mine and was picked up from a group on Yahoo.

I beleive entries are based on an 89 Simple Moving Average and price moving 3 Average True Ranges away for the average. Trades are taken in the direction of the movement until the price closes the opposite side of the 89 SMA. Someone on the Yahoo group said this is close to the Aberration trading system but I don't know if that is true or not as I do not have the rules for Aberration. Either way it has beacktested very very well.

JonnyT

 

[Bigbusiness]

JonnyT,

Aberration is described here:-

http://groups.google.com/groups?hl=...8&scoring=d&[email protected]

 

[Josh M.]

I just met Keith last week and it was interesting hearing what he had to say. Abberation is in its largest drawdown ever but he feels it will come back.

 

[OzTradeInvestor]

Trading Systems

Forgive my first posting as a new member....but I have been investing for a few years and wish to pass on this info....>>>>>
I am becoming lazy and have been disappointed in many so-called super Trading Systems....
My Own Methods are now a result off all this effort. Breakout Systems are all I look at now..I don't want to trade all the time...Weekly charts (candlestick) of any Stock/Commodity/Index are the best ones..and you look for range-channel trading. Use of PSAR can help..also Bollinger, MAVS, Momentum etc...but it is fairly obvious as to where you should place stops (a little above/below the highest/lowest price reached in the range timeframe. Wait for the breakout. It is usually fairly easy to see whether the market will break up/down on wkly charts (?)

I now like CFDs for their all-round suitability...am with IG Markets but have not had time to trade much recently....but am interested to hear if anyone else has simplified all this...probably in much more professional manner...

All the best from Oz(TradeInvestor)

 

[billgates]

Why on earth would ANYONE really sell a system that works?

Very simple. Returns always decrease as capital grows. Say, you have a system that earns 15% a month on $10K and you estimate its returns will gradually decrease to T-bonds like returns as the capital grows to $1M. That's the price of your system: $1M.