Mp
So lets see if this daft bears got it right or at least got a rough idea how your going about getting all that nice Honey
forgive me if I am way out, its just Bears do not use much to get their daily food
see an open car window and ......Bingo .........Free lunch
Simple Bear talk, excuse me if I am wrong and off down the wrong street mp
bears, by nature of their jovial personalities and unabashed cuddliness, should have NO problems obtaining food and treats from humans or otherwise !
identify a trend channel in the long term trend with or without coloured lines
Joke
Day and 240 min chart and centre line the channel
Price leaves the edge of channel and trend is assumed to be intact and price
WILL get to the other side when the major players allow it to, which because they love money will be at news announcements so they can take full advantage:?:
CORRECTAMUNDO !
If price as not quite reached channel edge or the middle of long term trend channel, price will keep going while the major players sell strengh or vice versa until price hits R or S and reverses and starts its long journey back again.
SMART BEAR !
You are so confident in your method you choose not to employ a stop but if others were going to use one, a good place for it might be some place outside the judged Long term channel I guess = Day or 240 min :?:
would depend totally on timeframe of course !
An Ideal trade which could have a very tight stop in relation to the time frame traded and use your ideas would be ............
1. mark your long term channels off Day & 240 min
MT4 can do that or you can do manually --- I havent gotten yet to the point of where TWO LRC's meet, telling you of the new trend direction !
2. check position of price in channel
3. check for news times over the coming week and watch price making its way to long term channel edge in the Day & 240 min candle chart
4. Enter a contra trade at channel edge at or just after News when price indicates it as run into R or S, you could use a lower tf to increase accuracy perhaps :?:
lower tf ALWAYS way to go because a 240 wont show you a good entry point for that candle and your trade is entered DEPENDENT on what price has been doing last few days and ESPECIALLY an hour or so before the news --- if the price is RISING before news, it will no doubt rise to the H1 or H4 resist point on the LRC and then DROP for next few days and vice versa if the news was DROPPING prior to news.
this is not perfect if there is a slate of news coming out, as witnessed by GU activity past week, although in hindsight its easy to see what happened, during trading the longer term macd divergence is what usually saves your butt. But this is also a very RARE situation, and as long as your trades are with the major trends, you can wait out an "accident".
At this point if the trade moves against you mp I guess you to take a loser the same as us less able traders :?: or do you go out to the weeks, then the months and then the 1/4"s and look if a really large channel is working over a number of years perhaps :?:
BEFORE i take the first trade of the day, ive already done that and so armed will rarely (but certainly not always --- even the gods make mistakes on alternate months !) take a trade that may put me in danger. (LOL)
what usually saves the bacon though is the major trends (daily, weekly, monthly) are moving in different directions and so i only need to find one to play off of, even if there is a wait involved ---- additionally, i might simply be able to average up or down to take advantage of the normal 50% retracement of the price, but as this is a "defensive" trade, i have to keep abreast of it !
5. Once trades off and running and in the money you nail down to the lower tf and mark off usual R & S points etc and trade contra and try to profit on the hedge trades also :?:
completely dependent on time of day, as there are two major price (although not necessarily trend) reversals in a 24 hour day with "minor" ones approximately every hour and a half --- go ahead and count them !
depending on the currency and how the brokers are handling the contra trades, I will take a "major" reversal (its usually the next to last trade just before a major reversal when the price goes up (lets say), hits resistance on the 15 min chart, then falls to the 50% fib and moves up for its final run before the "time of day" reversal --- mostly its just watching the clock.
another thing, IF THE CURRENCY DOES NOT REVERSE AT THE NORMAL TIME, it invariably will reverse 1.5 hours later, as the banks are letting the momentum carry the trade (which is usually DAY ONE of a strong reversal move on the 10 day chart)
I only trade the weedhopper movers mp on the Ftse but I can tell you that I have no problem at all with your ideas regards price being moved around the key levels, none at all.
The problem with such ideas is if you the trader......
Think its a FACT, it may well be a fact or everything could just be random, it does not matter at all, its just like rsi or instrument divergence.
well, it tends to be fact because, like using indicators that everyone else is using, it becomes a self fullfilling prophesy. of course, just because it "tends" to be fact doesnt mean it is written in stone, BUT if one is with the trend, the trade WILL come home to roost, maybe not this hour, or even day ---- but home to roost it shall come !
What is important for anybody imho following any method is knowing when the methods bombed out so you can get out in good shape to look for the next trade with no real damage done mp
If you think something is a
Fact it will kill you dead as a Bear in hunting season
first understand bear that this is NOT a "method" per se, as im watching and taking the pulse of the market constantly from my little hovel we refer to as "corporate headquarters" --- I trade up, down and sideways dependent on where i belive the market will go and so am "adjusting" constantly.
BUT having said that, if you observe the market, the time of day of minor and major reversals, watch the LRC (trend lines and the demark work also), salute the bollinger bands at the end of a run (they are unfailingly accurate) and have some simple s+r overlays (theyre readily available as a custom indicator for the MT4 platform), youre gonna find you do really nicely.
for instance, here in the US the best trades are from 7 am EDT to noon, EDT --- after that, you brits go away to swim in your pints, and the brokers now REVERSE the prices, going short to make back the money that the retail traders made when the currency was long ---- at 5PM, EDT (rollover) things reverse again and from then until 10:30 pm, edt (asian market) its the brokers world, and all the "methods" in the world cant keep you perfectly safe as its now their ballfield, and they call the shots. Enter a trade and watch them stop short of your tp point, reverse and that point will never be hit until late at nite, when you guys get back online ---- its happened so much to me that even the normal sensible idea that NO broker really cares about my couple of lots appears not to be true --- i will intentionally open a long, find the price now reverse, open a short and watch the price come to a dead halt and then see the price trading between my two points until they are FORCED into moving one way or another --- i HAVE to enter a tp point because my broker (a russian spread better) has me on a 2 or 3 second delay and can catch almost any manual exit i try, unless i exit a few pips before the real exit point, at which point they will either be holding for the continuation of their trade, or try hard to lower my profit thru "slippage", which i watch while chuckling. Needless to say, when trading an ECN, i have no problems there !
understand though, these charts are put forth as a simple method of seeing what i speak of, and while a perfectly viable method of longer term trading, I havent brought forth the lower timeframes, which are the ones i really trade --- to see how one thing on one chart confirms or denies another chart is really the method I use --- since no sl's are being used, KNOWING whats happening and whats about to happen is of UTMOST importance, and that is where anything called a "system" shines through !
Please note that stoplosses come from the INVESTING side of the world, essentially for equities, and was used to REDUCE losses in a world where a decline in price could be for years, BUT THEY ARE NOT SUITED TO THE INDEX OR FOREX WORLD, which moves fairly rapidly in an up and downwards cycle and have approached an almost predictable status !
While my ideas (and those of MANY others) runs counter to accepted thought, after many years of trading one can see where the accepted thought may just not be very good !
as stated, if one uses the longer timeframes to establish trend, and trades the shorter timeframes WITHIN that trend, you will be way ahead of the game --- I certainly can name a number of newer traders on this site who have tried it and will trade no other way.
ONCE AGAIN --- demo it out and watch --- YOU WILL BE AMAZED BY WHAT YOU SEE !
While ALL of this might look complex, its really no more than an illustrated common sense approach to the markets movements and one can pick and choose what to add to their own personal "style" of trading --- ive been told that it contains ALL the needed ingredients for a successful trade, and my own experience bears this out --- its just trading, broken down to its individual parts and illustrated in the simplest manner i can come up with --- nothing really new there, just that i put it all together instead of breaking off pieces and making a system out of the individual pieces --- guess its just a "macro" version and most others engage in a "micro version !
The ZIGZAGS show you, in a straight line, when a trend starts and finishes, the SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE shows you . . . . . . . . . support and resistance, of course. the LRC shows you what is NORMAL top and bottom for the currency and timeframe youre working in, the ARROWS show you present tp points and future tp points (after the currency retraces from its present high, it will go to the next arrows value on the chart --- this is MARKEDLY seen on the 5 minute, where you can actually trade up to the first arrow, exit -- trade the retrace short, then re-enter for the next 10 pip runup to the NEXT ARROW, and do that repeatedly --- ALL IN A PERIOD OF 5 MINUTES OR SO and probably grabbing 15 PIPS for your troubles ! Your warning is if youre playing the 5 minute and the new arrow does NOT APPEAR ON THE 15 min chart, then you do not enter long again. And finally, the macd/ma xover can be traded by itself, or used very accurately for early warning of trend changes.
Essentially, its nothing more than how traders trade --- going from support to resistance, wherever it may be while following trend.
Bears off for Sunday dinner
Latter