Trading News with S&R

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oh grimweasel, THAT is SO wrong !

all one has to do is watch the preceeding price action before the announcement to FULLY see what the banks and brokers are doing

if one has support and resist on their charts, they can practically predict to the penny (which i did last nite) WHERE the price is going ---- its not simple for those with a minimum of experience, but its "practically" a snap for those with experience and knowledge of how the market works.

if the price is going up before news, one looks at the 240 min chart, finds resistance, and thats where the news will take it before it then reverses, and WE KNOW it will reverse, or the banks would not have driven the price UP.

by driving the price UP, the banks are SHOUTING that they will be shorting it, you simply wait for top resistance on the LRC to be hit.

before news, they are so predictable as to be a joy !

oh laddie, what most of you simply dont know and yet could learn so easily !

enjoy and trade well

mp



I'm sorry, but that is complete ********!!... and by advising people to get in before a data release after judging the preceeding price action or automatically shorting the first big resistance you are going to get a lot of people badly burned. Nobody "with experience and knowledge of how the market works" would do this except in some extreme circumstances after taking other factors into account.

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INEVITABLY the brokers and banks will be moving the prices on the daily or 10 day/240 min charts in the direction OPPOSITE to where they will REALLY move the price. Reasons are, the banks already KNOW what the news is (or have a REALLY good guess from their battalions of analysists) so they move the price UP to its high, if they expect bad news (like todays brit decrease)--- If the price is not yet at its highest point, when news comes out they will continue the price UP till it hits topside resistance (theyre selling into the rally and doing it by SHORTING the currency) then, with their short positions firmly held, they reverse the direction of the currency and DOWN SHE GOES !

The banks very rarely get leaked data on major releases.... And if they did know a release was going to beat expectations they would get long beforehand and COVER into the buying. Sure, the initial reaction almost always overextends but they would very rarely put on a big short position after positive news unless they were taking into account other factors.


You are right, working out what "They" are doing is massively important for short term trading but you are way off the mark here and you are going to cost people a lot of money if they follow your advice.
 
I'm a little surprised at some responses to mp6140's posts, or more specifically to his charts. If you read the guy's posts, which I have, all of them, you'll find much to be considered that perhaps you hadn't already.

It's the nature of many technical analysts to become bedazzled by charts and indicators and lots of coloured lines. And if they can't 'snap it' straight away, some become irritated and frustrated. That I don't use any indicators myself and can't make head nor tail of MP's charts is not an issue for me and neither does it detract from what he has been saying and is continuing to say.

Read what the guy says. He's been a member for a while, but only this year has he opened up the throttle. He's giving good insights for those that are ready for them.
 
I'm sorry, but that is complete ********!!... and by advising people to get in before a data release after judging the preceeding price action or automatically shorting the first big resistance you are going to get a lot of people badly burned. Nobody "with experience and knowledge of how the market works" would do this except in some extreme circumstances after taking other factors into account.

I HAVE NOTHING TO PROVE, AND NOTHING TO GAIN WITH THIS SIMPLE INFO --- LOOK at your charts and then tell me Im wrong, but first LOOK !!!!

The banks very rarely get leaked data on major releases.... And if they did know a release was going to beat expectations they would get long beforehand and COVER into the buying. Sure, the initial reaction almost always overextends but they would very rarely put on a big short position after positive news unless they were taking into account other factors.

the banks and brokers and every single decent institution can tell you what will happen, because they have literally TONS of analysists working each and every day on the forthcoming announcements --- they HAVE to do this so they will always be on the right side of profit !

You are right, working out what "They" are doing is massively important for short term trading but you are way off the mark here and you are going to cost people a lot of money if they follow your advice.

my advice is not really aimed at newbs -- for them I teach a very basic version of WHAT the markets are doing and how to see what goes on --- the proof is in the tasting, and my emails are not stopping with thank you's from newbs who now MAKE money instead of losing it, as they did before !

my advice is aimed at the intermediate to experienced trader, pointing out something that they might not be aware of, such as the intraday reversals of a currency, the LRC and support and resistance --- use them after some experience and you yourself wont believe how your profits increase.

Ive spent years teaching, am constantly being asked to return to what was my home base for many years, but its stock oriented and since finding forex i no longer do stocks --- what ive found is the "experts" on forex (usually someone using ma crosses or something like "sell when the rsi starts to drop")dont really have a clue !

exit points are taken by stop loss, or "some" pivot point down there, or a fib (which may be closest) or any of a bunch of "throw the chicken bones in the air and see where they settle" routines) and i get plain sick of it.

to illustrate my qualifications, on another site i opened a demo account for $250 to show newbs what could be done with a small account. along the way, i doubled it every few days, but that wasnt the real hook --- that turned out to be that i NAILED every single take profit point to the pip --- repeatedly for 100 times in a row with never a miss --- there simply aint no better proof in the world than that compadre !

you have your ideas, and so you trade the way you wish --- i have my ideas and if you take your head out of the sand, take a look at your charts before news, TELL ME THEN IM WRONG !


BET YA MANY BILLS YOU WONT EVEN SAY A WORD, CAUSE ILL HAVE BEEN CORRECT AND YOU WONT HAVE THE GUTS TO ADMIT IT !

Ive done this a few times on this site, and yet to be wrong and i dont think ill start having problems at this point in my education.

good trading to you, anyway you wish to do it

mp
 
mp6140,

with the obvious exception that you quote above, I don't think anybody is disagreeing with your observation of the "pump and dump" (or anything else you want to call it, "a rose by any other name would smell as sweet") behaviour of major pairs before, during and immediately after a news event.

Without speaking for others, the point I tried to make is that in the charts you posted to illustrate said behaviour, the "raw" price action is very difficult to pick out. In a thread catered to newbies, concentrating on price action analysis, a simple candlestick chart with support and resistance clearly defined may have been more appropriate.

Of course you are under no obligation to alter your charts just to make things easier for others; but unless we know how all your indicators are to be interpreted, they only cloud the picture, and dilute the emphasis from the good point you originally made.
 
mp6140,

Without speaking for others, the point I tried to make is that in the charts you posted to illustrate said behaviour, the "raw" price action is very difficult to pick out. In a thread catered to newbies, concentrating on price action analysis, a simple candlestick chart with support and resistance clearly defined may have been more appropriate.

apologies

i shall allow my facial tone to turn from its recent purple to its more normal yellow/beige/green, give or take a shade here or there

ill take a look at any simple charts i can find, or simplyu eliminate everything but support and resistance and the price, of course

mp
 
Mp -- Try These

best i can do because the LRC (those lines) are such a part of how i trade

see how it went down over there on the left
now see how it went up to resist (RED dots)
SEE the arrow pointing down ?

see the currency fall down after the news ?

LOL

mp
 

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T-D, et al,
Sorry for digressing away from the thread subject with my initial post on news trading. Should we perhaps start a new thread on this subject so we can stick to the pins bars etc here? That way the thread will not get crowded.

As a newbie it can get confusing when all the 'pros' start to disagree with each other. I'm not after a holy grail, just a reliable way to trade efficiently with a long term goal of becoming a successful trader. I'm slowly trimming away all the indicators and trying to concentrate on price action. The thing I find odd with MP's charts is that if the action is all in the price then why so many indicators on the bottom of the chart? Does this just add confirmation to the price action or are you using them for entry/exit criteria.

Regarding volume, I was under the impression that it was nigh on impossible to show accurately on SB sites etc due to the nature of FOREX being traded across so many sites/exchanges? With LSE stocks volume must be accurate as it's their exchange, so how does MT4 get accurate FOREX volume from all the providers?

Also, MP said the price was rising due to the banks buying lots of short positions? I thought shorts were 'borrowed' from brokers etc? How do they alter price action if they are borrowed? Surely they would not show up as a transaction on the xchange or is it the MM's marking up the price knowing the shorts being borrowed? How does a bank drive prices up away from it's short to be able to profit later on? That must be a risky practise; what if loads of volume piled in against the banks and hit their stops??
Or am I being totally naive?
Grim
 
MP --- OHHHHHH --- is THAT what this thread is about ?

T-D, et al,
Sorry for digressing away from the thread subject with my initial post on news trading. Should we perhaps start a new thread on this subject so we can stick to the pins bars etc here? That way the thread will not get crowded.

Ill just shut up, so youse guys do what i interrupted !

As a newbie it can get confusing when all the 'pros' start to disagree with each other. I'm not after a holy grail, just a reliable way to trade efficiently with a long term goal of becoming a successful trader. I'm slowly trimming away all the indicators and trying to concentrate on price action. The thing I find odd with MP's charts is that if the action is all in the price then why so many indicators on the bottom of the chart? Does this just add confirmation to the price action or are you using them for entry/exit criteria.

couple of reasons for the indicators --- first, im constantly experimenting (over years and years) for that special "something") For instance, the way my indicators are set up on my research charts will show me immediately if the price is going to reverse soon !

Knowing that the price will reverse "soon" cues me to start being careful and very observant of resistance areas and time of day --- I dont use the indicators for entry and exits, but if i enter in the middle of a move, i like the confirmation the indicators give me in percentage of movement left, which allows me to have a pretty decent idea of what will be happening and how soon it will happen !


While one may very well trade without them, its like driving a car without guages --- you can look outside, estimate your speed and know where you are in the world, but you dont really know when youre gonna run out of gas, if the oil has leaked out of your car, or in the middle of the desert, if you car is overheating ---- IMHO, those who eschew indicators are driving with half a car !

Regarding volume, I was under the impression that it was nigh on impossible to show accurately on SB sites etc due to the nature of FOREX being traded across so many sites/exchanges? With LSE stocks volume must be accurate as it's their exchange, so how does MT4 get accurate FOREX volume from all the providers?

LOL -- there are many incorrect urban legends out there simply because there are few experienced traders roaming these boards !

while you are absolutely correct in that no one broker can show the extent of the TOTAL volume out there, it reminds me of a question asked by an enginneering instructor back in college ---- "if joe and his girlfriend are across the room from each other, and every 5 seconds they take a step towards each other, and if every step is HALF the distance of the last step, WILL THEY EVER GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAKE LOVE !" Now the "enginneering answer is NO, they can never be touching each other, but the real answer is "YES, for all practical purposes !"


Therefore, while not being able to show TOTAL volume, EACH BROKER CAN SHOW THEIR VOLUME, and as each broker is a microcosim of the whole market, their volumes are completely representative of the whole market also and therefore a completely valid indicator !

Also, MP said the price was rising due to the banks buying lots of short positions? I thought shorts were 'borrowed' from brokers etc? How do they alter price action if they are borrowed?

they are borrowing shares, SELLING THEM INTO THE RALLY, and will replace those borrowed shares after they cause the price to drop and all the retail traders become scared or their stops are hit --- either way, the mms get the shares to replace their borrowed ones cheaper !

Surely they would not show up as a transaction on the xchange or is it the MM's marking up the price knowing the shorts being borrowed? How does a bank drive prices up away from it's short to be able to profit later on? That must be a risky practise; what if loads of volume piled in against the banks and hit their stops??

when you have a rally, the prices are going up and the wiser retail traders KNOW where resistance is and sell before they get there, but the DUMB money, and that means most of the retail traders, are buying into the rally, expecting it to go up and up and up ---- these are the people BUYING the shorts BORROWED shares !

As far as altering the trends or anything else, UNDERSTAND please, THIS is their game -- their field and their ball ---- THEY control what happens and its rare that they dont agree, but if one gains experience, realizes how the game is played, then they become the SMART money also, and just play alongside the banks.

Or am I being totally naive?

possibly, but i would say most likely you just dont have the experience yet !

BUT YOU PROBABLY WILL, and then its a joy to trade, cause you already know where the exit is !
Grim

as i so often say

WELCOME WEEDHOPPER --- its a wonderful learning experience out there and at the end, without the green beer and little green people, theres a pot of gold just waiting !

mp
 
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couple of reasons for the indicators --- first, im constantly experimenting (over years and years) for that special "something") For instance, the way my indicators are set up on my research charts will show me immediately if the price is going to reverse soon !

Knowing that the price will reverse "soon" cues me to start being careful and very observant of resistance areas and time of day --- I dont use the indicators for entry and exits, but if i enter in the middle of a move, i like the confirmation the indicators give me in percentage of movement left, which allows me to have a pretty decent idea of what will be happening and how soon it will happen !

While one may very well trade without them, its like driving a car without guages --- you can look outside, estimate your speed and know where you are in the world, but you dont really know when youre gonna run out of gas, if the oil has leaked out of your car, or in the middle of the desert, if you car is overheating ---- IMHO, those who eschew indicators are driving with half a car !

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXx

LOL -- there are many incorrect urban legends out there simply because there are few experienced traders roaming these boards !

while you are absolutely correct in that no one broker can show the extent of the TOTAL volume out there, it reminds me of a question asked by an enginneering instructor back in college ---- "if joe and his girlfriend are across the room from each other, and every 5 seconds they take a step towards each other, and if every step is HALF the distance of the last step, WILL THEY EVER GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAKE LOVE !" Now the "enginneering answer is NO, they can never be touching each other, but the real answer is "YES, for all practical purposes !"

Therefore, while not being able to show TOTAL volume, EACH BROKER CAN SHOW THEIR VOLUME, and as each broker is a microcosim of the whole market, their volumes are completely representative of the whole market also and therefore a completely valid indicator

mp

I just want to pull you up on a couple of points.

Although it is reasonable to use an indicator like a gauge in your car (simplifying the task of deciding how fast you are going) you stretched the analogy too far. An indicator (like a gauge) can only tell you what it has inputs for so it can not tell you if you will run out of oil or gas unless attached to them. Thus, if an indicator has only price, volume, and time as inputs it can only simplify price, volume and time --- it can't see the "other" half of the car.

It is a dramatic stretch of the imagination to claim "as each broker is a microcosm of the whole market, their volumes are completely representative of the whole market." Most brokers are not representative of the market, let alone completely representative. It is potentially dangerous to assume that your brokers volume figures represent the big boys activities.

I agree with Bramble that you have some excellent insights that a careful reading of your posts will provide, although you also have some less supportable (although colourful) views.
 
I just want to pull you up on a couple of points.

Although it is reasonable to use an indicator like a gauge in your car (simplifying the task of deciding how fast you are going) you stretched the analogy too far. An indicator (like a gauge) can only tell you what it has inputs for so it can not tell you if you will run out of oil or gas unless attached to them. Thus, if an indicator has only price, volume, and time as inputs it can only simplify price, volume and time --- it can't see the "other" half of the car.

LOL -- well nine, a "stretch" it may have been, but the half of the "car" i do get to see is prophetic for movements of the price as that is precisely what im plugged into --- in fact, Ive got a really "sneaky" little one that will keep telling me trend, even if the price reverses and continues in the "wrong" direction. Using this, i can remain in a position knowing in advance that it will reverse soon and hit my tp point.

For me, it allows the lack of sl and confirms my holding where others would bail or be stopped out --- after all, if one ventures into the world without a stop loss, perhaps having "something" to tell them they have enough gas left to get to the tp point is sorta handy at times !


It is a dramatic stretch of the imagination to claim "as each broker is a microcosm of the whole market, their volumes are completely representative of the whole market." Most brokers are not representative of the market, let alone completely representative. It is potentially dangerous to assume that your brokers volume figures represent the big boys activities.

Im terribly sorry to disagree with you, but in the simplest of words that i can dredge up, youre wrong ! Each broker is a "relative portion" of the whole market and therefore they move a price up when the banks move it up and they move a price down when the banks move it down --- during this time, while their volumes are only a "portion" of the total market, that portion is fully representative of what the total market is doing --- there is simply NO way it cannot be, as 100 people trading the market will be doing pretty much what 5 million will be doing, so the percentage of volume is accurate give or take a smidge !

I agree with Bramble that you have some excellent insights that a careful reading of your posts will provide, although you also have some less supportable (although colourful) views.

ah, so hard to go forth in the world with the real answers -- so hard to upset such widely held views, some of which have been taught by the very people you trade against ! Im fully aware that what i say disagrees with many widely held beliefs, but i ONLY ask that you examine what i say, against the movements on your charts, and then judge me !

But i shall make a deal with you ---- ill pm you an url, which is going to be a search of my posts in a certain thread on another site and ill let you read my "reviews" from what are mostly newbs ---- then judge for yourself, ok ??

[/COLOR][/B]

enjoy and trade well

mp
 
This thread is to contain a spin off conversation from the Making Money Trading Thread

Enjoy :)


>>>>>>>>>>>>

I had a couple of questions for mp6140 in the previous thread because I am curious about his history and his client relationships. He referred me to some posts at another board which I had looked at earlier which piqued my curiosity.

- You turned up here and tsd in October 2006. Where were you and who were you before that date?

- A number of times in this thread you refer to "my clients". What type of clients are these and what type of relationship do you have with them?


Thanks,
Nine.
 
--- after all, if one ventures into the world without a stop loss, perhaps having "something" to tell them they have enough gas left to get to the tp point is sorta handy at times !

An excellent point in my view and clearly demonstrates the ability to "read" the market where most are just guessing.


Paul
 
Mis-guided Fool mate

good post td lol my hair stood on end when I looked at that chart

mp

Two really good posts imho with some real value tucked in there for those that really watch price action

Why the chart mp, whats that all about ?

If you no to the pip where its going you don"t need anything do you, is that just to baffle everyone :)

my ftse 4hr bar stopped like it had breaks on it as per ftse swing thread posts of possible low and spike down

I would not have been able to see sh.t with that lot on :)

good trading all

END OFF

I use two charting services and these are my favs --- the chart was in answer to a request for a chart showing what i was talking about --- the chart, if one just ignores the lines, clearly shows the price action and the price action was ALL i was speaking of

whats so hard about seeing the price go up, and then go down ?

and MAYBE, just MAYBE, all that complicated stuff is what allows me to prophesize where things are going, and maybe all that you peeps DONT HAVE leaves you just guessing !
fortunately EURUSD has been a sweetie today -- and she doesnt give a hoot about what kind of charts i use to follow her actions !

mp

Mp

I posted my response last night to show you for the complete dangerous idiot you obviously are mp

You should and people like you should be banned from public boards imho, how much exactly do sb firms pay you to sell your soul :?:

What you have posted in the last few weeks you should imo be ashamed of, its dangerous and you are leading people right up the garden path


What do all these movers of the market do ? phone each other up every week :LOL:
Your off your head mate

No one needs that x in their head to trade the markets, I concede it looks like that and I have posted Fun thoughts in the past but

How is it going to help anyone trade correctly ? Your xing with new traders heads and preaching no stops to which deserves a ban right there

The reason Taylor like methods do work Buy day Sell day open close etc etc etc) as nothing to do with their soundness or fact

They work better than other methods that are more confusing and just cause a new trader to hesitate on execution of method when in fact they have no real method yet so their hesitation is to be expected. Unfortunatly for many not by them in the moment

They just make a new trader execute with the authority of a pro for the or probably for the first time since starting out learning to trade, the result of any trade no matter what your imput give no Stop is I would have thought around 50/50, I dont no, whatever I am not that interested


You are just plain Dangerous (n) and anyone who listens to this idiot deserves all they get imho

That is the END OFF..................YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED
 
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Mp

I posted my response last night to show you for the complete dangerous idiot you obviously are mp

Bear, all i do is put forth information that I and other traders see and agree on --- how the markets work is KNOWN to traders in EVERY instrument --- it is just so bear, and thats how the institutions make so much, while the investor walks away with 10% !

i consistently warn newbs that the "no sl" situation should be demoed and watched, but my job is also to inform that this system works --- if it didnt, WHY DOES THIS SITE GIVE LESSONS ON NOT USING STOPLOSSES !
You should and people like you should be banned from public boards imho, how much exactly do sb firms pay you to sell your soul :?:

I work for myself Bear, and have a long and happy reputation as a teacher and warner of newbs !

What you have posed in the last few weeks you should imo be ashamed of, its dangerous and you are leading people right up the garden path

what i have posted has struck you as much of what columbus stated about the earth being round must have struck those who ABSOLUTELY believed it was flat, or that somewhat obscure man who the church forced to drink hemlock because he DARED to say the earth was NOT the center of the universe !


What do all these movers of the market do ? phone each other up every week :LOL:
Your off your head mate

No bear, they phone each other about 30 times a day, but thats just the traders ---- you are aware, of course, that bernakie discusses the US moves with his counterparts around the world, and that information, as ALL information does, gently sifts into the trading world.

but thats not really the answer, rather the answer to your question is THEY DONT HAVE TO because they can see whats happening and theyre all pretty much using the same support and resistance figures so they all pretty much are on the same track --- take a listen to all the analysts now talking about the dollars "bottom" --- with all that talk, most call this rite now a "false" bottom and predict the real one in the summer, which seems logical to me.


DO YOU NOT THINK EVERYONE ELSE IS THINKING THE SAME THING especially the pros !!

at one time, not a very long time ago, people who consider you nuts if you told everyone our cars engines would soon drive the FRONT wheels and not the REAR ones like God and the world had long ago decided ------ well take a look NOW baby !

If you KNOW TRADERS, and i mean those who work for institutions (not bucket shops) ask them yourself Bear -- see what the answer is !

NO BEAR, I am NOT going to lead your children and neighbors down the path that leads to destruction ----- rather Im more interested in keeping them safe, but banning me for simply revealing how the markets REALLY work, and offering up some contreversial tips doesnt deserve being tarred and feathered and run out of town on a rail !


enjoy and trade well

mp
 
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You said "if it didnt, WHY DOES THIS SITE GIVE LESSONS ON NOT USING STOPLOSSES !" in a previous post. Interestingly that post was a near duplicate of one on the other site you post on ... where maybe they do what you say.

But where on T2W do you find lessons on not using stop losses?

Please also note the two questions above :)
 
Mp

How is it going to help anyone trade correctly ? Your F..cking with new traders heads and preaching no stops to which deserves a ban right there
Eh? No stops, tight stop, loose stops - they're all just different folks' takes on what works for them and their methods and systems at any given point in time. I've been through that particular cycle myself enough times to know what works for me. And it's largely irrelevant where I sit on that particular score right now. Or when or why I may change it in the future.

What has so heated you up to respond like this Mr. Bear? The guy’s just giving us his view on what works best for him. If others choose to jump in and emulate all or part of what he’s doing, that’s their responsibility. And to be fair, MP has constantly stressed what he does has been born out of significant experience and AFAICS has not suggested anyone do anything with what he’s posting other then to take a look for themselves. Due diligence and personal responsibility. If a newbie goes out flying blind and without clue hits a trade with no SL he’s either going to get burned straightaway or at some point in the not too distant future. If anyone is that stupid, they deserve to get hit.

I’m none too in favour of attempting to protect the stupid from themselves. Natural selection operates in pretty much every sphere – always has and always will. I don’t think we should attempt to interfere with the process or limit the free flow of discussion in case some fool goes off half-cocked.
 
If anyone is that stupid, they deserve to get hit.

I’m none too in favour of attempting to protect the stupid from themselves. Natural selection operates in pretty much every sphere – always has and always will. I don’t think we should attempt to interfere with the process or limit the free flow of discussion in case some fool goes off half-cocked.

I disagree with all of that. It is an experienced poster's duty to try to dissuade the inexperienced from making wrong moves.

If that is not the case, why does a site like T2W exist?

That is not to say that I am taking sides for, or against, mp. When I first started to notice him, I thought that he made a change from the usual postings that seem to be the norm, nowadays. Lately, I have not been following him so much.

But I do hope that he is not following your opinion that the inexperienced lead are stupid and, therefore, should be squeezed like lemons.

Split
 
I disagree with all of that. It is an experienced poster's duty to try to dissuade the inexperienced from making wrong moves.
Tell you what Split, when I think I know enough about trading to know definitively what is a wrong move and what is a right move, I'll jump in and say so. But right now, I'm none too convinced I'll ever be that cocksure. As for duty, there isn't any unless you choose to invent it. Just my view.

But I do hope that he is not following your opinion that the inexperienced lead are stupid and, therefore, should be squeezed like lemons.

Split
Don't think I said that Split. In any endeavour which we commence with no knowledge or experience we’re effectively stupid. Can't be any other way. That’s the purpose of this site I’d guess, to allow the sensible but stupid to educate themselves, should they chose to, and find out what works before they lose too much money.

Dunno about ‘squeezed like lemons’ that’s your stuff coming out perhaps – what I was saying is that MP has been advising newbies AGAINST doing what he does until they aren’t stupid any more. I feel like I’m defending that which needs no defence, so I’ll stop on this specific issue right now as I have no axe to grind nor benefit in continuing to do so.
 
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