"Trading Day by Day" by Chick Goslin

Kiwi said:
You would count back 20 days and it will tell you the same thing about the 20 0that his approach would tell you about the 50. However you have gone from a long term trend to a much shorter term one so IMO you are messing with the system a lot.
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Kiwi ,
I havent actually switched to a 20 yet as i am still working out the method so to speak - i did find however that if you stayed with a 50 you were missing out on a lot of movement ( thi s can easily be proved by a back test ) and that your triggers would be minimised to an extent . The method or system works well on all time frames - so if you wanted to day trade this system that would work as well . As well as that I found that the 20 ma trend line is as much support among stocks as the 50 .. so unfortunately I have to disagree I feel that the system is nt messed up at all by utilisng the 20 .. after all its what quite a few traders are already doing .
 
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Trading Day by Day: Winning the Zero Sum Game of Futures Trading
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Now sells for $56.00 new and $115.25 - $126.38 used on Amazon.
 
From what I understand from reading the book. the actual number of periods of your averages are not that important. The levels he gives in the book are the ones he uses and has found to work, but the felling I get from the book is that the methodology of trend following and trading price not opinion etc are the most important things the actual indicator is a personal chice and one is not better than the other. So yes a 20 period moving average would not mess up the principles of his book, as long as you are happy with using it.
 
Any system that relies on trend following for profitability will be better on (some) futures on a daily basis. The reason is that they trend better on a daily basis (if you look on the turtletradingsoftware site you will find much analysis of such things including a paper I did looking at trendiness of various futures).

So the system will experience more great trends in futures.

Having said that, this system buys pullbacks not breakouts (like aberration say) so it doesnt do too badly in stocks and stock indexes either.


On the subject of 20 vs 50 emas I will respectfully suggest care. This is very much a triple screen style of trading using the long ema to give you the overall trend. If you go too short then the trend you read may be the "wrong" one. Perhaps as you get better at anticipating the 50sma you may not need a short sma .... or perhaps for the trends in the item you trade you will. If you need a shorter sma you may also need to shorten the other indicators ... basically fine tuning to their trend lengths and the nature of their pullbacks.
 

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Liam,

Just one other thought.

If you assume that Chick (who doesnt trade intraday) got a good balance with the sma and macd lengths it would be interesting to try an experiment with your intraday timeframes. If you are trading 5 mins and find that the 20 sma is dominant it would be interesting to see if trading 2 mins with the 50 sma (almost identical) would give you an entry advantage on the macds.

What happens if you try that? Do you get better entries than on 5mins or do you get too many false signals?


And its not unfortunate that you disagree. Its good. If everyone traded the same way and traded well then how could we possibly make money?

LOL. Just reread your post --- ".. after all its what quite a few traders are already doing." Remember that the stats are that 90% to 95% of traders fail - amusement in the arguement, not really a comment on the use of 20 mas.
 
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I also tried setiing this up with a 34 ema as long trend, and a 16 period sma of a 14 cci, and the 14 cci as the medium and short trendlines and they throw up some good signals on a 4 hr chart. I tried this as the book does say the it's the concept and price that is the key, not the actual indicators, and as I was more familiar with using 14 cci and 34 ema I incorporated them. I can't presently code my platform to throw up nice little arrows or dots yet to tell me when to buy and sell. Mind you, it has complicated a little what I found worked really well before and that was simply to take my cci signals in the direction of a sloping 34 ema. Some excellent stuff in the book on the associated price action and watching the days unfold.
 
Kiwi said:
Liam,

Just one other thought.

If you assume that Chick (who doesnt trade intraday) got a good balance with the sma and macd lengths it would be interesting to try an experiment with your intraday timeframes. If you are trading 5 mins and find that the 20 sma is dominant it would be interesting to see if trading 2 mins with the 50 sma (almost identical) would give you an entry advantage on the macds.

What happens if you try that? Do you get better entries than on 5mins or do you get too many false signals?


Kiwi ,

many thanks for your post on this matter . I have no intention of trading intra day on chicks method - Ive looked at the charts and basically if you want to go bannanas and get more false signals than true ones - then thats the way to go . I strongly believe that this system will only work effectively on an intermediate frame basis rather than a day trade either on a 20 or 50 ma but definitely not intra day as I dont feel that the human brain could possibly be able to take in and analyse all the information needed from the charts . If other people do trade intra day on this method - well good luck to them - and i sincerely men that - personally i think its a recipe for disaster . so id recommend chicks 50 or if you want a bit of a head start trade off the 20 but the idea of day trading off this system is to my mind a possible sure fire way of losing most of your capital.

The other matter is that chicks system needs some homework done before committing to the trade and an ability to read charts correctly and analyse trends in the future as well as the s/l and m/l line . Pretty impossible on a 5 minute basis !
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Kiwi said:
Any system that relies on trend following for profitability will be better on (some) futures on a daily basis. The reason is that they trend better on a daily basis (if you look on the turtletradingsoftware site you will find much analysis of such things including a paper I did looking at trendiness of various futures).

.
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kiwi ,

forgot to say thanks a very much for your attached thumbnail - which was fascinating and very helpful. Where did you find it ? is there a site ? i think it would be of benefit to find a site that lists the strongly trending markets ! any more views on stocks vs indices vs futures on the goslin system ? :LOL:
 
I did the chart myself using some measure of trendiness over varying timeframes but I don't recall exactly what I did. It is posted somewhere at Curtis's website though.
 
I only ever look at stocks, so I can't comment on other instruments, but it shouldn't matter what the underlying instrument is. As long as you find something which is trending, then you should be OK. Stocks, Futures, Forex or whatever your trading choice is.

As far as changing the TL is concerned...

I too found the 50 SMA to be a little long, but maybe I am just a little impatient. Interestingly though, after looking at different lengths and MA types, I preferred the 20 SMA too.

Chick does mention on a number of occasions that the actual indicator settings aren't that important, but that you do need "Reasonable Reliable Indicators" which he says SMR's are.

If a 20 SMA or another MA feels better to you and is long enough to show a trend, then try paper trading it. We are all different and have a different 'feel' for the market and our interaction with it. Paper trading isn't as accurate as real trading, but it is better to see if it is worth risking your hard earned money on.
 
hi Bill
I figured that out, its the middle signal that I am having trouble with
at the moment I am running two screens
1 with 10/20price osc ( simple )
9 momentum

second screen
17 momentum
3.10.13macd
both seem to work ok
BUT anyone got anything better ?

hornblower
 
There is a very well reasoned review of Chick Goslin's book here

http://www.financial-gurus.com/book-reviews/7518/Steve-Anderton

I don't have the book but the review certainly tempts me to get it. Trading books that have real depth to them are few and far between.

I imagine (though I may be wrong) the reviewer is the same Steve Anderton who runs The Tactical Trader site and who was featured in the FT recently as a successful spread better.
 
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Sharescope has a limited number of indicators ,
and unlike tradestation , I was hoping someone can help me on this
 
Sharescope lacks a programming language - a big drawback. I prefer to use Amibroker - comes with an excellent programming language.


hornblower said:
Sharescope has a limited number of indicators ,
and unlike tradestation , I was hoping someone can help me on this
Click to expand...
 
Hey guys, I have this book and I think it's great. Currently I'm on the charts for Cocoa (man he got in that one perfectly) I am confused by his analysis on page 69 though. Do you guys see the trend line going up? looks flat to me.

Also a more general question to those of you who have been using this method for a while. How many trades a year can I expect to do and how many will be profitable? Now I know that's kind of a terrible question to ask as it will vary from trader to trader and year to year but I just wanted a general idea because I am new to trading (TDBD is my first book) and I haven't a clue what to expect. If my question is still too broad let me ask it this way, using this method am I more likely to A) Make 12 trades a year and "win" 80% of them or B) Make 48 trades a year and win 30% of them? Of course this is assuming a number of things, the biggest one being that I trade the method correctly and profitably. :)

Thanks for any advice
 
og5
the things that you are asking , depends on you , what you think , and what you do ,
paper trade for a while , until your successful 60% of the time, read everything you can, if you rush into trading to soon you will lose your shirt
I have several trades running at the same time ,
I have been doing this for 30 years , dont rush into anything
run you profits , cut you loses
thats the golden rule
good luck
H
 
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