the widespread use cliche (meme)
"if any system or indicator was very good, then everyone would use it and it would negate itself" (harrumph)
widespread use meme
I read somewhere recently that any particular strategy will be skewed
if it becomes popular enough and enough people start using it.
That is indeed a widespread belief or concept. It is one of many that
are often repeated by the financial media, another one is
'you can't time the market'.
Its a meme because few people dig into asking questions about it
and its spread from person to person across the net.
I think it does not take into account the huge effect human nature
plays in its application. I've been developing a computer program
that governs my trading since late 2000 and in discussions with
other developers and users since then I have experienced many scenarios
of human nature that would prevent any system or method from becoming
so widespread that it would invalidate itself. Below is a list of
factors of human nature that would be involved.
I have seen every one take place in real life.
1. The myth that any system or method can catch every point of every
move every time. If any system or method had even one loss or drawdown,
this would cause X percent of followers to drop off in search of a
better one. If this happened on their first trade X would become a
larger percent. If there were two losers in a row, I've seen enough
posts over the years to know there would be a large exodus.
2. Along the same theme, if the system buys or sells and misses any
possible further gain, another X percent would become discouraged.
3. Along the way, you will also get people who 2nd guess the system,
and thereby miss trades and get discouraged. This also involves media
coverage making them discouraged or too optimistic versus what the
program is telling them.
4. The 2nd guessing can also take the form of pure disagreement with
the system, for instance if it said to buy at a major market low when
things looked especially gloomy or vice versa during euphoria periods.
5. How much work will it take also eliminates anther X percent of
possible system users. To illustrate this, here?s an example. Early
versions of my program took me 5 minutes per day to update. I had
several people ask me if there was any way to automate that so they
wouldn?t have to spend 5 minutes per day. Think about it.
6. You would also loss another X percent of investors due to
'the grass is greener on the other side' syndrome, wherein they would
drop off to chase a different system that looked better.
7. another X percent of people out there are religiously convinced it
can't be done at all; to the extent they will steadfastly refuse to
even look at trade receipts. Over the years I've seen about 75% of
the people who respond just quote some sound bite they once heard
saying 'you can't time the market' or must be curve-fit etc etc.
When you press them for details, many times it turns out they have
done little or no work on their own, just read an article once by a
broker who said so. If I talk to 50 people, I get perhaps 5 like him
that actually will do the diligence.
8. others feel that dollar cost averaging is the only way to go.
9. Others are all hung up on management fees to the extent that they
will ignore a 20% fund with 2% fees in favor of a 14% fund with 1% fees, because a sound bite told them fees are everything.
10. others will get all hung up with macro bear or bull projections
and miss all the intermediate moves a system could produce for them,
sometimes ending up on the wrong side of an entire run.
11. It takes money to make money, so if it takes $5,000 to trade
a given system, how many potential users did you just eliminate?
12. How many people will make some excuse to withdraw their money
because they want a new sofa? (or fill in the blank)
In short, unless it delivers 10% per month to their account in a
bank with zero risk, I say no system or indicator will ever become
that widespread because people are people.[/B]
The trading world is full of cliches & expressions, some of them are creditable but a lot of them are just cop-outs.
Here is my attempt at cliche bashing, feel free to join in
CLICHE: "No one ever went broke taking profits"
What it really means: "I've lost the last 2 trades and my confidence is low, my latest position is up +5, I'm feeling frightened and I dont want another loser so I'm going to take profit now"