Traders: Millions by the Minute

[N Puri]

Sorry if this has been mentioned, I haven't read the whole thread as it's quite long now. I watched the documentary this week; I thought it was interesting and definitely showed that trading is difficult and many people lose. However, I did feel it was very irresponsible to be showing people such as the housewife, who is making 'hundreds of thousands' on a demo account and finding it so easy... with her method of 'guessing' whether the market will go up and down. How many people are watching the programme at home thinking "well that's easy, I can do that better than her" and will then lose thousands by 'guessing' the market. Maybe just me, but I thought it was irresponsible to show that in the way they did to a mass audience without pointing out the idiocy of it!

 

[Atilla]

Sorry if this has been mentioned, I haven't read the whole thread as it's quite long now. I watched the documentary this week; I thought it was interesting and definitely showed that trading is difficult and many people lose. However, I did feel it was very irresponsible to be showing people such as the housewife, who is making 'hundreds of thousands' on a demo account and finding it so easy... with her method of 'guessing' whether the market will go up and down. How many people are watching the programme at home thinking "well that's easy, I can do that better than her" and will then lose thousands by 'guessing' the market. Maybe just me, but I thought it was irresponsible to show that in the way they did to a mass audience without pointing out the idiocy of it!

I think that's just you.

Never crossed my mind until you mentioned it.

 

[N Puri]

I think that's just you.

Never crossed my mind until you mentioned it.

Maybe it is just me then still stand by my thoughts there though!

 

[NVP]

You're right in so far as it's six of one and half a dozen of the other. The problem comes down to inflexibility. If you're always with the crowd or always against it you're not going to do too well at all. And I'd suggest there's a distinct difference between the crowd and the money. The two sets merge and diverge. Bit like a Venn-Euler diagram with two circles where they are never quite totally discrete sets, but often there's little overlap.

I was agreein with ya by the way.

just like a sellout concert at Wembley......get in early and leave just before the end

 

[trendie]

Sorry if this has been mentioned, I haven't read the whole thread as it's quite long now. I watched the documentary this week; I thought it was interesting and definitely showed that trading is difficult and many people lose. However, I did feel it was very irresponsible to be showing people such as the housewife, who is making 'hundreds of thousands' on a demo account and finding it so easy... with her method of 'guessing' whether the market will go up and down. How many people are watching the programme at home thinking "well that's easy, I can do that better than her" and will then lose thousands by 'guessing' the market. Maybe just me, but I thought it was irresponsible to show that in the way they did to a mass audience without pointing out the idiocy of it!

the "housewife" thing was a red-herring.
they did indeed show her making "millions".
however, the first few minutes of the second episode revealed it was after all a demo account.
in fact, the second episode, where the housewife opened a real account, £6K I think, showed her losing money, and showed her expressing anxiety over the losses.

NB: spoiler alert!

 

[Mr. Charts]

just like a sellout concert at Wembley......get in early and leave just before the end

I remember leaving Wembley Arena early during a Bob Dylan concert (with him supported by Tom Petty) because the scumbags around us were talking so loudly we couldn't hear Dylan ! I asked them to be quiet and they thought that was funny......and they had paid a lot of good money to be there !
Still can't figure that out.
Bit like t2w I suppose, too many people spouting off so they don't see the good stuff.

 

[drtro]

"I go to bed dreaming of a recession ?"

jees think it but dont say it ...........

I bet Kevin O'Leary has wet dreams about this guy every night, just trancing through a field where grass is $100 bills and live piggy banks with saddles are everywhere.

 

[drtro]

A mention on Elite Trader re the Porsche guy who didn't mention he was a vendor

www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/a-new-trader-documentary.286609/page-2

EliteTrader is a bunch of retarded retail traders who burned an account or two trying to teach new retail traders how to be successful. It's nothing but a cess pool of arguing over dumb **** and proving who's opinion is the lesser of the stupid. So I had no expectations of clicking this link other than to see a bunch of nobodies arguing over whether it is accurate or not. And it didn't surprise me to see everybody arguing like they know everything about the people in the show.

 

[NVP]

Sorry if this has been mentioned, I haven't read the whole thread as it's quite long now. I watched the documentary this week; I thought it was interesting and definitely showed that trading is difficult and many people lose. However, I did feel it was very irresponsible to be showing people such as the housewife, who is making 'hundreds of thousands' on a demo account and finding it so easy... with her method of 'guessing' whether the market will go up and down. How many people are watching the programme at home thinking "well that's easy, I can do that better than her" and will then lose thousands by 'guessing' the market. Maybe just me, but I thought it was irresponsible to show that in the way they did to a mass audience without pointing out the idiocy of it!

jees if the BBC approached their documentaries with that level of due diligence, quality control and in depth research - we would have about 2 documentaries a year for our telly licence

N

 

[Lightning McQueen]

nice sig there rourkem

and all the users of firefox likely now have to clean their cookies out again

does that smiley affiliate cuckoo crap still work??

 

[systematicfx]

The guy with the Porsche runs a website www.ezeetrader.com
He was also recently FSA registered to a company called Wallwood Consultants which has recently ceased regulated activities and seems to be of dubious reputation. The show portrayed him as a successful home trader rather than someone who aggressively markets and sells trading systems which have performed poorly

Definitely the "so called" system sold on the website have ZIP chance to make any money. and getting 50 mio usd will definitely change his life.... Execution and slippage will become an headache for him.

 

[systematicfx]

Getting Back On Thread

Just a thought...

shouldnt the Brummie Guys be registered with the FSA as financial advisors in order to give financial advice and trade other peoples money?

If I am not mistaken ( I ll have to check again) Up to 14 investors in fx you do not need registration.

 

[systematicfx]

Pat,

Tks for your feedback.

Nothing wrong in dong some due diligence, I would have done exactly the same myself. And it's easy to do it on me as my name is fairly rare. Which Pat Riley are you by the way?


Actually, I came back on to T2W after not posting for years, just to mention my Training day offering and consequently have been dragged into a debate on what am I, who I provide research for etc.etc. It was never my intention to sell the research side of the business on here.

In hindsight trying to sell anything here seems to have been a bit of a faux pas, for that I sincerely apologise to everyone.

(Note to self - don't post business related stuff on a social forum unless you have the time to deal with fallout)

I'm both UK and France(South of France) based, operating as self employed. However, using MacroVIGILANCE as my identity. I am a bit stealth it has to be said. But my personal phone number is always available to call me in person. Plus I respond to emails promptly, unlike several global brands that don't seem to.

Yes, I only use a UK mobile as my work phone contact. I like to be able to turn it off at night and not have callers from Japan of Dubai call my house at 3am and wake the baby up. Yes, I could invest in a second phone line and take the phone off the hook at night. But why have two phone contacts when one is suffice. Plus, in the daytime when I am walking around Hossegor Lake(clue to where I live) on my lunch break, clients can still contact me. Additionally, this provides a direct line to me 7days a week, wherever I am, which I think is a good thing. Any interested parties can contact me to discuss business or the markets in general. Many other small businesses only have a mobile contact e.g. plumber, builder, hair dresser - so why can't I? Maybe it's good that I am not hiding behind an institutional switchboard or a big brand? I literally put myself and work out there, the good the bad and the ugly.

Yes, the website has only been set up since 2012. But my main product since 2009 has been the Macro Vigilance report, operating from my previous website (now defunct) Simon-maelzer.com - http://www.statscrop.com/www/simon-maelzer.com

I'll take "Your sample reports are not institutional quality" as good and bad. I am definitely trying to be maverick and original with my research and it is certainly not aimed at the herd. It's largely visual based with an element of systematic-ness about it with the proprietary models. And, I'll say it here, I am not the greatest writer out there(and proof reads are a ballache (and even then the odd thing can get missed - part of life, happens at all levels)), but I think my offering is quite original and possibly unique. People who manage assets, require a spectrum of perspectives to form their world views.

So, yes MV is a relatively new venture, but my experience and research in financial markets is not. Although, I'm not a veteran like Prechter, Pesavento, Armstrong, Faber, Fuller, Griffiths, Cox, Murphy, O'Neill, Gross, Buffett etc. But I certainly do hope to have the longevity they have experienced in this industry. Incidentally, I have read many an institutional and independent research note and on the majority of times I found the independents work more informative and enlightening - just my take on things.

Oh, the poor folk who followed Lehmans and Bear Stearns work:-0

I totally agree with you on your point "I" and "We", this probably needs to be addressed sooner rather than later. That said, a third party does contribute in a smaller way to the process, but I am largely a one man band as you say.

I do have to disagree with you on "smaller outfits not wanting to buy in research from a one man band" - my humble/modest client list says otherwise. Plus, it depends on what you are offering and at what price and if an individual sees value in what you do. I can assure you, people who mange real assets do value my work. I don't put testimonials on my website, as clients generally want to remain below the radar on what sources of intel they are subscribing too.


Thanks again for taking the time to comment.

All the best,

Simon

I have one question. Why do you call it "macro" and the charts you are posting as an example have nothing to do with macro analysis.

 

[simonmaelzer]

I have one question. Why do you call it "macro" and the charts you are posting as an example have nothing to do with macro analysis.

systematicfx - tks for dragging me back into this thread - I thought sunday was my day off

what charts exactly are you referring to?

 

[systematicfx]

systematicfx - tks for dragging me back into this thread - I thought sunday was my day off

what charts exactly are you referring to?

the few you display on your website as examples of your analysis.

 

[simonmaelzer]

the few you display on your website as examples of your analysis.

Tks for being specific.

SP Global 1200, SP 500, DAX, Nikkei, Crude Oil, USD/JPY ... not macro??

Are you trying to wind me up or just waste my time?

 

[systematicfx]

Tks for being specific.

SP Global 1200, SP 500, DAX, Nikkei, Crude Oil, USD/JPY ... not macro??

Are you trying to wind me up or just waste my time?

No it s just a technical analysis of few charts part of different asset classes.

here is an example of some macro analysis.

What We Learned Last Week | We are no longer in the era of 'crushed volatility' cross-asset class as the S&P falls to its lowest level since April and the US 10y Treasury yield sheds 30bp intraday to temporarily trade below 2%. Liquidity even in supposedly the deepest, most liquid capital market in the world, the US bond market, can evaporate suddenly. Asset markets are yet more sensitive to US data. The barrage of global disinflation data continues as China and UK CPI slip to multi-year lows and Sweden falls deeper into deflation. The oil price falls further and EU 5y5y inflation breakevens trade below 1.75%. San Francisco Fed Governor Williams is the first to float the idea of US QE4 if the recovery stalls. UK employment growth has slowed but the unemployment rate has fallen to 6.0%. MPC member Weale has not changed his view in favour of an early rate hike, but BoE Chief Economist Haldane says weaker growth prospects and softer inflation may support pushing out the first hike. Greek yields can still rise 100bp or more in one day. Greek political uncertainty intensifies.

The thematic week ahead

UK disinflation to pressurise GBP | In our opinion, slower UK inflation is becoming more entrenched and goes beyond soft energy and other commodity prices. Fierce price competition on the UK high street persists and global disinflation pressures, not least in the rest of Europe, intensify. The second derivative of employment growth is negative and growth has almost stalled. Despite the unemployment rate falling, wage growth is subdued. We see subdued wage growth ahead. UK growth also feels the chill from slower Euro area growth as the region struggles from a broad array of headwinds. We now expect the first Bank of England rate hike in August 2015, followed by another in November, six months later than previously forecast. While we do not yet believe that such an extended period of monetary accommodation is entirely warranted, we see scope for asset markets to adjust further to what we believe is a very benign inflation environment and for GBP to weaken. M&A flows may turn less supportive meaning renewed focus on the UK's large current account deficit. Short-term yield sensitive and portfolio flows can be a particularly heavy weight on GBP/USD and we maintain our long-held forecast that a decline into the mid to low 1.50s is possible over the coming year. We see renewed EUR/GBP weakness medium term. But near-term risk is higher.

and here is an example of tech analysis with different underlying part of dif asset classes similar to yours.

 

[simonmaelzer]

Well it all depends how you look at the world, how you define it and what you want to hear.

If you want a load of jawboning then there is plenty out there.

Plus where are the boundaries of Technical Anlysis, Statistical anlysis and Econometrics? There is cross over good and bad.

From my perspective, I believe Financial Markets are leading economic indicators that give us evolving information in real time (when they are open that is).

So much published economic data from the various governments and institutions are lagging, manipulated and often revised.

If you wan't to express a global view through trading/investing, why not focus mainly on the instruments themselves? If the weather is really bad with intermittent deluges of rain and you need to run an errand, you don't look at the BBC weather data for that day to time your exact exit out of the house/office in order to avoid getting drenched. You simply look out the window and see what is happening in real-time and take your chances. Similarly an F1 team might view the current weather radar to make an imminent tyre change to take advantage of changing conditions. The landing pilot takes into account a live wind speed/direction report from ATC seconds before touch done or go-around. etc etc

My work personally revolves around using the same select models(fixed parameters) across all the instruments I track (primary Equity indices, Government Bonds, FX majors and key Commodities). Granted it is not 100% systematic, but like weather forecasting/advisory services, there is an element of human judgement required whilst viewing the empirical data and what your models are implying.

Just my take on things, and for me and my clients my work is Macro.

Lets put it out to the community here in T2W - who thinks using models with set parameters on SP Global 1200, SP500, Crude Oil is macro or not?

 

[simonmaelzer]

Additionally...

I try to differ my service from the run of the mill stuff out there.

I try to to be very visual based with a consistent format month in month out.

I'm basically interested where money flow is going into and out of with regards to major assets. It's just like poker and being able to detect strength or weakness before placing your bets. For that, I use a simple but effective model to do so, with a layer of basic Technical Analysis on top to get the point across.

In my experience most fund mangers and traders view charts before they make a decision whether it be on a Penny stock or a Macro play.

A link to my two last monthly reports which largely called recent events correctly for my clients.

published 5th Oct
published 31st August

Please bear in mind, this is a generic type of investment report for general client reading. Bespoke advisory for specific instruments is a seperate service. Plus- writing monthly has it's challenges as data can change quickly, that is why I also publish a weekly brief (Oct 10th brief). But on the whole this a Global Macro product based at longer term positioning and it's main goal is to alert the Fund Manager to the change in the big trends. Very difficult if not impossible to warn against a 1000point flash crash or a September 11th event. That's down to individual's own risk managment and positioning.

 

[jk2000]

this is an interesting paper.
Overfitting is a problem in not just trading but: weather forecasting, climate change models,
So most trading models should be publish and be honest about negative trials