Sharky
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Yeah that's fine Peter. Live explanations, screenshots, screen casts, audio, video, webcam, or just plain text we'll accept them all!
Best Thread Trade2Win's 10 Year Anniversary - Day 5 (Anatomy of a Trade)
Mr. Charts
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Wrong side of the hill
Oh dear ! A Lancastrian !
Still, that's not your fault.
You have my sympathy.
At least they too have sheer Northern grit.
tar
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correct your stop please
counter_violent
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wackypete2
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tar
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better idea , post one post and keep editing it ...
wackypete2
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the hare
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I am completely serious, and there are extremely good reasons why I take this approach. This game isnt as hard as people make out, you need to minimise the size of your average loss (my losing trade was a reasonable example of reducing a potential 1R loss to a 0.5R loss), you need to maximise your average gain. Improving hit rate helps too, and I can usually get trend direction right most of the time, but the random entry component tends to erode the benefit of that.
Add in some diversification, and sensible position sizing and the jobs a good un.
bbmac
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A trade on gbpusd today
Cable today had rallyed again off yesterday's 5835 lo ( 38.2% 5473-6059 in a 1hr/4hr previous swing lo zone) following an initial 5943 pullback hi, a retest and a dip to 5883 overnight (asian session) Lo. Price then tested and rejected for the 3rd time the 5943 pullback hi (61.8% of the 6009- said 5835 lo)...the first 2 attempts had formed a previous 1hr swing hi zone (ie previous resistance = previous near-term obvious imbalance of supply/demand) See 1hr screenshot below - the circled area is where the 3rd test was, the 1hr 100 sma was also there as confluence (yellow line)
I had missed the 5min set-up right at the top (5943) on the 5min t/f...a regular bearish divergence set-up with a bearish engulfing candle close trigger, there was also regular bearish divergence on the 15 and 30min t/f's
Staying on that 5min and the resultant price action from the potential resistance confluence of the previous 1hr swing hi zone x 2/100sma-1hr/61.8% 6009-5835 - there had been a HL as price pulled back from the 3rd test rejection at 5944 H, then a LH, and then a L formed and then a potential 2nd LH as price pulled back from that L. From the 5944 H there had been a bearish engulfing at that 5min H (5943) and a decisice rejection forming the 1st 5min LH. Then when that pullback occurred off the first L on this 5min t/f ( a L under the last HL) the pullback paused at the previous swing low , ie the last HL (previous support now = potential resistance) and this was accompanied by a 1min hidden divergence based set-up to get short there...see pics below...
The 1min hidden divergence based set-up is here:
Despite the 3 x rejections of the 5943 area I still wanted more confirmation that shorting from here was the highest probability direction from this area particularly as on the 1min set-up entry the 5min 2nd LH was not fractally formed unless/until the 0855and 0900am 5min candles had close, and there had been no LL yet on 5min constituting a fully formed overall price action-peak/valley analysis downtrend on this t/f. I therefore rejected the 1min set-up and waited for the 0855 5min candle to close which it did as a master bearish engulfing inverted hammer candle (bearish candle,) engulfing the last 4 x candles on this 5min t/f...this provided the trigger to get short from this 2nd potential LH on 5min...A LL resulted on this 5min t/f now downtrend, and price continued down until a bounce of the new ascending 4hr trend line after a further knee-jerk leg down after the 0930am Uk data.
I exited the trade as price hit a previous obvious swing lo on the 1hr t/f (ie a previous near-term area where there existed an imbalance of demand/supply) price did indeed bounce from here and went on to form a 3rd LH and then went south again for a further 5min leg down (but that's another story...) The previous 1hr swing lo zone is shown below.
The 5min screenshot shows it more clearly below. You will see the small vounce from the previous 1hr swing lo zone (previous near-term obvious imbalance of demand/supply) before a further 2 x legs down from a 3rd and 4th LH on this 5min t/f;
G/L
Cable today had rallyed again off yesterday's 5835 lo ( 38.2% 5473-6059 in a 1hr/4hr previous swing lo zone) following an initial 5943 pullback hi, a retest and a dip to 5883 overnight (asian session) Lo. Price then tested and rejected for the 3rd time the 5943 pullback hi (61.8% of the 6009- said 5835 lo)...the first 2 attempts had formed a previous 1hr swing hi zone (ie previous resistance = previous near-term obvious imbalance of supply/demand) See 1hr screenshot below - the circled area is where the 3rd test was, the 1hr 100 sma was also there as confluence (yellow line)
I had missed the 5min set-up right at the top (5943) on the 5min t/f...a regular bearish divergence set-up with a bearish engulfing candle close trigger, there was also regular bearish divergence on the 15 and 30min t/f's
Staying on that 5min and the resultant price action from the potential resistance confluence of the previous 1hr swing hi zone x 2/100sma-1hr/61.8% 6009-5835 - there had been a HL as price pulled back from the 3rd test rejection at 5944 H, then a LH, and then a L formed and then a potential 2nd LH as price pulled back from that L. From the 5944 H there had been a bearish engulfing at that 5min H (5943) and a decisice rejection forming the 1st 5min LH. Then when that pullback occurred off the first L on this 5min t/f ( a L under the last HL) the pullback paused at the previous swing low , ie the last HL (previous support now = potential resistance) and this was accompanied by a 1min hidden divergence based set-up to get short there...see pics below...
The 1min hidden divergence based set-up is here:
Despite the 3 x rejections of the 5943 area I still wanted more confirmation that shorting from here was the highest probability direction from this area particularly as on the 1min set-up entry the 5min 2nd LH was not fractally formed unless/until the 0855and 0900am 5min candles had close, and there had been no LL yet on 5min constituting a fully formed overall price action-peak/valley analysis downtrend on this t/f. I therefore rejected the 1min set-up and waited for the 0855 5min candle to close which it did as a master bearish engulfing inverted hammer candle (bearish candle,) engulfing the last 4 x candles on this 5min t/f...this provided the trigger to get short from this 2nd potential LH on 5min...A LL resulted on this 5min t/f now downtrend, and price continued down until a bounce of the new ascending 4hr trend line after a further knee-jerk leg down after the 0930am Uk data.
I exited the trade as price hit a previous obvious swing lo on the 1hr t/f (ie a previous near-term area where there existed an imbalance of demand/supply) price did indeed bounce from here and went on to form a 3rd LH and then went south again for a further 5min leg down (but that's another story...) The previous 1hr swing lo zone is shown below.
The 5min screenshot shows it more clearly below. You will see the small vounce from the previous 1hr swing lo zone (previous near-term obvious imbalance of demand/supply) before a further 2 x legs down from a 3rd and 4th LH on this 5min t/f;
G/L
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DionysusToast
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Nice legs. Good luck.
Mr. Charts
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bbmac is the winner !
DionysusToast
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errrr - shouldn't we actually have some evidence trades were taken ?
Otherwise people can just pick a chart in retrospect & say something sensible about it.
Otherwise people can just pick a chart in retrospect & say something sensible about it.
Hotch
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Heavens! Do you not trust your fellow members?
wackypete2
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I agree. I thought that was part of the contest. Maybe show a copy of the trade ticket with the entry/exit prices.
BBmac's post was well written though!
Peter
bbmac
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I really don't give a *%^! , I was just taking the opportunity to post something that others may benefit from ...No where does it say on Sharky's post opening this thread that proof of taking the trade is required, but if Sharky requires it I will let him see it. Notwithstanding this
Sharky: please exclude my post from your considerations re prize, God forbid ! Lol !!
G/L
Sharky: please exclude my post from your considerations re prize, God forbid ! Lol !!
G/L
DionysusToast
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Chill BB - no-one is accusing you of anything.
Just that we should all be able to show we took the trades, otherwise the comp will degrade into nothing more than an exercise in 20/20 hindsight.
Don't you agree?
Can't be that hard to provide a screen print - lead by example.
Just that we should all be able to show we took the trades, otherwise the comp will degrade into nothing more than an exercise in 20/20 hindsight.
Don't you agree?
Can't be that hard to provide a screen print - lead by example.
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shadowninja
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Live trade
FX Pair: EURUSD
Entry level: Long from 1.35346
Stop loss: 1.35246 (10 pip stop)
Target: around 1.3557
Chart
1 minute chart, using trendlines.
Justification
I am trading on the breakout of the trendline which could fail. If it doesn't then I lose 10 pips. Expected target is around 1.3557 which gives me about 20 pips profit. I will be watching around the target level to see how the price reacts. If it has difficulty breaking through, then I will exit. If it just smashes through, then I'll ride the move like a surfer who walked through superglue.
Comments
Updates
Post-trade analysis
It would have proven prudent to have exited at around 1.3546 as you can see from the M1 charts that it was struggling to head north. From my observations, however, it's very possible to see 30-40 pip moves after such a breakout and we don't want to confuse ourselves with just trading fakeouts for 5-10 pips as that requires a different strategy with different stop losses and a different position management approach.
It is now at the original stop level, so my previous observations suggest that moving the stop to break even was a good idea.
FX Pair: EURUSD
Entry level: Long from 1.35346
Stop loss: 1.35246 (10 pip stop)
Target: around 1.3557
Chart
1 minute chart, using trendlines.
Justification
I am trading on the breakout of the trendline which could fail. If it doesn't then I lose 10 pips. Expected target is around 1.3557 which gives me about 20 pips profit. I will be watching around the target level to see how the price reacts. If it has difficulty breaking through, then I will exit. If it just smashes through, then I'll ride the move like a surfer who walked through superglue.
Comments
- Ye gads, I didn't realise the gif was that colour/low quality. It's as if I'm trading from the USSR.
- Yes, it's a real trade, hence the green and red horizontal lines denoting my entry and stop levels.
- This is the first time I've ever shown anyone a live trade. I feel like Kate Adie. By that, I mean it's as if I am a reporter live in the war zone rather than I want to shag a 65 year old female news correspondent.
Updates
- Stop to break even at 10 pips profit. I will see how the price moves when it approaches my target. Come on, you mofo. Shoot up 100 pips so I can look like some kinda trading god, get subscribers to pay me £1000 a week and give webinars from my yacht in Bermuda!!!
- It's fallen 10 pips since seeing a 15 pip profit but I have not exited as I am watching how it behaves at the support level of 1.354-ish.
- Ok, stopped out for zero profit. C'est la vie.
Post-trade analysis
It would have proven prudent to have exited at around 1.3546 as you can see from the M1 charts that it was struggling to head north. From my observations, however, it's very possible to see 30-40 pip moves after such a breakout and we don't want to confuse ourselves with just trading fakeouts for 5-10 pips as that requires a different strategy with different stop losses and a different position management approach.
It is now at the original stop level, so my previous observations suggest that moving the stop to break even was a good idea.
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