Zerologic
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Bullish gap EURUSD price back near the previous high
In trading earlier this week, the EURUSD price opened at 1.08739, much higher than last Friday's closing price at 1.08309. The bullish gap is also clearly visible on the H4 timeframe.
It seems that the time approach of the US elections which will be held on November 5 provides support for the strengthening of the USD. The US dollar index (DXY) is now at 104.317 up from 103.679. It is not yet known who will be the winner of the US election, the ABC News poll results also show a tight competition between Trump and Harris with Harris' poll results being slightly superior to Harris's with 47.9% for Harris and 46.9% for Trump.
Apart from the US election, another factor driving the USD is the US employment report data. The NFP report indicated that estimated employment payrolls for several industries were affected by the hurricane, which was identified on the Florida Gulf Coast on September 26, 2024. NFP data was 12k smaller than the expected 106k, while the Unemployment Rate was 4.1% the same as the previous period's revision. Meanwhile, ISM Manufacturing PMI 46.5 was smaller than expected 47.6 smaller than the previous revision 47.2.
In the future, investors will also pay attention to the Fed's interest rates, which are predicted to cut interest rates by 25 bp from the previous 5.00% to 4.75%. According to the FedWatch tool, the possibility of the FED cutting interest rates by 25-50 bp is 95.4% and the possibility of interest rates remaining unchanged is only 4.6%.
Today there doesn't seem to be any high-impact news on the economic calendar, in Japan the bank holiday commemorates Culture Day which allows the Tokyo session to be affected by this bank holiday.