Today market outlook

[Zerologic]

Does USDJPY has the potential to extend its decline?

Last week the price of USDJPY tended to draw a downtrend pattern since September 2 sequentially the price drew bearish candlesticks with lower lows.

At the weekend, before the release of NFP data, the USDJPY rose to 143,884, but the lower-than-expected NFP data caused the USDJPY price to continue its decline at a low of 141,723 before rebounding to 142,296. NFP data showed 142k lower than the expected 164k though higher than the previous revision of 89k. On the other hand, the US Unemployment Rate met expectations at 4.2% from the previous revision of 4.3%.

UUSDJPY is a pair often linked with carry trade strategies because Japan's low interest rates allow investors to borrow money at low interest rates to invest in currencies with high interest rates.

The forecast that the FED will cut interest rates is still the focus of traders, according to the CME group's FedWatch tool, the forecast for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 bps increased by 71%, while the forecast for a 50 bps cut fell by 29%. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates on September 18.

Today, some news that may be of concern is Japanese GDP data which is expected to be 0.8%.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold prices rose on Monday, still within a range

Gold prices fell at the end of last week due to mixed US economic data. Gold prices rose to a high of $2,528, but failed to extend the increase after the NFP and Unemployment rate data were released. Gold prices plunged to a low of $2484 on the same day and closed at $2496.

Friday's NFP data showed the US added fewer jobs than expected in August. The data indicates that the labor market is weakening overall and therefore, there is a greater chance for the Fed to make a larger 0.50% interest rate cut rather than the standard 0.25% in September.

Seeing these expectations should be good for gold as a non-yielding asset when interest rate expectations are lower. However, gold failed to continue its increase due to mixed other data. The Unemployment Rate, fell to 4.2% from 4.3% as expected, and wage growth increased 0.4% on the month, beating the 0.3% forecast.

The mixed US economic data caused gold prices to fall below $2500 before rebounding again. In general, gold prices are still moving within the market range of around $2500.

Meanwhile, data from the PBoC shows no increase in bank gold reserves. As is known, China is the world's largest gold importer apart from Türkiye and India.

Investors may still be waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates this month, expected September 18. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the target probability of a 0.25% cut is 70% and the probability of a 0.50% cut is 30%.

 

[Zerologic]

EURGBP turbulence to low 0.84256, Claimant Count Change lower than forecast

EURGBP fell yesterday drawing a bearish candle with a long shadow on the top candle. Price formed a high of 0.84470 and a low of 0.84226.

There is a gap in today's candlestick change where the open price at 0.84186 is lower than the previous closing price.

Yesterday the Claimant Count Change data which measures people claiming unemployment showed the actual data at 23.7k, much lower than the expected 95.5k and the previous revision of 102.3k.

The actual data which is lower than the forecast is theoretically good for the GBP currency, and it seems that the stable German Final GDP data is not able to encourage the strengthening of the Euro.

Today, there is news related to the GBP currency that is expected to trigger volatility. The main focus is on GDP with a forecast of 0.2% higher than the previous data revision of 0.0%.

Apart from GDP news, there are also Construction output, goods trade balance, index of services, industrial production and manufacturing production.

 

[Zerologic]

Silver prices are up but still within a range

In yesterday's trading session, Silver rose drawing a bull candle with a long body with on top and bottom candle wicks. This precious metal is often positively correlated with gold, but sometimes the two have anomalous differences. Some traders take advantage of this correlation to hedge.

In this week's trading, the Silver price tried to rise after two weeks of a downward trend, three Silver lines drew bulls candles below the middle band line but were still in the price range of 27,600 - 29,100. The countries that import the most silver are the US, Canada, Hong Kong, the UK, and Türkiye. Paying attention to these countries' economic development could be useful.

Yesterday the US core CPI data was higher than expected, the actual data was 0.3% from the expected 0.2%, while the CPI month-to-month and CPI year to year were relatively the same as expected, cooler than the previous year.

Silver price fluctuations were high in response to the CPI release, rising from a low of 28,059 to a high of 28,714. The market seems to be still waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates at the September 17-18 meeting. Whether the Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps or 50 bps is debated. According to the Fedwatch tool from the CME Group, the forecast for the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 bps falls to 15% while the forecast for a 25 bps cut rises to 85%.

Today investors will focus on US PPI data and unemployment claims. Core PPI is expected to be 0.2% from the previous revision of 0.0% and unemployment claims are expected to be the same 227k as the previous revision.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold set a new record high after releasing PPI data and jobless claims.

After moving in a trading range for several weeks, gold prices finally broke out, and a new all-time high printed yesterday. Price draws a bullish long body candlestick with almost no shadow. Price drew a high of $2559 with a low of $2510.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in August. Prices for final demand services increased 0.4 percent, and the index for final demand goods was unchanged. Prices for final demand advanced 1.7 percent for the 12 months ending in August.

Meanwhile, Unemployment Claims data showed an increase of 230k, higher than the expected 227k, with a revision of the previous data of 228k. This lower value does not support strengthening the US Dollar because the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health due to consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.

On the other hand, China's second quarter gold reserves according to tradingeconomics were 2.28K tons, the same number as the first quarter of 2024 but higher than the fourth quarter of 2023. In the Chinese market, gold is showing a rise.

Meanwhile, according to the FedWatch tool from the CME Group, the forecast for the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 bps is down by 72% and a cut by 50 bps is up by 28%. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates on September 18.

 

[Zerologic]

CHFJPY extended its decline at the end of the week by drawing a long body bearish candlestick with almost no shadow. Price drew a high of 166.655 and a low of 165.565 at the FXOpen chart. This extends the bearish sentiment of the CHFJPY pair since September 3 with its up and down wave fluctuations.

CHFJPY price broke the lower band on September 6, an indication that market volatility is starting to increase. In 52-week trading, the CHFJPY price range is in the range of 159.98 - 180.06. This pair is one of the popular cross pairs and may be quite interesting considering its high volatility. However, as a cross-currency pair traders may consider the spread fee.

The current SNB interest rate is 1.50% which was released in June from the previous 1.50%, the SNB's highest interest rate is 1.75% since 2023 and has been cut twice from 1.50% to 1.25%. This month traders will wait for the SNB and BOJ interest rate policies which may affect currency values.

The BOJ interest rate is now at 0.25%, the highest since the negative interest rate policy ended. The BOJ exited negative interest rates in April 2024 with an interest rate of 0.10% which then rose to 0.25% in July, and this month traders will wait for the BOJ's policy on interest rates.

Economic news that may be of concern to CHFJPY pair traders today is Swiss PPI data which is expected to rise 0.1% from the previous data revision of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the Bank Holiday in Japan is the Respect for the Aged Day. This may affect JPY currency transactions. Apart from banks in Japan, bank holidays are also held in China to commemorate the Mid-Autumn festival.

 

[Zerologic]

EUR/USD rose across the middle band on hopes of the Fed lowering interest rates

EUR/USD price on Monday continued its rise after ending consolidation near the middle band line. Bank holidays in Japan and China don't seem to have much influence on the EURUSD market and the volatility market remains high.

EUR/USD price rose forming a long-body bullish candlestick with almost no shadow reflecting significant gains with little selling pressure.

The Fed, according to the economic calendar schedule Forexfactory, will announce its interest rate policy on September 19 which is expected to fall to 5.25% from the previous 5.50%.

Meanwhile, according to the Fedwatch tool from the CME group, the potential for the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 bps has increased by 67%, while the potential for a 25 bps cut has fallen to 33%. This change was caused by US economic data last week which strengthened hopes that the Fed might surprise the market with a 50 bps cut.

Today the important economic data that investors are focusing on is US retail sales. Core retail sales are expected to fall 0.2% from the previous revised 0.4%, and retail sales are expected to be -0.2% from the previous 1.0% to be released by the US Census.

 

[Zerologic]

US retail sales data brings gold pullback

After reaching a record high, gold was reluctant to continue its rise ahead of the Fed's meeting to cut interest rates this week. Gold prices yesterday fell to a low of $2560 from a high of $2586 after the US released retail sales data.

US Retail Sales rose 0.1% in August monthly, compared to a revised 1.1% increase recorded in July. However, this was above consensus expectations of a fall of 0.2%, according to data from the US Census Bureau.

US Retail Sales excluding Autos, meanwhile, rose 0.1% after a 0.4% rise in July. This was below the forecast of a rise of 0.2%.

The retail sales data does not seem to support the strengthening of the dollar, but the impact on gold is different.

Gold prices briefly soared to a new all-time high of $2,589 as bets on the Fed cutting double interest rates increased. According to the FedWatch tool from the CME group, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points rose by 67% while the probability of a cut by 25 basis points fell by 37%.

In theory, the Fed's interest rate cut will provide support for gold as a non-yielding asset. Many analysts provide bullish support for gold, one of which is Michaël van de Poppe, Founder of MN Consultancy, who predicts a 10-year bullish commodity market including gold.

Today there are no high-impact news releases in the economic calendar, but investors will probably consider US Building Permits data which measures permits for building new residential buildings which is estimated at 1.41M from the previous revised data of 1.40M.

 

[Zerologic]

Markets are volatile the Fed cuts interest rates in half including NZDUSD

The Fed finally cut interest rates by 0.50%, higher than the forecast of 0.25%, so that the Fed interest rate is now 5.00%.

The market looks volatile in response to the Fed's interest rate data, all currency pairs with the USD are experiencing turbulence. Gold briefly soared to $2600 but fell again to around $2547. Other currency pairs such as EUR/USD, and GBP/USD experienced similar conditions, rising then falling.

The NZD/USD pair also experienced turbulence after the Fed cut interest rates, this pair drew a bullish candlestick with a long wick on the top candle indicating that a strong rally came under high selling pressure. Yesterday's price formed a low of 0.61809 and a high of 0.62769 closing at 0.62085. The price soars up and then back to the starting point near the middle band line.

Looking for fresh insights into the health of New Zealand's economy, investors will focus on second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be published later today. Zealand's GDP is predicted to fall -0.4% from the previous 0.2%, if the actual data is higher than the forecast it is expected to be good for NZD.

However, investors are also paying attention to US data, especially the FOMC economic projections and Unemployment Claims, which are predicted to be 230k, the same as the previous revision of 230k.

 

[Zerologic]

USDJPY moves below the middle band ahead of the BoJ policy rate

USDJPY yesterday drew a bullish small body candlestick with a long wick on the top candle indicating the price had reached 143,937 and closed at 143,606. A UOB group analyst predicts USDJPY could test the 144.00 resistance which could trigger a rise towards 145.50.

The Japanese Yen weakened yesterday even though the Fed had cut interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday which caused market turmoil including USDJPY. Yesterday's FOMC and unemployment claims supported the strengthening of the US dollar as one of the reasons for the weakening of the Japanese Yen.

Fed policymakers raised their long-term projection for the Federal Funds rate from 2.8% to 2.9%. Meanwhile, the actual Unemployment Claims data was 219k smaller than the forecast 230 from the previous revision of 231k.

Today traders will focus on the BoJ interest rate forecast unchanged at 0.25% with an eye on the potential for future interest rate increases in the monetary policy statement.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold hit a new record high on hopes of global central banks cutting interest rates.

On Friday the price of gold surged to reach a new record high of $2625 on the FXOpen platform. With the soaring gold price in addition to the Fed's policy of cutting interest rates, there is also hope that global central banks follow the Fed's policy of easing policy.

Several global central banks have lowered interest rates, such as the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, and the Central Bank of the Philippines reduced its interest rate by 250 bp to 7.0%. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates at its next meeting.

The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged with some speculating a rate hike is on the way. The People's Bank of China (PboC) also kept interest rates unchanged at 3.35%.

Goldman Sachs Research forecasts gold prices could reach $2,700 at the start of the year on the back of Fed interest rate cuts and gold purchases by developing country central banks, and growing concerns about the US debt burden.

Geopolitical risk factors also support gold as a safe-haven asset amidst global economic uncertainty and anticipation in the event of a major third world war. Countries such as China, Taiwan, Russia, Europe, and the Middle East are currently making massive purchases of gold as a safe-haven asset.

Today the Japanese bank holiday may affect market liquidity, but traders are also paying attention to US manufacturing PMI and service PMI news.

 

[Zerologic]

AUD/USD strengthens ahead of RBA policy on the horizon

Yesterday the AUDUSD currency pair drew a bullish candlestick with a short shadow at the top of the candle indicating the strengthening of the Australian dollar against the US dollar. Price formed a high of 0.68537, a low of 0.67960, close at 0.69374.

The performance of the Australian dollar strengthened ahead of the RBA making its interest rate policy decision today. Analysts forecast that the RBA will keep interest rates unchanged at 4.35% with inflationary pressure remaining as expected and job growth optimistic.

Therefore, investors will pay more attention to RBA officials' statements to get clues about future policy by looking at hawkish or dovish statements.

On the other hand, the Fed is predicted to make cuts in November. According to the CME group's FedWatch tool, the forecast for a 50 basis point cut is 49.5% and the forecast for a 25 basis point cut is 50.5%. Meanwhile, in a Reuters poll, 100 economists predicted the Fed would cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

On the other hand, US manufacturing PMI data showed data of 47.0 lower than the predicted 48.6 from the previous revision of 47.9. Meanwhile, the services PMI showed actual data of 55.4, higher than the forecast of 55.3 but still below the previous revision of 55.7.

Today, apart from the market highlighting the RBA interest rate, it is also paying attention to The Conference Board (CB), which assesses consumer financial confidence which is forecast to rise to 103.9 from the previous 103.3.

 

[Zerologic]

Canadian Dollar strengthens against US Dollar, BOC Gov Macklem Speaks highlighted.

This week USDCAD experienced a significant decline, extending the previous week's decline. Yesterday the price drew a long body bearish candlestick indicating a strong decline forming a high of 1.35363 and a low of 1.34783 on FXOpen's chart. The price draws a bearish candlestick body along the middle band point to the lower band.

Recently, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem stated that core inflation would continue to ease as expected and the inflation rate would get closer to the target of 2%, and keep inflation in the range of 1%-3%. Furthermore, there is a possibility that the BoC will reduce interest rates if all the incoming data supports a cut. The next decision is scheduled for October 23.

Market analysts now forecasted the possibility of interest rate cuts of 25 basis points at the next seven meetings. Since June the BOC has lowered interest rates in the last three decisions with a cumulative drop of 75 basis points to 4.25%.

Today, although there is no high impact category news schedule for the Canadian Dollar, traders may pay attention to data on US new home sales and Crude oil inventories.

 

[Zerologic]

USDCHF Rises Ahead of SNB Policy Rate

Yesterday USDCHF rose sharply drawing a long body bullish candlestick with almost no shadow on the top and bottom of the candle. Price formed a low of 0.84144, a high of 0.85067, and closed at 0.85012 on the FXOpen platform. Price rises from the lower band to approach the upper band line.

Ahead of the SNB interest rate decision the Swiss Franc performed weakly due to the strengthening of the USD which was supported by higher-than-expected US new home sales data. Actual new home sales data shows 716k from the forecast of 699k. However, the actual data is still lower than the previous revision of 751k.

The SNB is predicted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points from 1.25% to 1.00% in its interest rate policy decision which will be released today. Analysts expect the SNB to cut interest rates further as the Swiss economy's annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) has slowed to 1.1% in August. Investors will also look at the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment which may provide a picture of hawkish or dovish policy in the future.

Meanwhile, the Fed is predicted to cut interest rates by up to 50 basis points at its November meeting. According to the FedWatch tool by the CME Group, forecasts of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points rose by 59.2%, and forecasts of a 25 basis point cut by 40.8%.

Today investors are also waiting for US GDP data which is forecast at 3.0%, the same as the previous revision, and Unemployment Claims which is forecast at 224k from the previous revision of 219k. Markets will also consider Fed Chair Powell Speaks which may provide a hawkish or dovish policy picture before further interest rate decisions.

 

[Zerologic]

GBPUSD rises to hit new highs amid supportive US data

USD strengthened amid supportive US data, US GDP showed actual data of 3.0%, in line with expectations, the same as the previous revision of 3.0%. On the other hand, Unemployment Claims showed actual data of 218k lower than the forecast of 224k from the previous revision of 222k. Meanwhile, Core Durable Goods Orders were 0.5% higher than the forecast of 0.1% from the previous revision of -0.2%. Advance durable goods 0.0% from forecast -2.8% from the previous revision of 9.8%.

GBPUSD yesterday drew a long-body bullish candlestick with a Low of 1.33000, a high of 1.34335, and a close at 1.34140 on the FXOpen platform. The pair has set new record highs throughout 2024.

The Fed has recently cut interest rates by 50 basis points which has had an impact on global markets, some investors are even predicting the possibility that a rate cut might be carried out by the Fed in response to the slowing US economy even though the Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week confirmed the Fed's move is not a quick response to potential recession data, but rather a precautionary step to help shore up the US workforce.

According to the FedWatch tool from the CME Group, the forecast for the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 51.1%, and the forecast for a 25 basis point cut is 48.9%.

Today, investors are waiting for the release of Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data, which is the Fed's most preferred indicator in determining the direction of interest rate policy. The Core PCE Price Index is forecast at 0.2%, the same as the previous revision of 0.2%.

 

[Zerologic]

The increase in gold prices was paused after the PCE data was released

Last week gold prices reached a record high of $2685 on Thursday, then gold prices declined on Friday to a low of $2642 on the FXOpen platform. One of the reasons for the decline in gold may be due to the release of PCE data.

Quoted from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the PCE price index increased by 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1%. Real DPI increased by 0.1% in August and real PCE increased by 0.1%; goods increased by less than 0.1% and services increased by 0.2%.

Previously it was estimated that the Core PCE price Index was 0.2%, after the release it was only 0.1%. Lower values are usually less favorable for a currency. PCE is one of the Fed's main inflation measures for interest rate policy, low inflation allows the Fed to cut interest rates for real economic growth.

According to the FedWatch Tool by CME Group, the Fed's forecast for cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 52.8% and the forecast for a 25 basis point cut is 47.2% on November 7 next month.

Today's news that may concern investors is China's Manufacturing PMI which is forecast to rise to 49.4 from the previous revision of 49.1. Chinese economic data is considered important by gold traders because China is one of the largest global gold-importing countries. PMI values below 50 are usually still considered contraction, and values above 50 indicate expansion.

On the other hand, geopolitical turmoil still supports the trend of gold as a safe-haven asset. Fears of the outbreak of nuclear war could increase the value of gold as investors' most sought-after precious metal.

 

[Zerologic]

USDJPY rebounds half body of previous candlestick, waiting for Japanese job data

The USD/JPY currency pair at the end of last week drew a long bearish candlestick with a long shadow on the top candle. In trading on Monday, the price rebounded half the body of the previous candle with a low of 141,636 and a high of 143,907 on the FXOpen platform.

The new Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba who won the Japanese prime ministerial contest has given a dovish statement weighing on the Japanese Yen where according to him monetary policy should be accommodative as the trend and directs it to depend on data. At its September meeting the BOJ left interest rates unchanged at 0.1%-0.25%.

On the other hand, the Fed indicated the possibility of reducing interest rates back to normal if all recovery targets can be achieved. "Going forward, if the economy expands broadly as expected, policy will move toward a more neutral stance over time," Powell said in Nashville, Tenn. at a conference hosted by the National Association for Business Economics.

Today investors are waiting for Japan job data. Japanese Unemployment Rate is forecasted to fall by 2.6% from the previous revision of 2.7%. Data will released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan. Apart from that, traders will also anticipate hawkish statements in the BOJ Summary of Opinions news release which may provide projections for future monetary policy.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold prices rose amid heated geopolitical risks

Yesterday the price of gold rose again to around $2661 on the FXOpen platform. The price of gold yesterday formed a low of $2631 and a high of $2672 after falling to $2624 in trading on Monday.

The confrontation between Iran and Israel is thought to be one of the reasons gold rose again. Meanwhile, gold-selling activity was somewhat limited amid Western investors' concerns about increasing monetary inflation due to the Fed's aggressive easing in response to worsening economic and financial conditions despite Powell's dismissal of this rumor.

The US Manufacturing PMI released yesterday showed 47.2% matching the figure recorded in August, lower than the forecast of 47.6. Services PMI is 51.5% and Hospital PMI at 58.6%. Meanwhile, JOLT Job Openings data showed 8.04m higher than the forecast of 7.64m with the previous revision of 7.71M according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Today, the Chinese Bank holiday commemorates National Day, which may affect the liquidity and volatility of gold considering that China is one of the largest gold importers besides Türkiye and India.

Traders will also anticipate the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change forecast at 124k higher than the previous revision of 99k. Significant differences between actual data and forecasts may influence the market.

 

[Zerologic]

CHFJPY surged amid Japanese monetary releases

The Japanese Yen weakened yesterday against several other currencies USD, EURO, and CHF. The CHFJPY pair jumped up yesterday forming a bullish candlestick with a low of 169,229 and a high of 172,472 on the FXOpen platform.

Yesterday the BOJ's monetary base report showed data of -0.1% lower than the forecast of 0.8% with a revision of the previous data at 0.6%. This report shows Changes in the total amount of domestic currency in circulation and current account deposits held at the BOJ. Meanwhile, the BOJ interest rate is currently still at 0.25%.

Meanwhile, the SNB interest rate is now 1%, hinting at further rate cuts. The SNB has cut interest rates 25 bps from the previous 1.25% to 1.% due to the decline in Swiss inflation. The SNB now forecasts average inflation of 1.3% in 2024, 0.6% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026.

It is thought that the SNB aims to weaken the Franc as Swiss exporting companies echo the negative impact that the expensive Swiss Franc is having on them. SNB communications suggest to markets that further rate cuts are still in the pipeline.

Today traders are focused on Swiss CPI data which is forecast to fall 0.1% from the previous 0.0%.

 

[Zerologic]

GBPUSD extends losses on BoE governor's dovish comments.

Yesterday GBPUSD fell drawing a long bearish candlestick with a small shadow at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 1.32700 and a low of 1.30914 on FXOpen. The pair fell over 1% and traded around 1.31250 on dovish comments by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, who said that the central bank could become more active in rate cuts if inflation eases. Meanwhile, the Final Services PMI from global S&P sources showed that actual data was lower than forecast, also weighing on the Sterling.

On the other hand, the US ISM Services PMI economic data showed actual data of 54.9%, higher than the forecast of 51.7% and the previous data revision of 51.5%. Manufacturing PMI at 47.2% matching the figure recorded in August. Hospital PMI at 58.6% 5.3-percentage point increase from the July reading of 53.3 percent.

Meanwhile, Unemployment Claims showed actual data of 225k, higher than the forecast of 222k and the previous revision of 219k. This mixed economic data is still encouraging the USD to strengthen.

Today investors are waiting for Non-Farm Employment Change data which is predicted to increase by 147k from the previous revision of 142k. Furthermore, the Unemployment Rate is predicted to be 4.2%, the same as the previous revision.