Time To Go Long

So here goes,
Yesterday we saw an extramly whipy market. Its true I have lossed some $$££ (£4000) trying to get in and build up postions.
My stops got hit time and time again.
Last night we saw sharp selling on the fed anouncement on that I put my buy orders into place. 1180 , 1185, 1190, 1195, 1200. now holding 20 long.
Towards the end of yesterdays business I had to reduce my postion as the acount did not have the equity to hold over night. So 20 long with nice profits at last.
As this is a long term trade I will use another accoount to hedge any down side.
The sale of 1150 puts that was also in the stratogy did not happen due to the speed of how things happened last night.
We got the reversal I was looking for I admit I was a little early calling this.
Happy trading
 
Yesterday caught me out with equity problems ( the shorting gained $$ and the longs lossed resulting in closing half the longs.
Still long 10 on one acct and 10 on another.
If this holds we are on a winner.

Tomorrow is whiching so tarde with caution lots of volitility, should close to the upside and follow through .
Not out of the woods untill 1200 is breached but lots of bargins to be had.

$280 Billion to suport the markets by national banks !

We going to have such a rally !

Wheyyyy will be buying again , this feels like the lows are in for this month. to me its a one way street till Monday then will review my longs.

Make no mistake buying agressively on the dips today with a stratogy to hold an extra 10 over night resulting in 30 minis long with a max of 100 to be held intra day.

THE BULLS ARE BACK
 
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Running with the bulls.

Next time I am looking at a VIX reading over 42 the day before options expiry, remind me to buy 1,000 or so $0.01 out of the money Calls. They paid out 174 to 1.

Happy to have gotten away with some dollars in the recent slide.

And now the bulls will reign.

Z.Z.
 
Its been a whip saw day again.

Now we see S+P above 1200 and holding 30 long minis

At one point was holding 100 long, as like before this postion will be headged with another account on down ward moves.

Sitting on a few quid profit now.

Friday will close much higher so giving this long trade time to settle.

Good Luck all who have followed my thread.
 
Closed all long from an average of 1280 positions at 1241 = 61 points or 244 ticks at $375 a tick for a nice profit. Works out at just under £50K after fees.
Will not mention intra day profits as not posted those trades.
For those who have followed this thread may have thought I was been a little mad at times.
Indeed its true i are as mad as they come loll. :)
Can not win them all, however if the risks are minimal and the possible out come is much greater than the risk its worth sticking to the strategy.
Will be doing nothing now until first week in October.

Stay safe and beware of todays actions on footsie between 10.00 and 11.00 and most of the day for USA markets.
 
Equities Market will Rebound Temporary

Congressional Republicans and Democrats had reported agreement in principle Thursday on a $700 billion bailout of the financial industry, and said they would present it to the Bush administration in hopes of a vote within days.

In my view the financial crisis has come to a pause, we will see USD rally and stock market rally over the next few days or even weeks.

Yen being a barometer of fear in the financial market has been signalling of a bear rally for the past few days.

To tap on this rally, I had bought 1 lot of Dow Jones mini:

Bought 1 lot of Dow Jones futures Dec 08 contract at 11124
Stop level at 10824
Target level at 11624
(Value of 1 point is US$5)
 
Game over for any bulls left. Get in your bomb-shelter. Maybe a rally here and there...

Why not use technical indicators instead of news which is baked into the pricing of futures?
You guys had no clue...

"said they would present it to the Bush administration in hopes of a vote within days"

Don't buy off your own hope, my hope, or the US president's hope!
Plan your trade and trade your plan.
 
Agree with Mr J - Wait for the signal, you will not be too late. And be willing to short the market, it makes no sense to be in cash when you could be in a short position.

How much money must have been lost to the thought pattern, 'The market is so low it has to go up from here'?
 
I'm just in on trading so these are exciting times, but also tricky for a newbie like me. From what I read, the market sounds quite positive in general, and yes, the market is incredibly low. If a fresh pair of eyes has any worth, I think there's some way to drop yet, but this week should see a short rally before that on positivity.

I'm also aware that every little snippet of news seems to get magnified. Good=Full economic recovery ahead, Bad=Apocalypse. Anything could upset the applecart. But I have a very small investment and want to make big returns in the short term. I'm thinking of stuffing it all in HBOS on a big risk/high return play, Although maybe Lloyds would be safer. Any thoughts?
 
Hi g00mba - You could trade what you see, not what you think.

There is no reason to think the market is incredibly low. I suppose on 21/09/01 many people said the market was incredibly low - but it went 25% lower to 12/03/03. Where we are now is still 12% above the Sept 01 level. It would not be incredible for it to return to the March 03 level in the next 6 months.

Buying at false bottoms must have cost investors more money than any other single factor over history.
 
tomorton said:
Hi g00mba - You could trade what you see, not what you think.

</snip>

Buying at false bottoms must have cost investors more money than any other single factor over history.
Click to expand...

Sounds like good advice, but how do you know when you hit the real bottom. What are the signs?

I wonder how experienced guys play the market at times like these. Do you speculate or watch for patterns? Are flag patterns and head and shoulder patterns etc. (you can see I'm still quite impressionable) still reliable in this climate or do they make for good rookie fodder?
 
A bottom is a process, not an event and it will only be revealed after it has passed. Dependence on identifying the bottom is relieved if you can short, then you are not building up tension and anticipation of the much-awaited day when you can buy again. In the meantime, your shorts make money as the market falls.

Many indicators will suggest we might be at or near a bottom and you might take small positions in these consecutively in case one of them is right. In the end one of them will be. But best to await confirmation of the turning point by establishment of upward price movement before committing fully.

TA signals do not fail when the market goes beyond a certain points value, but the results from taking thise signals can be more severe. Increased volatility can be a danger if you ordinarily trade a market that moves perhaps 0.5% per session on average, then we move into a period of high volatility such that daily moves can be 2%: it will be easy to be stopped out or whipsawed. It will be tempting to widen or remove your stops and accept more risk, but be cautious about doing this. Might be better to reduce your position size and shorten your holding period to manage risk as a temporary measure. With the right money management there is no reason to be out of the market.
 
imo the clue comes from sentiment not TA - and the first clue to that is when the market starts ignoring bad news.

good trading

jon
 
Tom,

I can see I'm in good hands here. This sounds like mature advice. I can't short at the moment, I'm trading with BARX until I find something better. I've set up an E-trade account which will take a few days to clear. Taking a small position is my only option at the moment as I only have 1k to invest.

As you know I'm no expert, but I imagine the market is going to be particularly volatile tomorrow morning because of last week's news. If I'm right (the first hour trading should confirm this) what is the best way to capitalise with small investment?

At the moment I'm holding £900 of MONY as it is tied to the banks performance, but doesn't have the same risk of collapse (I'm probably overstating here). I have a trailing 5p stop because I'm trying to cover the market swinging around in the first first half hour. I'm going to be subject to that move regardless now, because my money is stuck there. The only thing I can do is move the stop. This must look like roulette to you, but that's where I am at the moment. I was considering HBOS on top, but I'm feeling a bit more cautious now.
 
barjon said:
imo the clue comes from sentiment not TA - and the first clue to that is when the market starts ignoring bad news.

good trading

jon
Click to expand...

What bad news is the market ignoring? It's been bad news for the past year and markets have declined. Indicating that the market has been listening. We've had good news (depending on your viewpoint) this last week. What happens if the market starts ignoring good news? How do you think the market will respond this coming week?

Sorry if I sound naieve.
 
g00mba - I am trading cautiously at present with short holding periods and not much capital at risk. Main aim is always to survive and stay in the game. I have found a series of TA signals I respect because they are siimple, objective and highly likely to be successful if they print on a chart. Have a look at Rivalland on Swing Trading and Street Smarts by Raschke and Connors. These often allow me to enter an order above or below the market's closing price - if it moves my direction in the next session, the order triggers and I am in, and just need to put a stop in and monitor the position as price changes. Risk little capital only, so that even a string of losses will not wipe you out.
 
barjon said:
It certainly hasn't been ignoring bad news, so no apparent change in bearish sentiment yet.

jon
Click to expand...

Ah, gotcha.

Tomorton,

Thanks, I've got Marc Riviland on order, but baulked at Street Smarts for now as it is so expensive. I'm sure it's worth the cover price, but it represents 10% of my investment!
I will get it eventually if I don't lose all my moneyu in the short term :eek:. I just want you both to know that your input continues to be really useful, and maybe you'll have helped me not to get to carried away in the excitement and made me think some sense.

I don't know what you guys use, but have you got any advice on a budget home setup? I'm currently applying for e-trade and plan to use it with quotetracker. Anything else I need?
 
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