Retail Positioning - The Ultimate Contrarian Indicator

[rpmfxtrader]

+250 pips on $GBPJPY on going

Using only the RPM indicator - trade called here in the FF Forum: http://bit.ly/ac3Ttks.

 

[bevok]

I think the sentiment indicator is useful and depending on the quality of the data it is composed of (I haven't been able to find much detail of this) could be a valid part of a trading strategy. A similar concept was described in Alexander Elder's book Entries and Exits - the FCSI created by a Russian dealer called Peter Tatarnikov. I think the key is to recognise that sentiment indicators provide you with a setup - a situation with a higher probability of x happening. Some people also use the COT data although your indicator seems to have more data points. Once you combine a setup using this data with a suitable entry and exit technique and money management system, you could be on your way to developing a very profitable system.

 

[rpmfxtrader]

I had read a couple of Alexander Elder's books, but not that one... that is interesting. My biggest gripe about trading 'strategies' published like that is there is 0 backtesting, and using 1 example, is a complete joke.

I like how he was creative in getting a source for the sentiment data. I totally agree that sentiment should be a part of a trading strategy more then just using it alone.

I look forward to hearing more input from others about their finding of sentiment.

 

[rpmfxtrader]

The EurJpy is being bought at 109.50, a break lower will take out stops.

 

[rpmfxtrader]

EJ is being bought again at 109, I will add to short at 108.70 .

 

[rpmfxtrader]

Out of 1st entry at break even, will still enter 2nd if it's hit and RPM remains high

 

[LoPhatHam]

Hi, rpm. I've recently begun testing your meter. Results so far look promising. My sincere hope is that you can develop it as an .ex4 so I can conduct line studies (S/R, convergence/divergence, etc.) on my own charts.

I'll be keeping a close eye on your blog of course and your thread here on T2W (sucks what happened to your thread on FF ).

Keep up the outstanding work!

 

[rpmfxtrader]

RPM Client updates and RPM Indicator Updates

If you are in the beta testing group,

Thanks for your feedback...

I have made some small changes to the RPM client and Indicator:

RPM Client:
Always On Top option - suggested by Lars

RPM Indicator:
should run w/ much less CPU usage - noted by a few members
updates < 1 min after the RPM updates on all time frames
added default hoizontal lines - suggested by Lars

shoot me an email if you would like the updates

If you would like to participate in the beta testing, I'm looking for ACTIVE contributors.

Thanks,
Matt - rpmfxtrader

 

[rpmfxtrader]

Retail Positioning is pretty flat, hopefully well get some direction this week.... UsdJpy is the closest, however Retail is not fighting the trend, so it's not a good setup in my eyes.

 

[rpmfxtrader]

GbpUsd Setup




GbpUsd Retail was net long, but went net short on break of high. I'm watching this closely for another break high along with retail fighting the trend.

There has been alot of negative news about the GbpUsd in last few weeks and this could aide in the psychology of trading against the price trend.

This is confirmed with the breakout of the range traded EurGbp - also visible with the RPM as Retail switched from net short -1 to net long +1... Retail is starting to fight this trend, Euro weakness and Gbp strength on the EurGbp pairs as well.

Both these lead me to believe the Gbp could strengthen further.

 

[pssonice]

your understanding of the usage of fibonacci lines/zones is quiet poor !

u dont apply all zones

 

[rpmfxtrader]

I entered long into the GbpUsd last night. Stopped out this morning for -40 and -100 pips on two halves. I'm going to wait until more extreme levels are reached on RPM before entering any new trades...

 

[rpmfxtrader]

 

[rpmfxtrader]

 

[Laurus12]

Re: your understanding of the usage of fibonacci lines/zones is quiet poor !

u dont apply all zones

This is not a Fibo thread, but please enlighten us with one picture pssonice. I guess we all are always interested in getting new insights.

 

[rpmfxtrader]

UsdCad Elliott Wave Count

 

[rpmfxtrader]

I hope you guys are catching some of these moves, as retail is fighting trends on Euro. Ill post trades later today. Please post your own as well. Were here to learn from each other!

 

[rpmfxtrader]

Euro buyers fighting the trend

Although I missed the initial big move after Non-Farm, I don't think that this story is over. Retail is finally taking a position after 2 weeks of standing on the sidelines, unfortunately they are picking bottoms again. This usually doesn't end well.

I have two positions open. My guess is that the market will gap down on the open, but you never really know. I had never wished it wasn't Friday so badly as I feel these moves have a lot more to go, but being Friday, speculators are reluctant to hold positions over the weekend.

I am going to do a webinar about RPM trading this coming Friday. I will send out an email later. If there is anything in particular you would like me to cover, please send me an email.

 

[sebastionay]

Could you please elaborate more on the indicator such as:

Which data feed/s does the indicator use?

Ive been searching for a better retail sentiment indicator as I think its probably the best contrarian indicator.

FXCM shares data but only at select intervals, duckascopy also shares on a more frequent basis of 30mins that's the one im currently using

http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/sentiment/

 

[rpmfxtrader]

All info about the indicator is on my blog and in videos.