Time & Price, Volume Confirms

[counter_violent]

An oldie if you fancy a bit of Socrates

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/psychology-risk-money-management/10672-journey-basement.html

thanks for that

 

[robster970]

thanks for that

Thought that would make you smile. His Lesson 1 is actually a good description of what goes on really.

 

[MajorMagnuM]

Well it's interesting that you use the word "concensus"
Have you considered that these equibars tend to appear when there is "whole market concensus" perhaps that is the filter required !

had not considered this angle!

 

[robster970]

had not considered this angle!

I was waiting for that response.

This is why understanding market structure and who all the other participants are is so, so important to ensuring consistent gains.

Do you want to trade with the money or do you want to try and trade against it.......

 

[counter_violent]

I was waiting for that response.

This is why understanding market structure and who all the other participants are is so, so important to ensuring consistent gains.

Do you want to trade with the money or do you want to try and trade against it.......

Look everywhere across the boards...the place is infested with single instrument monkeys going round in circles all scratching their heads wondering why a trade only works sometimes.

 

[robster970]

Look everywhere across the boards...the place is infested with single instrument monkeys going round in circles all scratching their heads wondering why a trade only works sometimes.

I think you are describing me there you [email protected]

 

[counter_violent]

:clap::clap::whistling

 

[MajorMagnuM]

I was waiting for that response.

This is why understanding market structure and who all the other participants are is so, so important to ensuring consistent gains.

Do you want to trade with the money or do you want to try and trade against it.......

with it !

 

[robster970]

with it !

lol - absolutely

 

[robster970]

i shoulda followed up on this sooner but volume has no part to play on anything other than tick data and the reason i pasted thattext was to highlight that the study showed only a 90% correlation between tick and volume when if volume itself is void on anything other than tick why bother?

Volume confirms something - it is in itself not an indicator unless you have T&S in front of you which gives a bit more colour. Price & time are where it's at. I find it interesting that the focus is on the volume alone and nobody is commenting on price & time.

 

[counter_violent]

Volume confirms something - it is in itself not an indicator unless you have T&S in front of you which gives a bit more colour. Price & time are where it's at. I find it interesting that the focus is on the volume alone and nobody is commenting on price & time.

I would, but then I would have to shoot myself.

 

[robster970]

that my point t&s give you the inside and you get a view on spoof and switch and is the only valid use of volume for anything



when you bundle up ticks into a bar of any periodicity it gonna mask what volume got traded at all the levels in that bar



take an example of a big bar say four time the size of anything recent with volume ten times recent per bar whats goona tell you nothing you dont know if 90% of that volume was happening at top bototm or middle of bar or spread evenly and so you drill down and same issue all the way down till uoy get to tick or t&s

But don't you think that in itself, it can stop people from taking dumb-ass trades like breakouts when there is no sustained volume of note to drive it?

BTW - I do agree with you - when you see the orders going through and you can see how the DOM is responding, you generally know what is going on.

 

[malaguti]

But don't you think that in itself, it can stop people from taking dumb-ass trades like breakouts when there is no sustained volume of note to drive it?

hey Rob, I trade off longer timeframes, so excuse me if this is irrelevant to this thread, but on the point of breakouts, I could easily give you 10 examples for every one of yours where volume looked mediocre at the breakout stage and yet still went parabolic.
In fact you only have to look at almost anything from 2009 where the volume compared to previous years has just been dying away
Im not saying volume isn't important, but I don't really see that much correlation between a successful breakout and a failed one.

 

[barjon]

mmm,

momentum = mass x velocity

high mass x low velocity = low mass x high velocity

for mass read volume, for velocity read directional rate of change in price

imo momentum is king - both the coming of it and the going of it (as in Rob's example).

 

[sonofcablemonster]

single instrument monkeys going round in circles all scratching their heads wondering why a trade only works sometimes.........

yeah why make it hard for yourself. Attached daily chart of a custom stock pair price action over last year. buy at 94 and sell at 96. kinell bud mate it aint rocket science.

PS - I am currently long from 94.

GTTY

 

[robster970]

hey Rob, I trade off longer timeframes, so excuse me if this is irrelevant to this thread, but on the point of breakouts, I could easily give you 10 examples for every one of yours where volume looked mediocre at the breakout stage and yet still went parabolic.
In fact you only have to look at almost anything from 2009 where the volume compared to previous years has just been dying away
Im not saying volume isn't important, but I don't really see that much correlation between a successful breakout and a failed one.

OK - that's interesting. As I don't usually trade breakouts I am of course, talking out of my hat and with no experience here.

sustained volume? you gotta seen hundreds of scenarios where price continues to rise/fall on reducing volume so sustained volume isnt the key its sustained momentum and that is independent of volume as it reside entirely within the price structure itslef

You know, I am referring to sustained momentum and drive, not volume itself. I am myself mixing the two things up here, so good point.

And no, it's fine you posting to the contrary - I have no problem with that at all.

time and price confirms but you can live without volume

if you long and you get a higher high than the last bar and a higher low than all is dandy, a higher high and lower low still ok, lower high and higher low we still in the trade, it only when you get a lower high AND a lower low that tells you to be ready to dump and then only if we got a down bar

Have you really distilled it down to just that? Trading off HH/HL/LH/LL?

 

[barjon]

its an error of the first order to borrow formula from an unrelated discipline and presume to fit them to your chosen sphere of interest any way you please but its plain ridiculous to assume you can transpose your preferred units of measure onto that and fit up a neat little solution to a problem that dont even exist



big difference in physics is you dont got peeps each side of a particle one wanting it to go one way and the other and the other price dont exist in a vacuum with no other forces acting upon it



how about mass is price and velocity is time? make just about as much sense more now i think about it as time dont have to move at the same speed some days are just plain flat and others are a real riot come to think of it there even a piece of software that do just that flatten out time across price


i d0nt have any issue with momenyum being king i just dont read it same way as you its all in how much the price is moving over time that momentum that what i trade

Can't really disagree - I was just trying to express the relationship of price and volume and why price sometimes moves fast without much volume in evidence and vice versa.

I've never had much success in introducing volume into the mix, although I think Rob makes a good case for it in the thread. For me, momentum is characterised by strongish directional candlesticks with relatively small pullbacks which tend become smaller as momentum gathers strength. And I don't expect those pullbacks to take very long to complete either.

 

[robster970]

do a bit of other stuff to get my head round context

Like what? Am asking because I do stuff on daily, 4hr and a big old volume profile to tell me where institutional interest is (well my interpretation of it).

 

[LauraRomans]

Thank you for the insight and details.

Do you ever fade the trend following a major decline in volume?

 

[smj]

From the screenshots posted it looks like you fade news events? Correct or not?